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The Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles face off at Super Bowl LVII on Sunday night at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.
Both Kansas City and Philadelphia finished with a 14-3 SU regular season record and both were the top seeds in their respective conference. Kansas City has played two close playoff games, beating the Jacksonville Jaguars 27-20 in the Divisional round before eking out a 23-20 win over the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Title Game.
Meanwhile, the Eagles have had an easy route to the Super Bowl. Philadelphia defeated the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers by an aggregate score of 69-14. During the NFC title game, Philadelphia took advantage of an injury-depleted 49ers team which lost its third and 4th string quarterbacks to injury during the game.
These two teams have played 9 times in the past, with the Chiefs leading their all-time series 5-4. The last time these teams met however was way back on October 3, 2021, when the Chiefs defeated the Eagles 42-30.
The Eagles are currently slight -123 Moneyline favorites at online sportsbook BetOnline with the Chiefs coming back at +103 odds.
The spread has moved up and down since opening. Kansas City opened as the 2.5-point favorites to win Super Bowl LVI. The line swung as far as -2.5 points for the Eagles before settling at -2 for Philly. Then when the Kansas City betting money came, those odds dropped to -1.5 for the Eagles.
On the other hand, the number on the total has been bullish. It opened at 48.5 and is now at 50.5 and could still climb with a couple of days left to bet.
Let us look at the betting trends and make our Super Bowl LVII predictions:
Chiefs vs Eagles Super Bowl LVII ATS Prediction
- During the 2022 season, the Chiefs are 6-3 SU and 1-8 ATS in games decided by four points or fewer. The only time that they covered the spread was last week when they defeated the Cincinnati Bengals.
- Only one of those four games, however, was decided by one point. That game was in Week 5 when the Chiefs defeated the Las Vegas Raiders at home, 30-29.
- The Eagles opened the season with a 38-35 win over the Detroit Lions as 5.5-point spread favorites. After that game, the Eagles played in only two other games decided by fewer than five points.
- One was a 20-17 Week 5 win over the Arizona Cardinals in a game where Philly was a 5.5-point favorite. The other was a last-minute 17-16 win over the Indianapolis Colts in Week 11.
- The Eagles were betting favorites in all but one game played this season. That lone game was in Week 16 against Dallas.
- When favored by 8 points or fewer, the Eagles are 9-3 ATS with Jalen Hurts as their starting quarterback.
- When playing as betting underdogs, the Chiefs are just 1-1 SU and ATS. KC defeated Tampa Bay 41-31 as a two-point bottom dog. They lost to the Buffalo Bills 24-20 as +2.5 point betting underdogs.
- That loss to Buffalo is the only time in Patrick Mahomes’ career where he has failed to cover the spread as the betting underdog.
- Mahomes is 6-3 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in nine games played as an underdog, with all games played during the regular season.
- Sunday’s Super Bowl LVII marks the first time in Mahomes’ 14 career postseason games that he is an underdog.
- The Super Bowl betting favorite has won 64% of all Big Games, going 36-20 SU. Against the spread, however, the favorite and underdog are even at 27-27-2.
- Excluding Super Bowl 49 which was a pick’em game, the underdog is 8-6 SU and 0-4 ATS in the Super Bowl.
- During this span, four Super Bowls had spreads of less than 3 points. The underdog won outright and covered in the first two instances: The Giants beat the Patriots 21-17 at +2.5 point odds in Super Bowl 46 and the Seahawks beat the Broncos 43-9 as a+2.5 bottom dogs at Super Bowl 48.
- The favorite, however, has won the last two, including Kansas City’s 31-20 win over the 49ers as -1.5 point spread favorites at Super Bowl 54.
- Only one of 56 Super Bowls has been decided by a margin of fewer than 3 points. That was in 1991 when the Giants upset the Bills 20-19 as 7-point underdogs.
The market on the Chiefs isn’t as high as you would expect. But that’s because Kansas City had close games with both the Jaguars and Bengals. The Chiefs are also dealing with injuries on both sides of the ball.
Patrick Mahomes suffered a high ankle sprain against the Jaguars. Wide receivers Kadarius Toney, Juju Smith-Schuster, and Mecole Hardman all left the AFC title game with injuries. Defensive standouts Gay and Sneed were also hurt in that game. Those players however have two weeks between their injuries and Super Bowl LVI so the Chiefs had the time to heal up.
The Eagles massacred their previous two playoff opponents winning by an aggregate score of 69-14. Last weekend, Philadelphia took advantage of a 49ers team that ran out of quarterbacks and was forced to play with an injured Brock Purdy because they had no one else to play behind center.
The Chiefs are 7-11-1 ATS this season while the Eagles are 10-9 ATS this year, including 2-0 ATS in the postseason.
