Dallas Mavericks vs Los Angeles Clippers NBA Odds, Preview, and Prediction

The Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Clippers open their seven-game first-round series on Monday night at the AdventHealth Arena in Orlando.

The Mavericks finished the season in 7th place while the Clippers are the 2nd seed in the West. Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis led Dallas to their first playoff appearance since the 2015-16 season and the Mavericks are looking to win their first playoff series since winning the NBA title in 2011.

The Clippers 2nd place finish was their best ever and the team is looking to win the title behind Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. The Clippers have dealt with injury issues this season and will be without Patrick Beverley and Landry Shamet. But with Montrezl Harrell back, the Clippers are confident they can take down Dallas in the first round.

Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic had a breakout year for the Mavericks. After winning Rookie of the Year honors last season, Doncic had an even impressive sophomore year. The 21-year old sensation ranked 6th in the league in scoring at 28.6 points per game while also finishing third in passing at 8.8 assists per game. Doncic’s near triple-double season also included averages of 9.4 rebounds and 1.0 steal per game. This will be the first playoff game for both Doncic and Porzingis.

The Mavericks head to the playoffs after losing their last two seeding games, including a 128-102 blowout loss to the Phoenix Suns. They had a good start to their season but had a disappointing second half as they fell to 7th place in the West. But with Doncic and Latvian unicorn Kristaps Porzingis leading the way, Dallas is a very dangerous second seed.

Dallas ranked 3rd in the league in scoring at 117.0 points per game this season. They were 4th in rebounding at 46.9 rebounds per game and 14th in passing at 24.7 assists per contest. The Mavericks are ranked 16th in the league in scoring defense at 112.1 points per game allowed.

L.A. Clippers

The Clippers were the preseason favorites to win the NBA title after the team signed Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. But injuries and health issues prevented this team from playing at full strength for the entire season and they played only a total of 11 games with a 100% roster. With Montrezl Harrell expected to return on Monday, this is the closest the Clippers could be to full strength in the playoffs.

All eyes will be on Kawhi Leonard who is seen as the messiah for the ex-doormat team of the NBA. Leonard transferred to Toronto last season and helped the team win its first-ever NBA title. Now that he’s in Los Angeles, the expectations are high. Leonard had another impressive year at 27.1 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per game. He averaged 31 points per game in their season series with Dallas. Tim Hardaway Jr. averaged less than 10 points per game against the Clippers so he will have to step up.

The Clippers are the 4th highest-scoring team in the league at 116.3 points per game this season. They are 3rd in rebounding at 47.7 boards grabbed per contest and are 22nd in passing at 23.7 assists per outing. The Clippers are 13th in scoring defense at 109.9 points per game allowed.

Who Wins?

The Mavs are 4-6 SU in their last 10 games played. Dallas is 2-3 SU in their last five games played on the road and 2-5 SU in their last seven games played against the Pacific Division. The Clippers are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played. Los Angeles is 4-1 in their last five games away from Staples Center. Head to head, the Clippers are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played against the Mavericks. L.A. has won four out of their last five meetings against Dallas.

The Clippers swept the Mavs in their season series 3-0. L.A. won decisively, beating Dallas by 15 points in two of those meetings. Doncic and Porzingis looked good together this season but this will be the first playoff game for both European superstars so I expect some early jitters from both. There is also a chance that Porzingis won’t be 100% on Monday as he is still listed as probable with a heel injury.

On the other hand, this is as close as the Clippers have been to full strength. They are primed for a playoff run and this is what Leonard and George were signed for. I expect the Clippers to open the playoffs with a statement game. I’m going with the favorites here.

Prediction: L.A. Clippers

Other Bets to Make

Dallas is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played. The Mavs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games played on the road and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games played against the Western Conference. Los Angeles is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games played. The Clippers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games played on the road, 7-1 ATS in their last eight games played against the Western Conference, and 4-1 ATS in their last five games played in August. Head to head, the Clippers are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games played against the Mavs, including 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings.

Dallas didn’t really look impressive during the seeding games, winning only three of their assignments in Orlando. This is also the first playoff game for the tandem of Doncic and Porzingis and I expect some adjustment early on. On the other hand, Kawhi Leonard has looked great for the Clippers and with Montrezl Harrell expected to play for the Clippers, L.A. should be in great shape here.

Prediction: Clippers -6

The total has gone over in four out of the last five games played by the Mavericks. The under is 6-1 in their last seven games played on the road. The total has gone over in five out of the last six games played by the Clippers. The over is 4-1 in the last five games played by Los Angeles. Head to head, the under is 5-4-1 in their last 10 games played by these teams.

We’ve seen too many games in the bubble hit the over and I expect this one to be the same. The Clippers scored 120 or more points in five of six games in Orlando while the Mavericks have conceded 126 points or more in five of eight games played at Disney World. Dallas has seen the total go over 230 in all of their eight seeding games while the Clippers have hit that total in six of eight games. I like these teams to hit the over.

Prediction: Over 230

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