Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs 01/29/2023 AFC Championship Game

The Cincinnati Bengal visit Arrowhead Stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2023 AFC Championship game on Sunday. This marks the second consecutive year that these two teams have met at this stage of the postseason. Last year, the Bengals upset the Chiefs 27-24 to advance to the Super Bowl.

Cincinnati is coming off an upset win over Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills last week. Joe Burrow was cooking early and the Bengals took a big lead and never looked back. The Bengals have not lost to the Chiefs with Joe Burrow at the helm.

Kansas City was the favorite heading to last week’s games. However, after QB Patrick Mahomes suffered a high ankle sprain during their game against the Jaguars, the Chiefs’ odds have fluctuated. Cincinnati became the favorites early this week but with Mahomes returning to practice, the odds have shifted in their favor again.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals look to return to the Super Bowl this weekend by repeating against the Kansas City Chiefs. Cincinnati defeated Kansas City last year to win the 2022 AFC title game and advance to Super Bowl LVI.

Joe Burrow is the only QB in the NFL with a 3-0 SU record against Patrick Mahomes and he will look to extend that streak on Sunday. With Mahomes dealing with a high ankle sprain, the Bengals are in good shape to return to the NFL title game. But it’s not just because of Mahomes’ injury.

The Cincinnati defense has allowed more than 20 points just once since they defeated the Chiefs 27-24 in Week 13. That instance was when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers put up 23 in a game in which the Bengal won 34-23. In the playoffs, they have allowed an average of 13.5 points in two games played. The Bengals have conceded just 5 second-half touchdowns in their last 6 games played.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs were on top of the Super Bowl odds boards entering last week’s Divisional Round. However, Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes suffered a high ankle sprain in the first half of their game against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Mahomes returned to play in the second half as the Chiefs beat the Jaguars. However, it was obvious that their vaunted offense looked very different with Mahomes playing hurt. While they were able to escape against Jacksonville, doing the same against Cincinnati could be difficult.

The good news for Kansas City is that Mahomes will be playing and he practiced with the team last Wednesday as a full participant. The question is whether he will be healthy enough to lead the offense and avoid the Cincinnati defense.

Bengals vs Chiefs SU Prediction

The Bengals are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games played against the Chiefs. Cincinnati is also 3-2 SU in their last 5 games played in Kansas City;

Cincinnati Bengals SU trends:

• The Bengals are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games played.
• The Bengals are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played.
• The Bengals are 8-0 SU in their last 8 games played against the AFC.
• The Bengals are 5-0 SU in their last 5 January games played.

Kansas City Chiefs SU trends:

• The Chiefs are 6-0 SU in their last six games played.
• The Chiefs are 5-0 SU in their last five games played at home.
• The Chefs are 5-0 SU in their last five games played against the AFC.
• The Chiefs are 6-1 SU in their last 7 road games against the AFC.

The Bengals are 3-0 SU and ATS versus the Chiefs with Joe Burrow as their starting quarterback. Yes, Mahomes has never beaten Burrow in the NFL. Cincinnati beat Kansas City 27-24 in Week 13. Interestingly, that was the same score when the Bengals beat the Chiefs in the 2022 AFC title game.

Entering last week, Kansas City was the odds-on favorite to win Super Bowl LVII while Patrick Mahomes was the betting favorite to win Super Bowl LVII MVP. However, Mahomes suffered a high ankle sprain during last week’s win over the New York Giants. Although he was able to return during the second half of that game, he was hobbling and obviously was not 100%.

Of course, Mahomes has declared that he will be good to go on Sunday. He’s as tough as they come and he will have a full week to rest his ankle and hope it gets better. Mahomes was a full participant in Kansa City’s last Wednesday so that’s a good sign for Kansas City bettors.

Cincinnati was dominant against the Buffalo Bills last week, so dominant that this game has become an even match-up in the eyes of the oddsmakers and bettors with Mahomes hurt. Kansas City opened as the -2.5 point spread favorites but the odds have flipped and the Bengals went as high as -2.5 themselves. The lines have moved again in Kansas City’s direction with Mahomes seen in practice.

Burrow will be the key to the Bengals’ performance. If he continues to deliver the goods, then the Bengals are in good shape on Sunday. If the Bengals get past the Chiefs, it’s not hard to imagine them winning the Super Bowl. After all, they were one-quarter away from winning it all last season.