Kansas City has not missed Tyreek Hill at all this season. Prior to Sunday’s game. The Chiefs saw their 3 wide receivers get hurt last Sunday and although they had two weeks to heal up, they will be facing a Philadelphia Eagles team that led the NFL in quarterback sacks.
Philadelphia also has the best rushing attack in the NFL and with a dual-threat QB, they should be looking to run the football at Super Bowl LVII. That may be the formula to beat the high-scoring Kansas City machines. While the Chiefs’ defense has improved in recent weeks, they still lean on the arm of Patrick Mahomes to win games.
But not only will Mahomes be facing the best pressure defense in the league, but he will also be playing two weeks after suffering a high ankle sprain. Sure, he’s not missed action due to that injury, but if he’s still hurting, facing the Philly pass rush could be a tough task.
I can see the Eagles running the football as much as they can, limiting Mahomes’ trips to the field. Jalen Hurts will hurt the Chiefs with his arm and legs. This one will be close to what the oddsmakers are predicting. But I think the Eagles will win a tightly-contested Super Bowl by keeping Mahomes on the bench.
Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles
Chiefs vs Eagles Super Bowl LVII Prediction
- The over went 8-2 for the Eagles starting from their 29-21 home win over the Jacksonville Jaguars to their 48-22 victory road victory over the Giants in Week 14. Then Hurts injured his shoulder against the Bears in Week 15 and the trends have since shifted.
- Including the Week 15 game against the Bears, the total has gone under in five out of the Eagles’ last 6 games played. That includes unders in each of their last four games, with Hurts starting all four games.
- During their last 6 games, the Eagles have seen the total go over 45 points only one time. This was during a 40-34 loss to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 16.
- The Week 16 game against the Cowboys was one of only 5 games where the Eagles have hit a total of at least 50 points this season.
- Meanwhile, the Chiefs have seen the total go under in each of their last three games played and 4-1 overall in their last five outings.
- The scores of those four low-scoring games were 24-10 against the Seahawks, 31-13 versus the Raiders, 27-20 opposite the Jaguars, and 23-20 versus the Bengals.
- Since hitting over in a 27-24 win over the Seahawk on Christmas Day, the over has hit only once for the Chiefs, during a 27-24 Week 17 home win over the Denver Broncos.
- Overall the total has gone under in 11 out of the Chiefs’ total 18 games played this season, including the playoffs. The Chiefs and their opponents have combined to score more than 51 points only seven times, with the total landing right at 51 in three other games.
- Additionally, the under cashed in Kansas City’s previous two appearances at the Super Bowl. The score was 31-20 when they beat the 49ers at Super Bowl 54 while the score was 31-9 when they lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Super Bowl 55. Both times, the total was 51 or lower.
- The under is also 4-0 in the last four Super Bowls, including the two games featuring the Chiefs mentioned above.
- The last time that the over hit was in 2018 when the Eagles beat the Patriots 41-33.
- Including that Eagles vs Pats game, the over went on a 5-1 run before the under took over.
- The under is also 9-4 when the Super Bowl total is set at 50 or higher. This includes a 7-1 under mark dating back to Super Bowl 36 during the 2001-02 season. That season, Tom Brady and the Patriots defeated the St. Louis Rams 20-17 for the first of their six Super Bowl wins. The total in that game was set at 53.
- The Eagles have not played in a game this season with a total of 50 or more points. In the games where the total was set between 47.5 to 49.5, the under went 5-2.
- Meanwhile, the Chiefs led the NFL with 11 games having a total of 50.5 or higher. The under went 8-3 in those 11 games.
- In the history of the Super Bowl, the under has not hit in five consecutive years since it went 7-0 from Super Bowl 3 to Super Bowl 9.
Both the Chiefs and Eagles have gone under in each of their last two postseason games and have produced more under games in their recent games, with Kansas City going 4-1 to the under in their last five assignments and the Eagles hitting the under in each of their last four games.
The current total is lower than the closing total of the previous six Super Bowls. That may be surprising given the offensive prowess of both teams. However, both KC and Philadelphia also play with excellent defensive teams which are often overshadowed by how good their offenses have been.
The Eagles were one of the best defensive teams in the NFL during the regular season. They have a very good defensive line that produced a league-best 70 sacks last season.
Their secondary also offered excellent protection against the deep ball and allowed an average of only 1.2 passing touchdowns per game.
As in the previous seasons, the Kansa City defense has stepped up when it mattered most. Their aggressive defensive line is among the best in pressuring opposing quarterbacks. The pass rush was on full display last weekend, registering 5 sacks against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Both teams have excellent offensive units. But you have to think that the Eagles’ best shot at winning this game is to run the football and slow down the Mahomes machine. To do that, they need to slow down the game and keep him off the field.
The under is 9-3 in the combined last 12 games played by the Eagles and Chiefs. The over has not hit since the Eagles were last in the Super Bowl five years ago.
Prediction: Under 50.5
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