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The Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets meet again at the Toyota Center for the crucial Game 4 of their second round playoff series on Monday night.
Steph’s Struggles
Warriors’ two-time MVP Stephen Curry has struggled in the Houston series as he’s shot just 7-23 from the floor in Game 3, his worst shooting game of this postseason. In three games played against the Rockets, Curry has shot just 36.5% from the floor and 25.1% from behind the three point arc. Curry also blew two layups in overtime.
Good thing for the Dubs is that they have another former MVP in their fold in Kevin Durant who is averaging 36.67 points per game in the series. Durant had 46 in Game 3 but it went for naught as the Dubs were outlasted in the overtime period. KD passed Dwyane Wade for 10th place in the playoff all-time scoring list but he will need his teammates to shoot better if they are to shoot down the Rockets in Game 4.
Warriors
+100
Rockets
-120
Odds from Betonline.ag as of 5/06/19
Harden Seals The Win
James Harden struggled with his vision in Game 2 but the reigning NBA MVP unloaded 41 points in their must-win Game 3 and put the Rockets on board with a 126-121 overtime win over the defending champions Golden State Warriors. Harden sealed the win with a big three pointer with 49 seconds left that gave Houston a 124-118 lead. Durant made three free throws on the ensuing play but Harden scored a layup on the other end to put the game away.
Clint Capela finally showed up for the Rockets with 13 points and 11 rebounds while Eric Gordon played the best playoff game of his career with 30 points for Houston. Chris Paul had an excellent overall effort as well with 14 points, 8 rebounds and 7 assists while P.J. Tucker added 7 points, 12 rebounds and 3 assists. After trailing 57-39 in the first quarter of Games 1 and 2, the Rockets did a good job in Game 3 as they trailed by just a solitary point.
Who Wins?
Golden State is 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played. The Warriors are 3-2 SU in their last five games played on the road. Houston is also 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played. The Rockets are 5-0 SU in their last five games played at home. Head to head, the Warriors are 3-1 SU in their last four games against the Bucks.
The Dubs are 10-4 SU in their last 14 games against the Western Conference and 1-4 ATS in their last five games against opponents from the Southwest Division. The Rockets meanwhile are 12-4 SU in their last 16 games against the Western Conference but are 4-6 SU in their last 10 games as home favorites.
Despite losing Game 3, I like how the Warriors kept themselves in the game and gave themselves a chance to win it in the endgame. It was just that Steph Curry was really struggling badly and they didn’t go to Kevin Durant in a couple of plays down the stretch. Any given day, the Warriors could have pulled off that win, even with Steph’s struggles. I think they get the big road win here. I’m picking the Golden State Warriors to beat the Houston Rockets in Game 4 of their Western Conference semifinals series.
Other Bets To Make
The Warriors are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games played. Golden State is 2-3 ATS in their last five games played on the road. The Rockets are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games played. Houston is 4-1 ATS in their last five games played. Head to head, the Rockets are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 meetings against the Warriors.
Warriors
+1.5 (-110)
Rockets
-1.5 (-110)
Odds from Betonline.ag as of 5/06/19
The Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the Southwest Division. Golden State is 4-1 ATS in their last five games after a loss, 16-6-1 in their last 23 Monday games, 2-5 ATS in their last seven Conference semifinals games and just 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two teams. The Rockets are 12-4 ATS against the Eastern Conference, 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against the Pacific Division, 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games played at home and 0-4 ATS in their last four games when playing on one-day rest. Houston played a lot better in Game 3 with Capela playing his usual game and the three ball falling for the Rockets. Still, they had a hard time putting away the Dubs who still had Stephen Curry struggling with his shooting. Had Golden State gone to KD in a couple of plays in the end, things could have ended differently. Anyways, what I’m saying is that the Dubs still had the chance to win in the end game. This game won’t be any different. It’s going to be just as competitive. But I think the Dubs pull this one out. Prediction: Warriors -1.5
The total has gone over in seven out of the last 10 games played by the Warriors. Golden State has seen the over go 4-1 in their last five road games played. The total has gone under in six out of the last 10 games played by the Rockets. The over is 10-4-1 in the Rockets’ last 15 home games against the Eastern Conference.
Warriors
O 221 -110
Rockets
U 221 -110
Odds from Betonline.ag as of 5/06/19
The under is 9-3 in the last dozen meetings between these two teams. The total has gone under in four out of the last five games between the Warriors and Rockets when playing in Houston. The under is 4-1 in Houston’s last five games played in May. The over is 2-1 in this series so far and Golden State has hit over in five out of eight playoff games played. On the other hand, the Rockets have hit over in their last two games played after going under since the start of the playoffs. Houston won Game 3 but the Dubs’ fast pace is dictating the series. These teams have hit at least 224 points in the last two games. Prediction: Over 221
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