Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers 9/30/19 NFL Pick

Monday Night Football features two 0-3 teams looking for their first win of the season. The Cincinnati Bengals travel to Heinz Field to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers on September 30, 2019.

0-3 Start

The Cincinnati Bengals have opened the season at 0-3 but two of their losses have been by four points or fewer. Cincinnati lost 20-21 to the Seattle Seahawks in week one and in their last outing, they dropped a 21-17 contest to the Buffalo Bills. In that Buffalo game, Cincinnati led 17-14 with less than two minutes to go despite having fewer first downs, passing yards and rushing yards. Frank Gore’s one-yard plunge gave Buffalo the lead and the win and kept the Bengals winless on the season. Andy Dalton passed for 249 yards with two touchdowns and one interception while Joe Mixon rushed for 61 yards and Auden Tate caught six passes for 88 receiving yards. The Cincinnati receiving corps is missing AJ Green while Mixon is still not yet 100%.

Steelers Are Winless Too

While the Bengals’ 0-3 start isn’t unexpected, the Pittsburgh Steelers are winless too right now at 0-3 and that is a surprise. Ben Roethlisberger went down with a season-ending injury in week 2 and Mason Rudolph’s first start in week 3 didn’t go well. Rudolph went 14-27 and threw for 174 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. But the Steelers made only one red-zone trip all day long against the 49ers and they failed to score. The Steelers forced five San Francisco turnovers but converted them to only six points. James Conner rushed for 43 yards while JuJu Smith Schuster caught a total of 88 yards. The Pittsburgh defense ranks 28th against the rush this season and they have allowed the second-most passing yards per game. With Rudolph’s struggles, it will be interesting to see if Mike Tomlin will prefer to run with James Conner instead of rolling with Rudolph.

Who Wins?

Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in their last five games played. The Bengals are 0-5 SU in their last five games against opponents from the AFC North division. Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in their last five games played and the Steelers are 14-1-1 SU in their last 16 games against the AFC North division. Head to head, the Steelers are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games played against the Bengals. Pittsburgh is also 5-1 SU in their last six home games against Cincinnati and are the NFL betting favorites here.

The Steelers look like they are a mess early in the season. But the Bengals are worse than advertised. Sure, two of their losses were in close games which they lost by four or fewer points but this is a team which hasn’t scored more 20 points this season and that’s not going to work in this league.

Mike Tomlin is always ready for these AFC North divisional matchups and I think the Steelers have made week-to-week progress despite the outcomes. Cincinnati is on the road against a team they have struggled to beat. I’ll take the home team in this matchup between struggling teams. Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers

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Other Bets To Make

The Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games played. Cincinnati is 6-0 ATS in their last six games played on the road. The Steelers are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games played. Pittsburgh is 2-6 ATS in their last eight games played in September but 4-1 ATS in their last five Monday games played. Head to head, the Steelers are 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 games against the Bengals.

The Steelers have outscored the Bengals by 5.9 points per game in their last 10 meetings and 4.33 points per game in their last three games. I think Pittsburgh will try to win this game with their running game although that hasn’t worked for them so far. Cincinnati is allowing 168.7 yards on the ground this season and I think Pittsburgh is going to take advantage. It will be close but I think the home team covers the spread. Prediction: Steelers -3.5

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The total has gone over in six out of the last eight September games played by the Bengals. The total has gone under under in five out of the last seven games played by the Steelers. The over is 12-4 in Pittsburgh’s last 16 home games played and the under is 7-1 in the Steelers’ last 8 opponents from the AFC Conference. Head to head, the under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams.

These teams have combined to score 40.5 points per game in their last 10 meetings and 40.33 points per game in their last three encounters. Mason Rudolph looked bad in his first start and the Steelers need to get some offense to win this game. They are likely going to James Conner to ease the pressure off Rudolph. That would mean keeping the clock running and the Bengals out of the end zone, thus resulting in a minimal scoring game. Prediction: Under 43.5

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