Duke Blue Devils vs Virginia Cavaliers 02/23/2022 NCAAB Odds and Preview

The Virginia Cavaliers host the Duke Blue Devils in a crucial ACC matchup on Wednesday night at the John Paul Jones Arena.

Virginia is on the outside looking in at the NCAA Tournament picture. However, at 17-10 in the conference, a home win over Duke will go a long way in getting them back in the tournament conversation. With two winnable games against Florida State and Louisville after Wednesday, this is a must-win for the Cavaliers.

Meanwhile, Duke is 23-4 overall and 13-3 in the ACC, tops in the conference. According to early tournament forecasts, Duke is a no. 2 seed right now. However, if they run the table and win the ACC, the Blue Devils could earn themselves a no. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament and increase their chances of reaching the Final Four in Coach K’s final season.

Duke Blue Devils

Duke shot 52% from the floor and beat Florida State 88-70 in their last game on Saturday night at the Cameron Indoor Stadium to avenge a 1-point loss to the Seminoles. Paolo Banchero delivered for the Blue Devils with 17 points, including 13 in the second half while also grabbing 8 rebounds. Wendell Moore Jr. also stuffed the stats sheet with 16 points, 7 assists, 5 rebounds, and six steals for Duke while Joey Baker made four of five three-pointers off the bench.

The Blue Devils are the 16th best scoring team in the nation at 80.1 points per game and they are outscoring their opponents by nearly 15 points per contest. Duke is also 44th in rebounding at 39.3 boards grabbed per contest and is 12th in passing at 17.4 assists per game. The Blue Devils have the 10th most efficient offense in the nation with just 10 turnovers committed per outing.

Virginia Cavaliers

Virginia appeared to have kissed its NCAA tournament hopes goodbye when they trailed by 10 points in the second half against Miami on Saturday night. However, the Cavaliers fought back and managed to eke out a 74-71 win and keep their tournament aspirations alive. Jayden Gardner scored a game-high 23 points to lead Virginia while Kadin Shedrick added 13 off the bench. The Cavaliers’ defense held Miami to 40% FG shooting and 35% from behind the 3PT arc.

The Cavaliers are just 387th in the nation in scoring at 63.4 points per game this season but have scored over 70 twice and 69 once in three out of their last five wins. Virginia is averaging only 31.3 rebounds per game while also issuing 14.1 assists per contest. Their defense is standout as they concede only 60.1 points per game this season and only a total of 187 three-pointers all-year long.

Who Wins?

Duke is 9-1 SU in their last 10 games played. The Blue Devils are 5-0 SU in their last five road games. Virginia is 5-1 SU in their last six games. The Cavaliers are 10-4 SU in 14 home games played this season, and 5-1 SU in their last six games against the Atlantic Coast Conference.

Virginia should be confident heading to this matchup because they beat Duke last February 7th behind a strong defensive effort which limited Duke’s high-scoring offense. However, when you look back at that game, the Cavaliers needed Duke to fail in a lot of areas to win the game.

First, Duke committed 15 turnovers which are five higher than their season average. Also, they shot poorly in the first half of that game. On the other hand, Virginia shot 48% in that game which is higher than their season average.

Give props to the Cavaliers for winning that game. But there were just too many things that went their way and too many other things that didn’t go Duke’s way. You can’t expect it to happen all over again, especially in back-to-back games. Duke has played much better since that loss and they are too good a team not to make adjustments. I’m picking the Blue Devils to exact revenge here.

Prediction: Duke Blue Devils

Other Bets to Make

The Blue Devils are 15-9-3 ATS in 27 games played this season. Duke is 5-3 ATS in eight road games played this year, 4-0 ATS in their last four Wednesday games, 4-1 ATS in their last five road games against an opponent with a home winning percentage better than .600, 4-1 ATS in their last five road games against an opponent with a winning home record, and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against an opponent with a winning straight up record.

The Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games played. Virginia is 5-1 ATS in their last six games played at home, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games against an opponent with a winning road record, and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with a road winning percentage better than .600. However, Virginia is 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 games after an ATS win and 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a straight-up victory.

Head to head, the road team is 22-7-1 ATS in the last 30 meetings between these two teams.

In their first meeting last February 7th, the Cavaliers limited the Blue Devils’ offense to 68 points while allowing them to shoot just 42% from the field. Virginia also forced Duke to 15 turnovers while committing just 5. Despite that impressive defensive effort, the Cavaliers barely beat the Blue Devils.

Look for Virginia to give it everything it’s got with their NCAA hopes on the line. The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games played and I think they will be able to apply the same defensive effort and keep this a close game. However, I expect Duke’s big-time players to show up and make the difference in this game. Duke is also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games played.

Prediction: Duke Blue Devils -4.5

The total has gone over in five out of the last six games played by Duke. The over is 4-1 in their last five games after a straight-up win, 4-1 in their last five games against an opponent with a winning percentage better than .600, 4-1 in their last five games against an opponent with a winning straight up record, 4-2 in their last six games against the Atlantic Coast Conference, and 8-2 in their last 10 February games.

The total has gone over in five out of the last seven games played by Virginia. The over is 7-2 in their last nine February games played, 4-0 in their last four games against an opponent with a winning percentage above .600, 4-1 in their last five games after an ATS win, 4-1 in their last five games against an opponent with a winning SU record, 4-2 in their last six Wednesday home games, and 5-2 in their last seven home games.

These teams have combined to score an average of 131.4 points per game in their last 10 meetings including 137 points the last time out.

Duke ranks 16th in the nation in scoring at 80.1 points per game and they allow 65.3 PPG as well. Their tempo which ranks 142nd in college basketball will make up for Virginia’s slow 342nd ranked tempo. They have scored at least 72 in 7 out of their last 10 games played and at least 76 in three out of their last four.

Virginia used defense to beat Duke the last time out but even on one of their best defensive showing of the season, the Cavaliers saw the total hit 137 because Duke is such an explosive scoring team. I think that Virginia will be able to slow down Duke but not enough to get the total to exceed 130 points. This won’t be a high-scoring game but Duke will score enough points to carry Virginia to the OVER.

Prediction: Over 130

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