Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills 12/17/2022 NFL Preview and Prediction

The Miami Dolphins play the short week and head to Buffalo to take on the Bills on Saturday night.

The Fins can move to within one game of the lead in the AFC East if they beat the Bills at Highmark Stadium. Miami is 8-5 SU on the season and has lost their last two games against San Francisco and the L.A. Chargers. Prior to that losing streak, the Dolphins had won five straight games.

Meanwhile, the Bills could take a 3-game lead over the Dolphins in the divisional race if they win on Saturday. Buffalo is 10-3 SU on the season and they are coming off a 20-12 win over the New York Jets last weekend. The Bills will carry a four-game winning streak to Saturday’s contest.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins rank 9th in the NFL in scoring at 24.9 points per game this season. Their rushing attack is just 29th at only 89.8 yards per game this year.

Tua Tagovailoa has passed for 3,004 yards with 22 TDs and only 5 INTs. Raheem Mostert leads the team with 610 rushing yards with 3 TDs scored. Tyreek Hill has 1,460 receiving yards and 6 TD passes but is questionable for Saturday’s game. Jaylen Waddle has 1,003 receiving yards and also 6 TD grabs.

On defense, Miami is 23rd at 24.0 points per game allowed this season. They are ranked 7th in rush defense at 108.3 rushing yards per game allowed but are 23rd in passing defense at 242.5 yards per game allowed.

The Fins only have 12 takeaways this season, 29th in the league. Jerome Baker leads the team with 83 tackles while Jaelan Phillips has 6 sacks to pace the team. Meanwhile, Jevon Holland has two INTs for Miami this year.

Buffalo Bills

Buffalo ranks 4th overall in scoring at 27.2 points per game this season. The Bills are also second at 397.1 yards per game allowed and they 8th in rushing at 133.6 yards per game this season. The Bills’ passing attack is 6th in the business at 263.4 yards per game.

Josh Allen has racked up 3,553 passing yards with 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He has also rushed for 628 yards with 6 rush TDs. Devin Singletary leads the team in rushing with 642 yards and has rushed for 4 TDs. Stefon Diggs is the team’s leading receiver with 1,239 yards and 10 TD grabs.

The Bills have the league’s second-best scoring defense at only 17.0 points per game allowed. Buffalo 9th in total defense at 319.3 yards of total offense allowed per game. They are also 4th with only 99.8 rushing yards per game allowed and 19th in pass defense at 219.5 yards per game.

Safety Damar Hamlin leads the team with 80 tackles while linebacker Tremaine Edmunds has 79. Von Miller has 8 sacks but is questionable to play. Jordan Poyer leads the Bills with 4 INTs.

Dolphins vs. Bills SU Prediction

The Dolphins are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games played against the Bills. Miami is also 0-4 SU in their last 4 games played in Buffalo.

Miami Dolphins SU trends:

• The Dolphins are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games played.

• The Dolphins are 3-4 SU in their last 7 games played on the road.

• The Dolphins are 11-4 SU in their last 15 games played against the AFC.

• The Dolphins are 2-4 SU in their last 6 December games.

Buffalo Bills SU trends:

• The Bills are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games played.

• The Bills are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games played at home.

• The Bills are 7-3 SU in their last 10 December games.

• The Bills are 5-1 SU in their last 6 Week 15 games played.

Just a couple of weeks ago, the Miami Dolphins were alone on top of the AFC East Division. But after losing their last two games to the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Chargers, the Dolphins are in danger of dropping out of a wild card spot. Now the Dolphins must snap out of the skid on a short week in Buffalo.

Tyreek Hill is uncertain to play in Buffalo after he left the game with an ankle injury. Hill scored Miami’s two touchdowns against the Chargers, including one where he recovered a fumble and ran 57 yards for the touchdown. Miami’s other threat, Jaylen Waddle has caught just three passes in their last two games while QB Tua Tagovailoa has completed less than half of his passes during that stretch.

The Bills beat the Jets last week 20-12 but they need to bounce back after being held to a season-low 232 yards and 14 first downs. Josh Allen threw for only 147 yards, marking the 4th straight game and the 6th time in his last seven games played where he’s thrown 253 yards or fewer. Meanwhile, Stefon Diggs caught only 3 passes for 37 yards.

