Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Indians 6/11/19 MLB Odds, Pick, and Prediction

The Cincinnati Reds travel to Progressive Park to take on the Cleveland Indians in the opener of an interleague matchup on Tuesday.

Luis Castillo will start on top of the mound for the Reds in Game 1. The 26-year-old right-hander has started in a total of 13 games this season and has amassed a record of 6-1 with an ERA of 2.38, a WHIP of 1.10 and a BAA of .180. The Reds are 3-2 in Castillo’s last five starts.

The Bani, Dominican Republic native has allowed a total of 20 earned runs on 47 hits with six home runs while walking a total of 36 hitters and striking out 90 batters in 75.2 innings of pitch work this season. In his last start, Castillo allowed just one earned run on two hits in 6.0 innings as he got the win during the Reds’ 4-1 win over the St. Louis Cardinals last June 4th.

Jose Iglesias leads the Reds with his .291 batting average. Eugenio Suarez has 41 RBIs on the season to top Cincinnati while Derek Dietrich has 17 dingers to lead the team this year. The Cincinnati Reds are batting at .233 on the season and have scored just a total of 273 runs.

For the Indians, it will be Trevor Bauer who gets the call to start for the Indians at home. The 28-year-old right-hander from North Hollywood in California has started in a total of 14 games this season. Bauer has a record of 4-6 with an ERA of 3.93, a WHIP of 1.16 and a BAA of .198 this season. The Indians are 1-6 in his last seven starts.

In a total of 91.2 innings of pitch work, Bauer has allowed a total of 40 earned runs on 66 hits with 13 home runs. The former UCLA product has also struck out a total of 103 batters and walked 40 hitters. In his last outing, Bauer gave up five hits including three home runs in 8.0 innings pitched. He got the loss as the Indians dropped a 4-5 contest to the Twins last June 6th.

Francisco Lindor leads Cleveland with a batting average of .298. Meanwhile, Carlos Santana leads the Indians in RBIs and home runs with a total of 40 and 12, respectively. Cleveland is batting at a .227 clip this season and they have scored a total of 271 runs this year.

Who Wins?

Cincinnati is 4-6 SU in their last 10 games played. The Reds are 2-3 SU in their last five games played at home. Cleveland is 5-5 SU in their last 10 games played. The Indians are 4-2 SU in their last six games played at home. Head to head, the Reds are 4-6 SU in their last 10 games against the Indians. Cleveland is also 16-4 SU in their last 20 games at home against the Reds.

The Reds are 1-10 SU in their last 11 games against the American League, 4-1 SU in their last five games after an off day and 11-5 SU in their last 16 games when their opponent scored five or more runs in their last game played. The Indians are 2-4 SU in their last six games against an opponent from the National League, 1-6 SU in their last seven games against an opponent with a losing record and 3-9 SU in their last dozen games against a right-handed starter. When it comes to baseball betting, the Reds are 2-4 SU in their last six games as underdogs while the Indians are also just 2-4 SU as favorites.

The Indians have had their way against the Reds, especially at home. But the difference in this game is going to be the starting pitcher. Luis Castillo is having a fine season and is coming off a quality start. Meanwhile, Travis Bauer has been struggling as of late. I don’t think that the Reds are going to light up the scoreboard here. I think they will score just a couple of runs in this game and that’s going to be all that Castillo needs to pitch his way to victory in this game. I’m picking the Cincinnati Reds to beat the Cleveland Indians on 6/11/19,

Other Bets To Make

The Reds are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games played. Cincinnati is 2-3 ATS in their last five games played on the road. The Indians are 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games played. Cleveland is 4-2 ATS in their last six games played at home.

Historically, Cleveland has dominated this matchup, outscoring Cincinnati by an average of 2.5 runs per game in their last 10 games played and 5 runs per game in their last three games played. 17 out of these teams’ combined last 20 games have been decided by two or more runs and Castillo’s last five wins have come by at least two runs per game. I’m taking the underdogs and the plus runs here. Prediction: Reds +1.5

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The total has gone under in eight out of the last 10 games played by Cincinnati. The Reds have seen the total go under in each of their last five games played on the road. The total has gone over in four out of the Indians’ last five games played. The total has gone over in four out of the last six home games played by Cleveland. Head to head, the over is 6-4 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams. These teams have also seen the total go over in six out of their last 10 games played in Cleveland.

The Reds and Indians haven’t been good at the plate this season and Cincinnati’s batting order has been struggling as of late. These teams are averaging a combined 8.47 runs per game this season and Cincinnati is averaging just 2.4 runs per game in their last seven games played. Catillo is coming off a great start and expects him to have another one here. Bauer is going to pitch better but not enough to overcome Castillo here. The under is the good play in this matchup. Prediction: Under 8.5

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