Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers 01/16/2023 NFL Wildcard Odds

The final Wild Card matchup has the Dallas Cowboys heading to the Raymond James Stadium to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday night.

This one’s a very interesting matchup because the Cowboys are 12-5 SU and will be visiting the 8-9 SU Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The reason behind that is that the Bucs played in a weak NFC South and which they won despite being one game below the .500 mark. Meanwhile, the Cowboys finished behind the Philadelphia Eagles who finished with a 14-3 SU mark in the NFC East.

These two teams played each other in Week 1 and the Buccaneers defeated the Cowboys 19-3.

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys rank 11th in the NFL in total offense at 354.9 yards per game and are 4th in scoring at 27.5 points per game this season. Dallas however, finished the year scoring an average of 26.8 points per game over their last five regular season game.

On defense, Dallas allowed 330.2 yards per game this season, including 129.3 on the ground. The Cowboys rank 3rd in the NFL in sacks with 54 and were second in turnover differential at +10.

Dallas’ running game struggled in the latter part of the season. In week 15, Tony Pollard led the team with 75 rushing yards and he led the team again last week but with only 19 yards in the loss to Washington. The Cowboys have rushed for fewer than 100 yards in their last two games played.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs had a mediocre 8-9 SU season but still won their division. The Bucs had the 8th lowest scoring average in the league at just 18.4 points per game scored and the 8th worst offense at only 346.7 yards per game. The Bucs were a league-worst 4-12-1 ATS on the year and were 1-4 ATS in their final five regular season games.

Tampa Bay’s defense allowed 21.1 points per game this season and conceded 324.3 yards of offense per contest and was a mere -2 in turnover margin.

Tom Brady is a perfect 7-0 against the Cowboys in the postseason Despite his struggles this season, the 45-year-old Brady finished third in passing yards with 4,694 yards and finished the campaign with 29 TDs and 9 INTs, his fewest picks in three seasons. Brady did not throw an INT in the final two regular season games of the Buccaneers.

Cowboys vs Buccaneers SU Trends

The Cowboys are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played against the Buccaneers. However, Tampa Bay has won two out of their last three home games played against Dallas.

Dallas Cowboys SU trends:

• The Cowboys are 12-4 SU in their last 16 games played.
• The Cowboys are 4-4 SU in their last 8 games played on the road.
• The Cowboys are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played against the NFC South Division.
• The Cowboys are 1-5 SU in their last 6 January games.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers SU trends:

• The Buccaneers are 5-5 SU in their last 10 games played.
• The Buccaneers are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played at home.
• The Buccaneers are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games played in January.
• The Buccaneers are 8-4 SU in their last 12 games played against the NFC.

The Cowboys lost Dak Prescott for 5 games in September and October but they overcame adversity and finished the regular season with a 12-5 SU record, their second consecutive 12-win season. Without Prescott early on, they leaned on a strong defensive unit but as the season progressed, they could not keep the momentum going.

Dallas opened the season with a 5-2 SU record and had the league’s top-scoring defense at only 13.6 points per game allowed. However, the Cowboys allowed an average of 24 points per game the rest of the way and had mixed results. Dallas also finished the regular season with a 2-4 SU mark in their last six road games.

Dak Prescott has struggled since coming back from injury. Although he has thrown 23 TDs in 12 games since returning from injury, he has also tossed 11 INTs in his last seven games played including three pick-sixes in his last four games played. Prescott is also winless in four previous playoff games played and he has thrown only 3 TDs and 2 INTs in his last three playoff appearances.

The Bucs had high hopes when Tom Brady canceled his retirement and returned to play for the 2022 season. However, the Bucs had an up-and-down campaign marred by injuries to key offensive players. Tampa Bay did not win more than two games in a row this season and finished with a mediocre 8-9 SU record which was still good enough to give them the division title and home-field edge in the wild-card round.

Tampa Bay, however, has become healthier right now and they have played steadily during the latter part of the season. Brady threw 15 TDs over his last 8 games after a slow start including three to Mike Evans in a re-energizing New Year’s Day win over the Carolina Panthers which clinched the division titles. Still, at 4-12-1 AT on the year, the Bucs enter the playoffs with the worst ATS record for any playoff team ever.

Brady has thrown seven picks in his last 6 games played and the Bucs needed to rally to win three games during their 4-1 SU closing run at home. During that stretch, the Bucs’ margin of victory has only been 3.8 points per game. Despite the terrible ATS record, the Bucs got the job done and are hosting the 12-5 SU Cowboys.

