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The Denver Nuggets look to close out their series as they travel to the Moda Center to take on the Portland Trail Blazers on Thursday night.
No Answer
The Nuggets have struggled to put away the stubborn Blazers in this series. You can always look back to Game 3 where these teams needed four overtime period to settle the issue. But in Game 5, Denver had its most dominating win of the series as the Blazers had no answer for Denver’s frontcourt pairing of Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap.
Millsap scored 24 points while Jokic scored 25 points and hauled down 19 board in the 26-point win. Jamal Murray wasn’t to be outdone in Game 5 as the Nuggets starting point guard had 18 points, 9 assists and zero turnovers in another impressive display from the former Kentucky Wildcat. The Nuggets outscored the Blazers 66-44 in the paint and outrebounded them 62-44.
Nuggets
+155
Trail Blazers
-175
Odds from betonline.ag as of 5/09/19
Need Their Best Game
After giving the Nuggets serious trouble early in the series, the Portland Trail Blazers now need to play their best game to stave off elimination in Game 6. The Blazers are playing without starting center Jusuf Nurkic who is injured while backup center Enes Kanter is playing through an injured shoulder. Without Nurk and with Kanter compromised, Denver’s frontcourt has taken over the series.
The Blazers need to go where they’ve always gone to. Their dynamic backcourt is one of the best in the league. Damian Lillard scored 22 points while McCollum struggled with 12 points on 5-16 shooting in Game 5. Both must come up big for Portland in Game 6 to neutralize Denver’s advantage inside the paint.
Who Wins?
Denver is 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played. The Nuggets are 2-3 SU in their last five games played on the road. The Blazers are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played. Portland is 4-1 SU in their last five games played at home. Head to head, the Nuggets are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games against the Blazers.
The Nuggets frontcourt pair of Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap overwhelmed Portland’s depleted interior defense. Credit Enes Kanter for playing through a shoulder injury but in this series, he cannot do it alone. Kanter was enough against a limited big man in Steven Adams in Round One but against a multi-faceted big like Jokic, it would have helped if Portland had Nurkic too.
The Blazers still have a shot at this with their dynamic backcourt. Lillard and McCollum can go off anytime and the Blazers can put up tons of points. But Denver also has a steady backcourt led by Jamal Murray and Gary Harris. Both have not just played terrific offense but they have also played good defense on their Portland counterparts.
The Blazers don’t have an answer to Nikola Jokic. He has been the difference in this series for the Nuggets and he will be the difference again in Game 6. Expect the Blazers to come out firing but expect the Blazers to pound it with Jokic and Millsap. Murray will also be key for the Nuggets while Portland needs their bench to step up. I think the better and deeper team wins this. I’m picking the Denver Nuggets to beat the Portland Trail Blazers in Game 6 of their second round playoff series.
Other Bets To Make
The Nuggets are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games played. Denver is 3-2 ATS in their last five road games. The Blazers are also 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games played. Portland is 2-3 ATS in their last five home games played. Head to head, the Nuggets are 8-2 in their last 10 games against the Blazers.
Nuggets
+4 (-110)
Trail Blazers
-4 (-110)
Odds from betonline.ag as of 5/09/19
The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games in Portland. Denver is also 4-1 ATS in their last five games against Western Conference teams and 3-1 ATS in their last four games as road underdogs. Portland is just 1-5 ATS in their last six games played, 9-11 ATS in their last 20 games against the Western Conference and the Blazers are also 1-5 ATS in their last six games against Northwest Division teams. The Nuggets proved to be the steadier team in Game 5 and with Nikola Jokic doing it all, it’s going to be hard to stop this team even on the road. Except Game 5 which was a blowout in favor of Denver, the games in this series have been decided by an average score of 5.5. So given that Denver is surprisingly a four-point underdog here, I think this is a bargain. It’s going to be another close game so win or lose, it’s always great to carry the plus points with you. Prediction: Nuggets +4
The total has gone over in seven out of the last 10 games played by Denver. The over is 5-0 in the Nuggets’ last five games played on the road. The total has gone over in six out of the last 10 games played by the Blazers. Portland has seen the total go over in three out of their last five home games. Head to head, the over is 8-2 in the last 10 games between these two teams.
Nuggets
O 215.5 -110
Trail Blazers
U 215.5 -110
Odds from betonline.ag as of 5/09/19
Sound basket betting says this one should go over. Denver’s last seven road games have seen the total go over while five out of Portland’s last six games against Western Conference teams have also gone over the total. The over is 4-1 in the series with only Game 2 going under. The total has been at least 222 in those four games that went over. These teams are very gifted offensively and aren’t stout on defense in the postseason. I expect another high-scoring affair in Game 6 with the team whose offense is playing better wins the game again. Prediction: Over 215.5
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