Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens 09/28/2020 – NFL Betting Odds and Prediction

It’s an AFC battle between the last two MVPs of the league on Monday Night Football when 2018 MVP Patrick Mahomes and the defending champions Kansas City Chiefs visit 2019 MVP Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens on September 28, 2020, at the U.S. Bank Stadium.

These are arguably two of the top teams in the league this season and they are both off to a 2-0 start. The Chiefs edged the Ravens 33-28 in their only meeting of 2019. This could very well be a preview of the AFC Championship game with Kansas City the +275 betting favorites to win the AFC and the Ravens close behind them at +285.

Kansas City Chiefs

The defending champions Kansas City Chiefs had a little scare last week against the Los Angeles Chargers. Kansas City trailed 17-6 late in the third quarter before Patrick Mahomes came through to force overtime where they won the game 23-20 behind a 58-yard field goal by Harrison Butker.

Mahomes threw for 302 yards with a pair of touchdowns. The 2018 MVP has thrown for a total of 513 yards on the year on 51-79 passing with five touchdown passes and only two sacks. Mahomes has also rushed for a total of 54 yards this season. Wideout Tyreek Hill has caught 10 catches for 145 yards while Travis Kelce has 15 catches for 140 yards. Sammy Watkins has also caught eight passes for 93 yards with one touchdown. Running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire leads the ground assault with 176 yards on 33 carries.

The Kansas City defense has allowed an average of 419.5 yards per game this season, including 269 yards through the air. On offense, the Chiefs are averaging 246 passing yards per game and 145.5 yards on the ground. Scoring-wise, their offense is putting up an average of 28.5 points per game this season.

Baltimore Ravens

The Baltimore Ravens are also off to a 2-0 start. In their last outing, the Ravens defeated the Houston Texans 33-16 on the road. Lamar Jackson threw for 204 yards with one passing touchdown while kicker Justin Tucker was 4-4 including a 47-yard field goal that helped the Ravens pick up their second straight win of the season.

Jackson is the 2019 NFL MVP and he is 38-49 passing on the season with a total of 479 passing yards with four touchdown passes but he has been sacked six times. Jackson is also the Ravens leading rusher with 99 yards on 23 carries. Marquise Brown leads the team with 10 catches for 143 yards while Mark Andrews has caught 87 yards on eight catches with two scores. Willie Snead IV has 93 yards on six catches with one touchdown. Gus Edwards is second behind Jackson in rushing with 90 yards on 14 carries.

The Baltimore defense ranks third in total offense with an average of 305 yards per game. Their defense has recorded six sacks with two interceptions. On offense, the Ravens are scoring an average of 35.5 points per game this season and are putting up 168.5 rushing yards per contest.

Who Wins?

Kansas City is 10-0 SU in their last 10 games played. The Chiefs are 7-1 SU in their last eight games played on the road and 9-0 SU in their last nine games against the American Football Conference. Baltimore is 14-1 SU in their last 15 games played. The Ravens are 7-1 SU in their last eight games played on the road, and 11-1 SU in their last 12 games played against the AFC. Head to head, the Chiefs are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played against the Ravens, including 3-0 SU in their last three meetings.

The Chiefs cruised in week one but they faced some adversity last week against the Chargers before pulling through in the overtime period. Patrick Mahomes came to the rescue once again but after two games, he’s thrown only 517 passing yards which say that he hasn’t found his stride yet. The Kansas City offense will be tested by a Baltimore defense that allows just 210.5 yards through the air.

The Ravens are off to a 2-0 start as well and they have done so with great balance on offense and defense. Baltimore has an equally gifted quarterback in 2019 NFL MVP Lamar Jackson. Jackson has thrown for 479 passing yards and has rushed for another 99 yards this season. He’s also getting plenty of ground support at 5.1 yards per carry. I think that Baltimore has a more balanced offense and the better defense at this stage of the season.

Prediction: Baltimore Ravens

Other Bets To Make

The Chiefs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games played. Kansas City is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 September games. The Ravens are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games played. Baltimore is 6-2 ATS in their last eight Monday games but only 1-4 ATS in their last five Week 3 assignments. Head to head, the Chiefs are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games played against the Ravens.

I like the Chiefs a lot and it’s hard to bet on the champs with plus points on them. However, the Ravens have the better defense here. They held a very good offensive Texans team to just 16 points. Mahomes might have the best offense in town but the Chiefs also have a terrific offensive machine in Lamar Jackson who can match Mahomes. However, I think that Baltimore’s defense will be the key here.

Prediction: Ravens -3

The total has gone over in four out of the last six games played by the Chiefs. Kansas City has seen the total go over in four out of their last five games played against the AFC North. The total has gone under in four out of the last five games played by the Ravens. Baltimore has seen the total go over in 12 out of their last 16 games played against the AFC West. Head to head, the total has gone over in six out of the last 10 games between these two teams. The over is also 5-1 in their last six meetings in Baltimore.

These teams have combined to average only 42.5 points per game in their last 10 meetings and 53.33 points per game in their previous three meetings. However, they put up a total of 61 in their most recent outing. Mahomes and Jackson are two of the best quarterbacks in the league at generating offense. I like these teams to put on a high scoring show with Baltimore’s defense coming up with the big stop late in the game that preserves a Ravens win.

Prediction: Over 54

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