The Cincinnati Bengal visit Arrowhead Stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2023 AFC Championship game on Sunday. This marks the second consecutive year that these two teams have met at this stage of the postseason. Last year, the Bengals upset the Chiefs 27-24 to advance to the Super Bowl.
Cincinnati is coming off an upset win over Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills last week. Joe Burrow was cooking early and the Bengals took a big lead and never looked back. The Bengals have not lost to the Chiefs with Joe Burrow at the helm.
Kansas City was the favorite heading to last week’s games. However, after QB Patrick Mahomes suffered a high ankle sprain during their game against the Jaguars, the Chiefs’ odds have fluctuated. Cincinnati became the favorites early this week but with Mahomes returning to practice, the odds have shifted in their favor again.
The Bengals look to return to the Super Bowl this weekend by repeating against the Kansas City Chiefs. Cincinnati defeated Kansas City last year to win the 2022 AFC title game and advance to Super Bowl LVI.
Joe Burrow is the only QB in the NFL with a 3-0 SU record against Patrick Mahomes and he will look to extend that streak on Sunday. With Mahomes dealing with a high ankle sprain, the Bengals are in good shape to return to the NFL title game. But it’s not just because of Mahomes’ injury.
The Cincinnati defense has allowed more than 20 points just once since they defeated the Chiefs 27-24 in Week 13. That instance was when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers put up 23 in a game in which the Bengal won 34-23. In the playoffs, they have allowed an average of 13.5 points in two games played. The Bengals have conceded just 5 second-half touchdowns in their last 6 games played.
The Chiefs were on top of the Super Bowl odds boards entering last week’s Divisional Round. However, Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes suffered a high ankle sprain in the first half of their game against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Mahomes returned to play in the second half as the Chiefs beat the Jaguars. However, it was obvious that their vaunted offense looked very different with Mahomes playing hurt. While they were able to escape against Jacksonville, doing the same against Cincinnati could be difficult.
The good news for Kansas City is that Mahomes will be playing and he practiced with the team last Wednesday as a full participant. The question is whether he will be healthy enough to lead the offense and avoid the Cincinnati defense.
The Bengals are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games played against the Chiefs. Cincinnati is also 3-2 SU in their last 5 games played in Kansas City;
Cincinnati Bengals SU trends:
Kansas City Chiefs SU trends:
The Bengals are 3-0 SU and ATS versus the Chiefs with Joe Burrow as their starting quarterback. Yes, Mahomes has never beaten Burrow in the NFL. Cincinnati beat Kansas City 27-24 in Week 13. Interestingly, that was the same score when the Bengals beat the Chiefs in the 2022 AFC title game.
Entering last week, Kansas City was the odds-on favorite to win Super Bowl LVII while Patrick Mahomes was the betting favorite to win Super Bowl LVII MVP. However, Mahomes suffered a high ankle sprain during last week’s win over the New York Giants. Although he was able to return during the second half of that game, he was hobbling and obviously was not 100%.
Of course, Mahomes has declared that he will be good to go on Sunday. He’s as tough as they come and he will have a full week to rest his ankle and hope it gets better. Mahomes was a full participant in Kansa City’s last Wednesday so that’s a good sign for Kansas City bettors.
Cincinnati was dominant against the Buffalo Bills last week, so dominant that this game has become an even match-up in the eyes of the oddsmakers and bettors with Mahomes hurt. Kansas City opened as the -2.5 point spread favorites but the odds have flipped and the Bengals went as high as -2.5 themselves. The lines have moved again in Kansas City’s direction with Mahomes seen in practice.
Burrow will be the key to the Bengals’ performance. If he continues to deliver the goods, then the Bengals are in good shape on Sunday. If the Bengals get past the Chiefs, it’s not hard to imagine them winning the Super Bowl. After all, they were one-quarter away from winning it all last season.
With Mahomes compromised, the Chiefs must limit his usage by attacking the ground. Isaiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon combined for 120 yards on 23 carries last week. They need to replicate that effort against the Bengals. Keeping Mahomes in the game will make or break the Chiefs, which is why his teammates must step up.
There’s a chance that Mahomes will be better on Sunday than he was last weekend. But considering that he won’t be 100%, the Chiefs’ offense won’t be 100% either. The Bengals are hungry to return to the Super Bowl and they are the healthier team heading to Sunday’s game.
Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played against the Chiefs. The home team is also 4-1 ATS in the last five games played between the Bengals and Chiefs.
Cincinnati Bengals ATS trends:
Kansas City Chiefs ATS trends:
Bengals
+1.5 (-110)
Chiefs
-1.5 (-110)
Odds from BetOnline as of 01/27/2023
Mahomes not 100% on Sunday is already an advantage for the Bengals. Then Cincinnati also has the better defense between these two teams. The Bengals shut down the Bills to only 10 points and they are conceding just 13.5 points per game in the current postseason and ranked 6th in scoring defense during the regular season at 20.6 points per game conceded.
The Chiefs are a team that leans on their offense to win them games. They were the no. 1 scoring team in the NFL during the regular season but were just 16th in scoring defense.
I think that Mahomes’ injury is the key here. KC is back as the favorite after Mahomes practiced last Wednesday. But although I think he is playing here, he won’t be 100%.
Prediction: Bengals +1.5
The total has gone under in 9 out of the last 12 games played between these two teams. The under s 5-1 in their last six meetings played in Kansas City.
Cincinnati Bengals over/under trends:
Kansas City Chiefs over/under trends:
Over
48 (-110)
Under
48 (-110)
Odds from BetOnline as of 01/27/2023
These teams have combined to score an average of 43.2 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings. They combined for 51 points last December 4th but that was with a healthy Patrick Mahomes.
The Chiefs scored 27 points against the Jaguars last week. But they only scored 10 points with an injured Mahomes as compared to 17 with him at full strength. Mahomes says his first practice this week felt good. But playing in an actual game, much more a playoff game is different. I don’t think the Chiefs’ offense will be as prolific as they were during the regular season.
Prediction: Under 48
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