With Mahomes compromised, the Chiefs must limit his usage by attacking the ground. Isaiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon combined for 120 yards on 23 carries last week. They need to replicate that effort against the Bengals. Keeping Mahomes in the game will make or break the Chiefs, which is why his teammates must step up.

There’s a chance that Mahomes will be better on Sunday than he was last weekend. But considering that he won’t be 100%, the Chiefs’ offense won’t be 100% either. The Bengals are hungry to return to the Super Bowl and they are the healthier team heading to Sunday’s game.

Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals vs Chiefs ATS Prediction

The Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played against the Chiefs. The home team is also 4-1 ATS in the last five games played between the Bengals and Chiefs.

Cincinnati Bengals ATS trends:

• The Bengals are 36-17-1 ATS in their last 54 games overall.
• The Bengals are 37-17 ATS in their last 54 road games
• The Bengals are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Bengals are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games on grass
• The Bengals are 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 games against a team with a winning record
• The Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The Bengals are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in January.
• The Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• The Bengals are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.
• The Bengals are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS win.
• The Bengals are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games played against the AFC.
• The Bengals are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The Bengals are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 road games versus a team with a winning home record.
• The Bengals are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight-up win.

Kansas City Chiefs ATS trends:

• The Chiefs are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
• The Chiefs are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.
• The Chiefs are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
• The Chiefs are 9-24-1 ATS in their last 34 games played against the AFC.
• The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The Chiefs are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight-up win.
• The Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record.

Mahomes not 100% on Sunday is already an advantage for the Bengals. Then Cincinnati also has the better defense between these two teams. The Bengals shut down the Bills to only 10 points and they are conceding just 13.5 points per game in the current postseason and ranked 6th in scoring defense during the regular season at 20.6 points per game conceded.

The Chiefs are a team that leans on their offense to win them games. They were the no. 1 scoring team in the NFL during the regular season but were just 16th in scoring defense.

I think that Mahomes’ injury is the key here. KC is back as the favorite after Mahomes practiced last Wednesday. But although I think he is playing here, he won’t be 100%.

Prediction: Bengals +1.5

Bengals vs Chiefs Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone under in 9 out of the last 12 games played between these two teams. The under s 5-1 in their last six meetings played in Kansas City.

Cincinnati Bengals over/under trends:

• The under is 15-7-1 in the Bengals’ last 23 games overall.
• The under is 26-10-3 in the Bengals’ last 39 road games.
• The under is 5-0 in the Bengals’ last 5 playoff road games
• The under is 9-1 in the Bengals’ last 10 playoff games
• The under is 13-3-1 in the Bengals’ last 17 games played against the AFC.
• The under is 12-3 in the Bengals’ last 15 games in January.
• The under is 8-2 in the Bengals’ last 10 games versus a team with a winning record.
• The under is 15-6 in the Bengals’ last 21 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The under is 12-5-1 in the Bengals’ last 18 games following an ATS win.
• The under is 12-5-1 in the Bengals’ last 18 games following a straight-up win.
• The under is 34-15-4 in the Bengals’ last 53 games on grass.
• The under is 43-19-2 in the Bengals’ last 64 road games versus a team with a winning home record
• Over is 7-1-1 in the Bengals’ last 9 games following a straight-up win of more than 14 points.
• Over is 5-1 in the Bengals’ last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

 

Kansas City Chiefs over/under trends:

• The under is 4-0 in the Chiefs’ last 4 home games versus a team with a winning road record.
• The under is 6-1 in the Chiefs’ last 7 home games.
• The under is 4-1 in the Chiefs’ last 5 games against a team with a winning record.
• The under is 6-2 in the Chiefs’ last 8 games on grass.
• The under is 8-3 in the Chiefs’ last 11 games following a straight-up win.
• The under is 5-2 in the Chiefs’ last 7 games following an ATS loss.
• The over is 10-4 in the Chiefs’ last 14 games in January.
• The over is 5-2 in the Chiefs’ last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

These teams have combined to score an average of 43.2 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings. They combined for 51 points last December 4th but that was with a healthy Patrick Mahomes.

The Chiefs scored 27 points against the Jaguars last week. But they only scored 10 points with an injured Mahomes as compared to 17 with him at full strength. Mahomes says his first practice this week felt good. But playing in an actual game, much more a playoff game is different. I don’t think the Chiefs’ offense will be as prolific as they were during the regular season.

Prediction: Under 48

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