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The best in the Southwest faces the best in the Atlantic when the Dallas Mavericks travel to the TD Garden on November 11, 2019, to take on the Boston Celtics.
Tied For Top Spot In The Southwest
The Dallas Mavericks bounced back from a loss to the New York Knicks by dominating the Memphis Grizzlies on Saturday night in Dallas. With the win, the Mavs moved to 6-3 SU in the season and are now tied with the Houston Rockets for the top spot in the NBA’s Southwest Division.
Luka Doncic barely missed another triple-double with 24 points, 14 rebounds, and 8 assists to pace Dallas. Doncic has posted a triple-double in three out of his last four games played heading to Saturday night. He is averaging a spectacular 27.7 points, 10.8 rebounds and 9.1 assists per game this season. However, the Mavs may play without Kristaps Porzingis in this game. Porzingis is listed as day to day after missing Saturday’s game with a knee injury.
The Mavericks are 6th in the NBA in scoring at 116.3 points per game this season. They rank 4th in rebounding at 48.0 boards hauled per contest. Dallas is 12th in the league in passing at 24.2 assists per game and they are allowing an average of 111.9 points per game this season.
Hottest Team in The League
The Boston Celtics have won seven straight games and along with their 80’s rival Los Angeles Lakers, they are the hottest team in the league right now. Boston lost to Philadelphia on opening night but they have not looked back and have zoomed to the top of the Eastern Conference with their 7-1 SU record.
In his second game back from injury, forward Jaylen Brown put up 30 points for the Celtics who lost Gordon Hayward to a hand fracture in their 20-point win over the San Antonio Spurs on Saturday night. Hayward is expected to miss at least one month due to the injury but if Jaylen Brown can step up as he did against the Spurs, the Celtics should be just fine with Kemba Walker and Jayson Tatum also having a terrific start to their seasons.
Boston ranks 11th in the NBA in scoring at 113.1 points per game. The Celtics are 10th off the boards with an average of 46.5 rebounds per game and they are 16th in passing at 23.8 dimes per contest. The Men in Green have the 5th best scoring defense in the league at 103.8 points per game allowed this year.
Who Wins?
Dallas is 8-4 SU in their last 12 games played. The Mavericks are 4-0 SU in four road games played so far this season. Boston is 7-0 SU in their last seven games played and 3-0 SU in their last three games played at home. The Celtics are also 6-0 SU in their last six November games played. Head to head, The Celtics are 5-1 SU in their last six games played against the Mavericks and are 4-2 SU as NBA betting favorites.
The Mavericks are off to a good start in the Doncic-Porzingis era. Doncic is showing no signs of the sophomore jinx and is having a spectacular start to his second NBA season. Kristaps Porzingis was also off to a good start after missing over a season due to injury but he took the last game off to rest his injured knee and is still listed as day-to-day.
The Celtics seem to play better with Kemba Walker instead of Kyrie Irving. Jayson Tatum and Gordon Hayward are also having fantastic starts to their season. However, Hayward fractured his hand in his last outing and will be out for at least one month. But if Jaylen Brown can play as he did against San Antonio, the Celtics will be just fine.
The Mavs have yet to lose on the road this season while the Celtics have also been perfect at home. The Mavs may be without Porzingis while the Celtics will be without Hayward. Props to Hayward for a strong start to the season but his production was a bonus for the C’s. Hayward missed the entire of 2018 and was a non-factor last season and Boston was still a strong team. Kemba Walker, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart are an impressive core. Whether Porzingis plays or not, the Celtics have the edge in talent level here, especially at home, where they play terrific defense. Boston has won seven straight games and you know that’s going to end soon. I just don’t think it’s against Dallas at the TD Garden.
Prediction: Boston Celtics -160
Other Bets To Make
Dallas is 4-5 ATS in nine games played this season. The Mavericks are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games played on the road. Boston is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games played. The Celtics are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games played on the road. Head to head, the Celtics are 4-2 ATS in their last six games played against the Mavericks. Boston is just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games against Dallas.
The Celtics have outscored the Mavericks by 1.5 points per game in their last 10 meetings and by 6.33 points per game in their last three encounters. Boston will be playing without Gordon Hayward in this game but I expect Jaylen Brown to rise to the occasion the way he did in their last game against the Spurs. Porzingis may play in this game but you know he isn’t 100%. I like the Celtics to continue rolling here.
Prediction: Celtics -3.5
The total has gone over in seven out of their last eight games played. The Mavericks have seen the total go over in each of their four road games played this season. The Total has gone under in five out of Dallas’ last seven games against the Atlantic Division. The total has gone under in seven out of the last 10 games played by the Celtics. The under is 2-1 in Boston’s three home games played this season but the over is 4-2 in their last six games against the Western Conference and the over is also 10-5 in their last 15 games against the Southwest Division.
These teams have combined 209.5 points per game in their last 10 meetings and 203.67 points per game in their last three head to head games. Dallas is the 6th best scoring team in the league right now but the Celtics have the 5th best scoring defense in the league. Boston has not allowed more than 106 points at home so far this season and I expect them to put the cuffs on Dallas and slow this game down to their pace.
Prediction: Under 218.5
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