LA Clippers vs Dallas Mavericks 06/04/2021 NBA Playoffs Preview

The LA Clippers play to stay alive in their best-of-seven first-round playoff series against the Dallas Mavericks.

Los Angeles withstood a 42-point game by Luka Doncic and had every chance to win Game 5 only to see the Mavs hit the big shots down the stretch. Dallas went on to win the Game 105-100 and take a 3-2 series lead with Game 6 scheduled to be played at the American Airlines Center.

LA Clippers

After a disappointing second-round exit last season, the Clippers are in real danger of getting eliminated in the first round this year. Los Angeles appeared to have changed the momentum of the series after winning Games 3 and 4. However, they struggled down the stretch in Game 5 and the steadier Mavs team won.

Paul George scored 23 points and Kawhi Leonard added 20 but the Clippers’ stars combined to shoot just 14-34 from the field, including 4-14 from deep. George and Leonard also combined for 9 turnovers. The Clippers only got 11 points from their bench, including 6 from Ivica Zubac.

The Clippers made only 41.3% of their field goal attempts but were a decent 36.8% from three-point distance. Los Angeles outrebounded Dallas 47-45 and had more assists at 25-21. Los Angeles committed just 12 turnovers in the game but most of them were during the fourth period when the game was one the line.

Dallas Mavericks

The Dallas Mavericks bounced back after losing Games 3 and 4 at home. Luka Doncic didn’t show any signs of the neck strain that bothered him in the previous games as he scored 42 points on 37 shots to put the Mavs one game away from eliminating the Clippers and avenging last season’s playoff defeat.

Tim Hardaway Jr. also had a big night for Dallas with 20 points, 8 rebounds, and a career-high 14 assists. No other Dallas player scored in double digits. Kristaps Porzingis was held to 8 points but he hit a big three-pointer down the stretch that helped the Mavs pull away for good.

Dallas also shot poorly from the field at just 41.6% but they made three more baskets than the Clippers and matched them with 14 three-point makes. Dallas led by as much as 16 points only to see the Clippers rally and threaten them in the end game. Fortunately, Hardaway and Poringis had timely hits that helped Dallas preserve the victory.

Who Wins?

Los Angeles is 2-5 SU in their last seven games played. The Clippers are 4-2 SU in their last six games played on the road, 3-8 SU in their last 11 games against the Western Conference, and 2-5 SU in their last seven games played against the Southwest Division.

The Mavs are 12-5 SU in their last 17 games played. Dallas is 8-3 SU in their last 11 games played at home. Head to head, the Mavericks are 4-2 SU in their last six games played against the Clippers.

Kawhi Leonard and Paul George need to be assertive. The two took three fewer shots combined than Luka Doncic. Leonard and George also combined for 9 turnovers in the game Meanwhile, Doncic had another monster game for the Mavs and the Clippers have no answer for the Dallas superstar.

No question, the LA Clippers are the more talented team. But the Mavericks have won every time Luka Doncic plays. For as long as Luka plays and is 100%, you have to go with Dallas. They are a very different team when Luka is on the floor. The Clippers have not been able to contain Luka Doncic in the series. Unless something drastic happens, Doncic will continue to create havoc. The home team has yet to win a game in this series. We could finally see one on Friday night.

Prediction: Dallas Mavericks

Other Bets to Make

The Clippers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games played. Los Angeles is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played after an ATS loss, 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as betting favorites, 2-5-1 ATS in their last seven home games as betting favorites, and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as playoff favorites.

Dallas is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games played. The Mavs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as betting underdogs, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against an opponent with a winning record, and 5-0 ATS in their last five home games against an opponent with a wining road percentage of over .600.

Head to head, the Mavs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games played against the Clippers. However, Los Angeles has covered in eight out of the last 10 meetings in Dallas.

The games in this series have been won by at least 5 points so this spread might not be significant. The Clippers find themselves on the brink of elimination and although they finished Game 5 on a stronger note than Dallas, the pressure of staving off elimination may be too much. Sure the Clippers have Kawhi Leonard and Paul George but they struggled mightily in an important Game 5. I expect Leonard and George to have a better game, but it might not be enough to stop Luka Doncic’s impressive series. I’ll take the free basket.

Prediction: Mavericks +2.5

The total has gone under in 12 out of the last 17 games played by the Clippers. The under is also 8-4 in the Clippers’ last 12 road games, 5-1-1 in their last seven games when playing on one day rest, 9-2-2 in their last 13 games playoff games as betting favorites, 10-3 in their last 13 games after a straight-up loss, and 6-2 in their last eight road games against an opponent with a winning road record.

The total has gone over in seven out of the last 10 games played by Dallas. The over is 5-0 in their last five games after an ATS win, 6-0 in their last six games after a straight-up victory, 4-1 in their last five games when playing on one day rest, 9-3 in their last 12 games as playoff underdogs, and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games against an opponent with a winning road record.

Head to head, the total has gone under in seven out of the last nine meetings between these two teams. The under is also 4-1 in the last five games played in Dallas.

After giving up 111.3 points per game during the regular season, the Mavericks have conceded 106 or fewer points in three out of the first five games of this playoff series. Dallas scored only 81 points in the game Luka missed and they have averaged 115 points per game in the games he’s played. The total has hit under 216.5 in the previous two games of the series but if the Clippers are to have a chance to win this game, they must be firing from all cylinders. Look for a big scoring game by the Clippers who want to stay alive. However, look for Doncic and the Mavs to match their effort.

Prediction: Over 216.5

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