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The Cleveland Cavaliers travel to Boston on Friday to face the Celtics in a rematch of last season’s Eastern Conference Finals, for whatever that’s worth.
Depleted Cavs
Last season, these two teams went the full seven game route to decide who would represent the Eastern Conference in the 2018 NBA Finals and the Cavs won that distinction behind the stellar postseason play of LeBron James. James is gone now, strutting his stuff in the City of Angels. Cleveland’s other All-Star, forward Kevin Love has played just 4 games this season after undergoing toe surgery. The result is a start where they look like they are tanking, well as far as former guard J.R. Smith thinks.
Cleveland is the worst scoring team in the league at 103.5 points per game scored and are second to the last in assists at 19.6 assists per game. Defensively, they aren’t as bad though as they rank 14th in the NBA in scoring defense at 110.4 points per game allowed and 22nd in rebounds at 43.8 rebounds per game.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Boston Celtics 11/30/18
Moneyline Odds: Cavaliers +750, Celtics -1050
Odds from gtbets.eu as of 11/30/18
Up And Down Season
The Boston Celtics were touted to take over the Eastern Conference with LeBron James going West but so far, it has been and up and down season for the men in green. The Celtics have gotten back last season’s injured All-Stars in Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward but while Irving has looked good, Hayward is still groping to return to form. With the two back this year, most of the role players who stepped up last season are back to their old roles.
The Celtics rank only 23rd in the league in team scoring at 107.1 points per game and they also rank 10th in assists at 24.4 helpers per night. On defense though, Boston is stout. The C’s rank 4th in the NBA in scoring defense, allowing just 104.3 points per game. They are 11th in the league in rebounding at 46.0 rebounds per game.
Who Wins?
These teams have played each other a total of 205 times during the regular season and the Celtics lead the series 125-80. However, Cleveland has won six out of the last eight meetings between these teams.
We’re seeing the Boston Celtics struggle to regain the form that took them to the Eastern Conference Finals last season. The Celtics are just 11-10 on the season and have split their last 8 games played. But the Celtics are playing a team that’s struggling more than they are this season.
The Cavs lost LeBron James to the Lakers then Kevin Love to a toe injury and so it’s not really surprising why they are 4-16 on the season. The Cavaliers have lost five out of their last seven games and enter this game with a 1-9 SU road record this season. Boston meanwhile is 5-3 SU at home so far this season and are 10-6 SU as betting favorites. The Cavs on the other hand are 3-14 SU as betting underdogs this season.
Any way you look at this game, you’re thinking of a mismatch and so am I. But remember this Cleveland team had back to back wins over the Sixers and Rockets earlier this month so you can’t really say no outright especially with Boston missing starters Al Horford and Jaylen Brown for this contest.
Remember though that Boston probably has the deepest lineup in the league today and that Cleveland doesn’t have an imposing frontline that could take advantage of those injuries. The Celtics need to rack up more wins and I think they got this in the bag.
We’re picking the Boston Celtics to beat the Cleveland Cavaliers on 11/30/18.
Other Bets To Make
The Cavs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the Atlantic Division. Cleveland is 35-17 in their last 52 games played on a Friday and are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played on one day rest. The Celtics are 20-7 ATS in their last 20 home games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games while playing on 3 or more days of rest and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Head to head, Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Boston but the Celtics are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 home games against the Cavaliers.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Boston Celtics 11/30/18
Spread Odds: Cavaliers +12.5 (-109), Celtics -12.5 (-109
Odds from gtbets.eu as of 11/30/18
Sure, Cleveland has been playing awful this season with LeBron gone and Kevin Love injured but ATS, they are 10-10 on the season and 6-4 on the road. The Celtics are just 1-5 ATS in 6 games where they were favored by eight points or more. They are shooting just 43.6% from the field at home and are outscoring teams by just 2.6 points per game in their last 5 games played. I don’t trust the Celtics with this double digit spread.
Prediction: Cavaliers +12.5
The total has gone under in 10 out of the last 13 games played by the Cavaliers and the under is 6-2 in Cleveland’s last eight road games. The total has gone over in four out of the last five games played by the Celtics. Head to head, the under is 5-2 in the last five games between the Cavs and Celtics and the total has gone under in five out of the last six games between these teams at the TD Garden.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Boston Celtics 11/30/18
Over/Under Odds: Over 209 -109, Under 209 -109
Odds from gtbets.eu as of 11/30/18
Cleveland is the worst scoring team in the league. The Celtics aren’t a good scoring team this season as well. Boston is the 4th best defensive team in the league. But 209 seems too low right now. Even with their defensive prowess, the Celtics’ last five games have topped that total. Cleveland’s last two games were low-scoring, they didn’t reach the 200 total in both games. However, in the six previous games, the total score in the Cavs’ games topped 209. I like the over here.
Prediction: Over 209
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