Denver Nuggets vs San Antonio Spurs Game 6 Odds, Preview and Prediction 4/25/19

The Denver Nuggets try to close out the stubborn San Antonio Spurs in Game 5 of their first-round playoff series but the Western Conference 2nd seed must do it in San Antonio where they have historically struggled.

Getting Their Act Together

The Denver Nuggets entered this postseason as the most inexperienced team in the playoffs. That proved to be true when the Nuggets not only lost Game 1 of this series but fell behind 1-2 after three games. But Denver has gotten their act together ever since and have won the last two games by at least double digits. They now hope to put away the Spurs and move on to the next round.

Jamal Murray has scored at least 23 points in the last two games of this series. In Game 5, Murray also added 7 assists, 4 rebounds, 2 steals, and 1 block while shooting 9-16 from the floor. Gary Harris scored 13 of his 15 points in the first half of Game 5 and he played good defense on DeMar DeRozan.

White Held In Check

The Spurs have fizzled somewhat in the last two games of this series and that has been possible because breakout guard Derrick White has struggled in their last two games while being held in check by Denver’s defensive men. After scoring 36 points in Game 3 and averaging 23 points in the first 3 games of the series, White was shut down to just 8 points in Game 4 and then 12 points in Game 5.

DeMar DeRozan also struggled in Game 5 as he shot just 6-15 from the floor and finished with 17 points. LaMarcus Aldridge also scored 17 points for San Antonio in Game 5. Veteran forward Rudy Gay also struggled with just six points while starting guard Bryn Forbes only scored four points in Game 5. As a team, the Spurs shot just 41.1% from the floor in Game 5 while Denver made 50% of their shots.

Who Wins?

Denver is 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played. The Nuggets are 1-3 SU in their last four games played. San Antonio is 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played. The Spurs are 3-1 SU in their last four games played at home. Head to head, the Nuggets are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games against the Spurs.

The Nuggets have made a statement by winning the last two games of this series by 14 and 16 points. Jamal Murray has averaged 23.5 points per game in the last two games and has proved his worth after Derrick White scored a career-high 36 points on him in Game 3.

But while you want this series to end, you can never count out Gregg Popovich and the Spurs. Popovich never gets rattled and always prepares his team for battle. And these Spurs are too experienced to just go away, especially since they are playing at home where they are 14-1 SU in their last 15 games against the Nuggets.

I still think that Denver has the best chance to advance to the next round. But they won’t be putting the Spurs away in their building. There’s just too much pride in this great organization and too much experience not to step up. San Antonio stays alive and takes it to a deciding Game 7.

I’m picking the San Antonio Spurs to beat the Denver Nuggets on 4/25/19.

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Other Bets To Make

The Nuggets are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games played. Denver is 2-2 ATS in their last four games on the road. The Spurs are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games played. San Antonio is 1-3 ATS in their last four games played at home. Head to head, the Nuggets are 3-1 ATS in their last four games against the Spurs.

The Nuggets are 4-2 ATS in their last six games against the Southwest Division. Denver is 1-3 ATS in their last four playoff road games as underdogs. Likewise, the Nuggets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games as underdogs in San Antonio. The Spurs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home playoff games. San Antonio is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against the Northwest Division and the Spurs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games against the Nuggets in the playoffs. The Nuggets have momentum and have won the last two games of the series by an average margin of 16 points per game. But with the Spurs and Popovich, you throw out the stats and ride their playoff experience and coaching. San Antonio still has the numbers over Denver when the Spurs are playing at home.

Prediction: Spurs -2.5

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The total has gone over in six out of the last 10 games played by the Nuggets. The over is 4-0 in Denver’s last four games played on the road. The total has gone under in six out of the last 10 games played by the Spurs. The under is 6-3 in the last 9 games between the Spurs and Nuggets.

The under is 11-3 in the Spurs’ last 14 games against Western Conference opponents. The total has gone under in six out of San Antonio’s last nine games against the Northwest Division. The under is 7-3 in the last 10 playoff games between these two teams in San Antonio. The trend points to the under, but these teams have scored at least 208 points in each of the last four games. I think 208 is too low a total, even for two good defensive and slow-paced teams like these two.

Prediction: Over 208

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