New York Giants vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11/22/2021 NFL Preview and Prediction

The New York Giants head to the Raymond James Stadium to test the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Week 11 installment of Monday Night Football.

New York has won two out of its last three games and has looked better as a team since starting the season with a 1-5 mark. The Giants are at the bottom of the NFC East with a 3-6 record. New York is coming off a 23-16 win over the Las Vegas Raiders last November 7th and had their bye last week so they are well-rested.

Tampa Bay has lost two straight games and is on top of the NFC South division with a 6-3 record. The Bucs lost to the Washington Football Team 29-19 last week after taking a bye the previous week. Prior to that, they also dropped a 36-27 contest against the New Orleans Saints.

The Giants lead their all-time series 16-8 and have won seven out of their last 10 head-to-head meetings. However, the Bucs won 25-23 on the road last November 2, 2020, in their most recent head-to-head encounter.

New York Giants

The New York Giants defeated the Las Vegas Raiders before taking their bye week. The Giants rallied from a 10-13 halftime deficit and shut out the Raiders in the final quarter to win the game 23-16 and improve to 3-6 on the season. The Giants were outgained 403-247 in total offense but they forced three turnovers which they converted to 10 points, including a pick-six.

Daniel Jones has completed 190 of 293 passes for 2,059 passing yards with 8 TDs and 5 interceptions. Devontae Booker has rushed for a total of 315 yards on 85 carries with two scores while Sterling Shephard has 32 catches for 324 receiving yards plus one touchdown. Kadarius Toney has 28 catches and 352 receiving yards while Kenny Golladay has 19 catches and 310 receiving yards.

The Giants rank 14th in passing offense at 238.9 yards per game and 25th in rushing at 95.9 rushing yards per contest. New York is also just 24th in scoring at 19.9 points per game while allowing opponents to score 24.0 points per contest.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

After a 6-1 start, the Buccaneers have dropped back-to-back games to the Saints and Washington Football Team with their bye week in between. Tampa Bay still has a one-game lead over New Orleans in their divisional standings but the Bucs need to right the ship now if they are to repeat as Super Bowl champions. Tampa Bay fell behind 13-0 early against Washington and couldn’t get back in the game.

Tom Brady has thrown for a total of 2,870 passing yards on 254-377 passing with 7 touchdowns against seven interceptions. Leonard Fournette leads Tampa’s ground attack with 486 yards on 112 carries with four touchdowns. Ronald Jones has 194 rushing yards on 44 carries with one score. Meanwhile, Chris Godwin has 57 catches for 717 yards and four scores and Mike Evans has caught 41 passes for 606 yards with 9 TD grabs. The injured Rob Gronkowski has 16 catches for 184 yards with four scores.

Tampa Bay ranks 1st in the league in passing offense at 315.6 yards per game. They are only 27th in rushing offense at 90.9 yards per game. The Bucs are the 3rd highest-scoring team in the NFL at 31.0 points per game and they are 14th in scoring defense at 23.6 points per game.

Who Wins?

The Giants are 4-9 SU in their last 13 games played. New York is 2-4 SU in their last six games against the AFC, and 1-3 ATS in four road games played this season. The Buccaneers are 14-3 SU in their last 17 games played. Tampa Bay is 7-0 SU in their last seven games played at home.

New York has struggled to win on the road this season as they are just 1-3 SU and ATS in four games away from home. The Giants also have a hard time defending the pass and with Logan Ryan testing positive for COVID-19. Meanwhile, the Bucs have the best passing offense in the business and should have an easy time moving and scoring the ball against the New York pass defense.

The Giants have also struggled to score points too. They are averaging less than 20 points per game. Without Saquon Barkey, the offense has been predictable as Jones has been forced to carry much of the offensive load. With Tampa Bay having one of the best pass rush defenses in the league, I think that the Bucs defense will shut down the Giants.

Give me the Bucs to bounce back with a big win on Monday night. I’ll eat the chalk here.

Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Other Bets to Make

The Giants are 4-2 ATS in their last six games played. New York is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games played on the road, 6-1 ATS in their last seven November games, 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as road underdogs, 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs, 5-2 ATS in their last seven Monday night games, 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games against the NFC, and 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games played on grass.

The Buccaneers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games played. Tampa Bay is 3-7-2 ATS in their last 12 Monday games, 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as betting favorites, 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 November games, and 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the AFC. Tom Brady is also 0-11 ATS in his last 11 8 PM EST games played.

Head to head, the Giants are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games played against the Buccaneers. New York is also 5-0 ATS in their last five games played in Tampa Bay.

The Giants covered their last three games heading to their bye week. New York went 2-1 SU during that stretch with their only loss being a 20-17 defeat against the Kansas City Chiefs as 10.5 point spread underdogs.

The Bucs were expected to come out firing after their bye week considering they lost to the Saints the week before. Instead, Tom Brady threw two first-quarter picks against Washington and the Bucs never recovered. Now, Brady will try to avoid losing three straight games for the first time since 2002.

The Bucs are just 3-6 ATS this season but the three times they covered were all home games like this one. All three games that they’ve covered were also against teams with losing records like the Giants and in all three instances, they coveted a double-digit spread. I like the Bucs to end their slump here. I’m not sure how they win by 12 points without Gronk and AB.

Prediction: Giants + 11

The total has gone under in 12 out of the last 16 games played by the Giants. The under is 3-0-1 in the Giants’ last four games as betting underdogs, 5-0 in their last five November games, 8-1 in their last nine games after an ATS wins, 6-1 in their last seven games after a straight-up win, 6-1 in their last seven Week 11 games, and 7-3-1 in their last 11 games against the NFC.

The total has gone under in four out of the last six games played by Tampa Bay. The under is 4-0 in their last four games after a straight-up loss, 9-3 in their last dozen games after an ATS loss, and 6-2 in their last eight games after accumulating fewer than 90 rushing yards per game in their previous game.

The Giants have gone under in each of their last three games played with the total not hitting 40 in any of those games. One game earlier, they hit the push while combining for 49 points against the L.A. Rams. New York is averaging only 19.9 points per game this season, including 23.3 points per game on the road.

The Bucs meanwhile are scoring 31 points per game this season but that total goes to 40.5 points per game when playing at home. However, the Tampa Bay defense is allowing only 18.5 points per game at the Raymond James Stadium this season.

With Brady still without Gronk and AB, I don’ think the offense is the same. The Bucs still got more than enough weapons to win this game but they don’t have the guns to make it a high-scoring affair. Give me the teams to fall short here. I’m thinking of a 45-point total for this game.

Prediction: Under 50

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