Buffalo’s offense still ranks second in yards and points scored but it has scored 28 points or less in five out of its last seven games played. That offensive slump and a defense that has allowed the second-fewest points per game this season have led to the score hitting the under in 9 out of their last 11 games.

The Dolphins have won five out of their last 6 games against their division rivals, including a 21-19 win over Buffalo in their first meeting last September. The Dolphins should be in desperation mode here to try and end their streak. They have a shot as the Bills are sputtering right now. However, there’s also a chance that Hawaii-native Tagovailoa could struggle to play in the cold.

The Buffalo pass rush recorded four sacks and applied plenty of pressure against the Jets. And although the offense struggled last week, they did not turn the ball over. The Bills are 22-4 SU when Allen doesn’t commit a turnover.

I like the Bills to right the ship here. Miami will be a tough customer but the Bills are the real deal.

Prediction: Buffalo Bills

Dolphins vs. Bills ATS Prediction

The Dolphins are 2-7-1 ATS in the last 10 games played between these two teams. The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 games played between these two teams.

Miami Dolphins ATS trends:

• The Dolphins are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

• The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.

• The Dolphins are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games against the AFC East.

• The Dolphins are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

• The Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 15.

• The Dolphins are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games on turf

• The Dolphins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.

• The Dolphins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

• The Dolphins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight-up loss.

• The Dolphins are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a winning home record.

Buffalo Bills ATS trends:

• The Bills are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

• The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 15.

• The Bills are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS loss.

• The Bills are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in December.

• The Bills are 2-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

• The Bills are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

• The Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

• The Bills are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

• The Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up win.

If the Bills beat the Dolphins, they can build a three-game lead in the AFC East. Although the Bills are coming off a poor offensive effort against the Jets, the team is ranked 2nd in offensive yards and 9th in total defense.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins have failed to cover in their last 5 road games against a winning team and five out of their last six road games overall. Weather should also be a factor here with the Bills more acclimated to playing with lake-effect snow.

I’ll lay the touchdown and pick the Bills.

Prediction: Buffalo Bills -7

Dolphins vs. Bills Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone under in each of the last three games played between these two teams. The over is 6-1 in their last 7 meetings played in Buffalo.

Miami Dolphins over/under trends:

• The over is 4-0 in the Dolphins’ last 4 Saturday games.

• The over is 5-1 in the Dolphins’ last 6 games in Week 15.

• The over is 4-1 in the Dolphins’ last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

• The over is 4-1 in the Dolphins’ last 5 road games.

• The over is 6-2 in the Dolphins’ last 8 games on turf.

• The over is 6-2 in the Dolphins’ last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

• The over is 5-2 in the Dolphins’ last 7 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.

• The over is 5-2 in the Dolphins’ last 7 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

• The under is 5-2 in the Dolphins’ last 7 games following a straight-up loss.

• The under is 5-2 in the Dolphins’ last 7 versus the. AFC.

• The under is 9-4 in the Dolphins’ last 13 games against the. AFC East.

Buffalo Bills over/under trends:

• The under is 9-2 in the Bills’ last 11 games overall.

• The under is 6-0 in the Bills’ last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

• The under is 8-0 in the Bills’ last 8 games following a straight-up win.

• The under is 4-0 in the Bills’ last 4 games versus the AFC East.

• The under is 7-1 in the Bills’ last 8 games played against the AFC.

• The under is 6-1 in the Bills’ last 7 games against a team with a winning record.

• The over is 8-2 in the Bills’ last 10 Saturday games.

• The over is 8-3 in the Bills’ last 11 games in Week 15.

• The under is 5-2 in the Bills’ last 7 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

• The under is 7-3 in the Bills’ last 10 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.

With the weather forecasts predicting snow in Buffalo, expect both teams to be cautious with teams being more conservative on offense. Also, look for unexpected turnovers due to the weather.

The under is 9-2 in Buffalo’s last 11 games played while the under is also 5-2 in Miami’s last 7 games against the AFC and 9 of their last 13 against the AFC. Buffalo also owns the second-best scoring defense in the league this season at only 17.0 points per game allowed.

I am going with these teams to hit the under.

Prediction: Under 44

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