Miami Dolphins vs New Orleans Saints 12/27/2021 NFL Preview and Odds

The Miami Dolphins take their six-game winning streak to New Orleans where they face a Saints team that has won back-to-back games.

Miami won its opening game against the Patriots but went on to lose its next seven games. But since then, the Fins have found their stride and have won their last six games, including a 31-24 victory over the New York Jets the last time out. Miami is 7-7 on the season and is currently 10th in the AFC conference standings.

New Orleans lost five straight games before winning its last two. Their most recent victory was an impressive 9-0 shutout of Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, marking the first time Brady has been shutout at home in his legendary career. The Saints are also 7-7 SU on the season and they are 8th in the latest NFC conference leaderboard.

The Saints have won four out of the six head-to-head meetings between these two teams, including a 20-0 win in their last meeting. However, that game happened way back in October 2017.

Miami Dolphins

Tua Tagovailoa threw two touchdowns with two interceptions while completing 16 of 27 passes for 196 passing yards in last week’s win over the Jets. Duke Johnson led the Miami rushing attack with 107 yards on 22 carries with two touchdowns while DeVante Parker led the team with 68 receiving yards with one touchdown grab.

The Dolphins are the no. 15 passing team in the NFL at 228.1 yards per game this season. They are, however, only 28th on the ground with an average of 86.6 rushing yards per game. Miami is 21st overall in scoring at just 20.4 points per game. They also have the NFL’s 18th best scoring defense at 22.3 points per game allowed this season.

What are the Moneyline Odds?

Dolphins

-165

Saints

+145

Odds from BetOnline as of 12/27/2021

New Orleans Saints

Taysom Hill had another modest game with only 154 passing yards on 13 of 27 passes in the Saints’ win over the Buccaneers. Hill also ended up becoming the team’s leading rusher with 33 rushing yards against Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, Marquez Callaway led the Saints with a total of six catches for 112 receiving yards.

New Orleans ranks 30th in the league in passing at only 194.6 passing yards per game. They are 15th on the ground with an average of 117.1 rushing yards per contest. The Saints are the 17th best scoring team in the league with an average of 22.4 points per game. They have the NFL’s 5th best scoring defense at only 20.4 opponents points per game allowed.

Who Wins?

Miami is 6-0 SU in their last six games played. The Dolphins are 1-4 SU in their last five games played on the road. New Orleans is 2-5 SU in their last seven games played. The Saints are 2-4 SU in six home games played this season.

The Dolphins failed to cover the 10-point spread last week against the Jets but the team showed a lot of resiliency coming back from multiple 10-point deficits to pull off the victory. Without his top receiver last week, Tua Tagovailoa struggled early on and had to rely on the defense to make stops. But with Jaylen Waddle expected to return on Monday from the COVID-19 list, Miami should be in good shape here.

The Saints held Tom Brady and the Bucs scoreless in their last outing. That’s the first home shutout in Brady’s legendary career. On Monday though, they face a different challenge in the very mobile Tagovailoa who can hurt them in many ways. Taysom Hill will have to play better and not depend on the defense to deliver another shutout to win this game.

Both teams are playing well as of late but the Dolphins should have the better offense with Waddle back. Give me Miami to continue its winning ways on the road against the Saints.

Prediction: Miami Dolphins

Other Bets to Make

The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last six games played. Miami is 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing 150 or fewer rushing yards in their previous game, 5-1 ATS in their last six games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game, 4-1 ATS in their last five games after a straight-up win, 4-1 ATS in their last five games played on field turf, 13-4 ATS in their last 17 after allowing 250 or fewer yards in their previous game, and 6-2 ATS in their last eight December games.

The Saints are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games played. New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in their last five games played at home, 2-5 ATS in their last seven games played on field turf, 1-5 ATS in their last six Monday Night Football games, 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after an ATS win, 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games against the AFC East division, and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as home underdogs by at least a field goal.

What are the Spread Odds?

Dolphins

-3 (-110)

Saints

+3 (-110)

Odds from BetOnline as of 12/27/2021

New Orleans has won its last two but is just 2-5 SU in their last seven games played. The Saints’ offense has struggled during that stretch, scoring fewer than 20 points in three out of their last four games played. They have been able to move the ball well on the ground but with Miami having one of the league’s best rush defenses at 103.7 rushing yards per game allowed ( no. 7 in the NFL ).

The Dolphins’ pass defense isn’t as impressive as it ranks 10th from the bottom. However, Miami has allowed 140 or fewer passing yards in each of its last three games played. With the Saints’ passing game struggling without Winston, they are going to find it difficult to throw as difficult it will be to run against the Dolphins. Give me Miami to cover this modest spread.

Prediction: Dolphins -3

The total has gone under in five out of the last seven games played by Miami. The under is 4-1 in the Dolphins’ last five games after picking up 350 or more total yards in their previous game, 4-1 in their last five games as betting favorites, 5-2 in their last seven games after a straight-up win, 5-2 in their last seven games as road favorites, and 36-16 in their last 52 games on field turf.

The total has gone under in four out of the last five games played by the Saints. The under is 5-1 in their last six games after accumulating fewer than 250 yards of offense in their previous game, 9-2 in their last 11 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game, 12-4 in their last 16 games after a straight-up win, 10-4 in their last 14 games after an ATS win, and 7-3 in their last 10 games on field turf.

The Dolphins are scoring just 20.4 points per game this season, including 19.5 points per game on the road. Miami has scored an average of 17 points per game in their last three games against New Orleans.

The Saints meanwhile have limited their last three opponents to an average of 12 points per game while the Dolphins have conceded an average of 14.3 points per game in its last three assignments.

At 37, the total is very low for this contest but three of New Orleans’slast four games have seen a total of 39 or lower and Miami has scored 20 or fewer points in half of their last 10 games played. Both these teams are in the bottom half of the league in scoring and the Saints have a Top 5 scoring defense.

No question, it’s the defense that is going to win this game. And it will be low-scoring.

Prediction: Under 37

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