Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders 01/07/2023 NFL Odds and Prediction

The Kansas City Chiefs close out their 2022 campaign with a visit to Allegiant Stadium and a date with the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday.

Kansas City is looking to lock up the top seed in the AFC and boast the best offense in the NFL behind leading MVP contender Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs are 13-3 SU on the season and are currently tied with the Philadelphia Eagles at top of the league standings. The Chiefs are 6-2 U on the road this season.

Meanwhile, the Las Vegas Raiders are already out of the playoff hunt but with Jarrett Stidham starting for the first time this year last week, the Raiders still showed plenty of fight in a loss to the San Francisco 49ers. Las Vegas is 6-10 SU on the season and have lost their last two games played. The Raiders are 4-3 SU at home this season.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are playing for the top seed in the AFC playoffs. To do that, they must beat the Raiders on Sunday, regardless of what happens to the Buffalo Bills. With the Bills-Bengals game decided as canceled, the Chiefs now control their destiny. Kansas City is on a roll right now with four straight wins and a 9-1 SU record in their last 10 games played.

Kansas City and San Francisco are the only two teams in the NFL that have gone 5-0 SU against their division rivals this season. The Chiefs are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games played against the Raiders including a 30-29 win in Week 5. Kansas City has lit it up against the Raiders, scoring an average of 35.5 points per game during that span.

Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders are out of the postseason with a 6-10 SU record. Las Vegas faces plenty of questions after the season, most specifically at quarterback. The team benched longtime QB Derek Carr last week, probably ending his tenure with the team. Jarrett Stidham got the start and he played well with 365 passing yards and 3 TD passes but with 2 INTs in a losing effort against the 49ers.

NFL rushing Josh Jacobs was a limited participant in Tuesday’s practice with an oblique injury and took Wednesday off while Davante Adams returned to practice on Wednesday after he was absent with an illness on Tuesday. Stidham was also a limited participant in Tuesday’s practice although head coach Josh McDaniels said he isn’t concerned with Stidham’s injury. But if Stidham can’t go, it will be third-stringer Chase Garbers who will start against the Chiefs.

Chiefs vs Raiders SU Prediction

The Chiefs are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games played against the Raiders. Kansas City is also 6-1 SU in their last 7 games played in Las Vegas.

Kansas City Chiefs SU trends:

• The Chiefs are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games played.
• The Chiefs are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games played on the road.
• The Chiefs are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games played against the AFC.
• The Chiefs are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games played against the AFC West Division.

Las Vegas Raiders SU trends:

• The Raiders are 4-6 SU in their last 10 games played.
• The Raiders are 4-3 SU in their 7 home games played this season.
• The Raiders are 4-9 SU in their last 13 January games.
• The Raiders are 5-6 SU in their last 11 games played against the AFC.

Patrick Mahomes threw a red zone INT last week but despite that, the Chiefs’ QB has seen his MVP odds balloon to -900 in the BetOnline odds board as of Friday morning. Mahomes leads the league in passing yards and passing TDs and ranks second behind Tua Tagovailoa in QB rating. But while one could argue that his odds have soared because of Jalen Hurts’ injury, Mahomes has played very well as of late.

In his last two games, Mahomes has thrown a total of 552 yards with 5 touchdowns and one interception. The Chiefs are now 9-1 SU in their last 10 games played and at 13-3 SU, they are tied with the Eagles for the best record in the NFL. Kansas City has also emerged as the odds-on favorite to win Super Bowl LVII.

The Raiders are out of the playoffs but still, they played hard last week. Jarrett Stidham threw for 365 yards with 3 touchdowns against the league’s top defense in the San Francisco 49ers.

Stidham is only the second QB to throw 3 or more TDs against the Niners this season. He showed impressive mobility with 34 rushing yards on 7 carries while throwing the ball evenly to six receivers. He will most certainly want to show out again with Derek Carr likely out next season.

Much of the Raiders’ success will depend however on the tandem of Stidham and Davante Adams. Last week, they looked great with Adams catching 7 passes for 153 yards with 2 touchdowns.