History is against Dallas here. Not only do they have a poor road record in the postseason, but Tom Brady also has not lost to the Cowboys in the playoffs. But if Prescott limits his turnovers and the Cowboys’ defense shows up, they definitely can win this game.

Beating Brady however is easier said than done. While the Bucs had a disappointing regular season, they are here and they have done enough to get to the postseason. Now they are healthier and that makes them dangerous. Tampa Bay’s rushing attack has been dismal this season, but like Brady, Leonard Fournette shows up in the playoffs. Playoff Lenny has scored 10 TDs over his last 7 playoff games played.

I think the pressure is too much on Dallas and Dak Prescott. Meanwhile, Brady and company are used to playoff games and this is just another regular day at the office for them. I like Tampa Bay’s postseason experience to be the difference here.

Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Cowboys vs Buccaneers ATS Trends

The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played against Buccaneers. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six games played between these two teams. The road team is, however, 4-0 ATS in the last four head-to-head meetings between these two teams.

Dallas Cowboys ATS trends:

• The Cowboys are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• The Cowboys are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games
• The Cowboys are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight-up loss.
• The Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss.
• The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Cowboys are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight-up loss of more than 14 points.
• The Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Monday games.
• The Cowboys are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
• The Cowboys are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games played against the NFC.
• The Cowboys are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Wildcard games.
• The Cowboys are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games in January.
• The Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games
• The Cowboys are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
• The Cowboys are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games against a team with a losing record.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers ATS trends:

• The Buccaneers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• The Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.
• The Buccaneers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.
• The Buccaneers are 5-19-2 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Buccaneers are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
• The Buccaneers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The Buccaneers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.
• The Buccaneers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played against the
• The Buccaneers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record
• The Buccaneers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Wildcard games
• The Buccaneers are 2-13-1 ATS in their last 16 games on grass
• The Buccaneers are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game
• The Buccaneers are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss.
• The Buccaneers are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight-up loss.

The last time that the Dallas Cowboys won on the road in the playoffs was in 1993 when they defeated the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC title game. That was three decades ago so the Cowboys are going up against history here.

Dallas is also playing at the Raymond James Stadium where the Bucs have played well this year despite their poor overall regular season. The Buccaneers have the kind of defense that can shut down opponents when they are on. We saw that during the first meeting between these two teams when Dallas scored a field goal in their opening drive and went scoreless the rest of the way.

Tom Brady is a perfect 7-0 against the Dallas Cowboys in his career. It’s hard to see the Bucs’ season ending at home.

Prediction: Buccaneers +2.5

Cowboys vs Buccaneers Over/Under Odds

The total has gone under in six out of the last 7 games played between these two teams.

Dallas Cowboys over/under trends:

• The over is 5-2 in the Cowboys’ last 7 games overall.
• The under is 9-4-1 in the Cowboys’ last 14 road games.
• The over is 3-1-1 in the Cowboys’ last 5 Monday games.
• The over is 5-2 in the Cowboys’ last 7 games played versus a team with a losing record
• The under is 4-0 in the Cowboys’ last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The under is 8-2 in the Cowboys’ last 10 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The under is 4-1 in the Cowboys’ last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
• The under is 4-1 in the Cowboys’ last 5 games in January.
• The under is 7-2 in the Cowboys’ last 9 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• The under is 5-2 in the Cowboys’ last 7 road games against a team with a losing home record.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers over/under trends

• The over is 4-1 in Buccaneers’ last 5 games overall
• The over is 6-1 in Buccaneers’ last 7 games in January.
• The over is 4-1 in Buccaneers’ last 5 games on grass.
• The over is 4-1 in Buccaneers’ last 5 games versus a team with a winning record.
• The under is 6-1 in Buccaneers’ last 7 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• The under is 14-3 in Buccaneers’ last 17 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The under is 4-1 in Buccaneers’ last 5 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• The under is 12-3 in Buccaneers’ last 15 games following a straight-up loss
• The under is 4-1 in Buccaneers’ last 5 playoff home games.
• The under is 15-5 in Buccaneers’ last 20 games played against the

The under went 4-3-1 in Dallas’ 8 road games played this season. The Bucs meanwhile went under in 11 of their 17 games played this season. These teams combined for 22 points in Week 1 and the Bucs have held the Cowboys to single-digit scoring in two out of their last 5 games played.

These teams have combined to score an average of 38.8 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings and only 43.0 points per game in their last three games played against each other. This one should be no different.

Prediction: Under 45.5

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