On the other side, it’s Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. The two combined for 4 TDs during the Chiefs’ 30-29 win in their last meeting in Week 5. The Chiefs trailed 17-0 early in the game before the duo took over. If Mahomes and Kelce click again, this should be another win for the Chiefs.

Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs vs Raiders  ATS Prediction

The Chiefs are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games played against the Raiders. Kansas City is 13-6 ATS in their last 19 meetings in Las Vegas.

Kansas City Chiefs ATS trends:

• The Chiefs are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
• The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
• The Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games against a team with a losing home record.
• The Chiefs are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Chiefs are 8-23-1 ATS in their last 32 versus the AFC.
• The Chiefs are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss.
• The Chiefs are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
• The Chiefs are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The Chiefs are 2-13-1 ATS against a team with a losing record.
• The Chiefs are 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight-up win.
• The Chiefs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 versus the AFC West.

Las Vegas Raiders ATS trends:

• The Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• The Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
• The Raiders are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games played versus the AFC West.
• The Raiders are 6-0 ATS in their last six games played against a team with a winning record.
• The Raiders are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record
• The Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
• The Raiders are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight-up loss.
• The Raiders are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The Raiders are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Raiders are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

Even though this is the last game of the season, the Chiefs still have plenty to play for as they continue to play for the no. 1 seed in the AFC. The Chiefs also want to keep the momentum going as they head to the postseason.

The Chiefs are the top-scoring team in the NFL at 29.1 points per game this season and they also have the no. 1 passing offense in the league this season.

Meanwhile, the Raiders are in the bottom 8 in scoring defense and bottom 6 in total offense allowed. With Mahomes and the Chiefs looking to close out the season with a big win, they should be able to score at will against the sub-par Las Vegas defense.

Stidham looked good in his first start but I don’t expect him to do better here. Even if he does, the Raiders don’t have the same level of firepower as the Chiefs. Neither is Stidham better than Mahomes. Give me the Chiefs to cover with a big win on the road.

Prediction: Chiefs

Chiefs vs Raiders Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone over in each of the last five games played between these two teams. The over is also 4-1 in their last five meetings played in Las Vegas.

 

Kansas City Chiefs over/under trends:

• The over is 10-2 in the Chiefs’ last 12 road games.
• The over is 4-0 in the Chiefs’ last 4 games against the AFC West.
• The over is 7-1 in the Chiefs’ last 8 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The over is 6-1 in the Chiefs’ last 7 games played in January.
• The over is 4-1 in the Chiefs’ last 5 games played versus the AFC.
• The over is 5-1 in the Chiefs’ last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The over is 5-1 in the Chiefs’ last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
• The under is 4-1 in the Chiefs’ last 5 Saturday games.
• The under is 5-2 in the Chiefs’ last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

Las Vegas Raiders over/under trends:

• The over is 5-1 in the Raiders’ last 6 home games.
• The over is 5-1 in the Raiders’ last 6 games against a team with a winning record.
• The over is 9-2-1 in the Raiders’ last 12 home games against a team with a winning road record.
• The over is 6-2 in the Raiders’ last 8 games following a straight-up loss.
• The over is 14-5 in the Raiders’ last 19 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The under is 4-0 in the Raiders’ last 4 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
• The under is 5-1 in the Raiders’ last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
• The under is 4-1 in the Raiders’ last 5 games following an ATS win.
• Under is 7-3 in the Raiders’ last 10 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

The Chiefs have the best offense in the NFL and they rely on that offense to lead them to victory because their defense is ranked in the bottom half of the league. Patrick Mahomes should have a field day against a Las Vegas pass defense that ranks in the bottom 4 in the NFL.

Meanwhile, the Raiders should be able to get scoring opportunities against the mediocre Kansas City defense. Las Vegas is also a mid-tier scoring team at 13th in the NFL with an average of 23.9 points per game scored this season.

These teams have combined to score an average of 54.8 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings and 57.0 points per game in their most recent three head-to-head encounters. This one should be no different.

Prediction: Over 52

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