Atlanta Hawks vs Milwaukee Bucks Game 1 Eastern Conference Finals Odds and Prediction

The Atlanta Hawks travel to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks in Game 1 of the 2021 Eastern Conference Finals at the Fiserv Forum on Wednesday night.

Atlanta eliminated the top seed in the East in seven games while Milwaukee ousted the odds on favorite to win the 2021 NBA title in the Brooklyn Nets, also in seven games. Milwaukee won two out of three regular season meetings, including the lone game at the Fiserv Forum.

Atlanta Hawks

The Atlanta Hawks have defied the odds up to this point. Seeded 5th in the East, the Hawks eliminated the Knicks 4-1 and then sent home the no. 1 ranked Philadelphia 76ers in seven games. The Hawks won three of four games in Philadelphia making them a dangerous road opponent here.

Trae Young has led the way for the Hawks by scoring an average of 29.1 points per game in his first playoff appearance. But the main question for the Hawks is the health of Bogdan Bogdanovic who was questionable in Game 7 and played just 7 second half minutes in that game. Bogdanovic watched the 4th quarter of Game 7 with an ice pack on his knee.

Milwaukee Bucks

The Milwaukee Bucks also defied the odds when they ousted the Brooklyn Nets in seven games as well. Brooklyn was the betting favorite to win the title this year but the Bucks caught a break when James Harden was injured in Game 1 and Kyrie Irving late in the series. With the Nets unable to play all three superstars together during the series.

Giannis Antetokounpmo averaged 31.9 points and 12.9 rebounds in the Brooklyn series, scoring 40 points and grabbing 13 rebounds in the closeout Game 7. Giannis however is shooting just 53.8% in the postseason but despite that, the Bucks have a closer in Khris Middleton who is scoring 23.3 PPG while shooting 87.3% from the foul line. Milwaukee will be without Donte DiVincenzo but he has not played in the postseason so his absence won’t be a factor.

Who Wins?

Atlanta is 15-5 SU in their last 20 games played. The Hawks are 11-4 SU in their last 15 games against the Eastern Conference, and 4-1 SU in their last five games played on the road. Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in their last five games played. The Bucks are 13-0 in their last 13 games played at home.

Head to head, the Bucks are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games played against the Hawks. Milwaukee is also 7-0 SU in their last seven home games against Atlanta.

Both teams are coming off tough Game 7 wins but the Bucks had more rest than the Hawks are playing at home where they are 31-10. Atlanta won three games in Philadelphia which was impressive but overall, they are just 21-22 in 43 road games played this season.

Give props to the Atlanta Hawks for making it this far. However, Milwaukee plays much better as a team than the Knicks or Sixers whom the Hawks eliminated. The Bucks were the number 1 scoring team in the league during the regular season and they scored an average of 124.5 points per game in two wins against Atlanta.

Antetokounmpo only has a 21.2 point career scoring average against the Hawks. But this is his biggest chance to win a championship with the Nets already gone. He showed he can step up in a big game like Game 7 against the Nets and he can do the same against the Hawks.

I like Giannis to have a big night with the Hawks not having someone quick and strong enough to guard him.

Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks

Other Bets to Make

Atlanta is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games played. The Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games, 4-1 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after a straight up win, and 10-4 ATs in their last 14 games against an opponent with a winning straight up record.

Milwaukee is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games played. The Bucks are 3-1 ATS in their last four games played at home, 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after a straight up win, and 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Southeast Division. However, Milwaukee is 0-4 ATS in their last four Conference Finals games.

The Bucks are undefeated at home during the postseason and three out of their last four wins there have been by at least seven points. Again, the Hawks have been terrific on the road during the postseason, but the Bucks present a different challenge.

Milwaukee isn’t without its flaws but they are offensively better than the Sixers. Atlanta is a good defensive team but they don’t have a big who can stop Giannis from dominating with his athleticism.

Prediction: Bucks -7.5

The total has gone under in five out of the last six games played by the Hawks. The under is 4-0 in Atlanta’s last four road games, 4-0 in their last four playoff games as underdogs, 6-1 in their last seven road games against an opponent with a winning home record, and 9-2 in their last 11 games after a straight up win.

The under is 5-2 in Milwaukee’s last seven games played. The total has gone under in five out of their last seven games played against the Eastern Conference. The under is 3-0-1 in their last four playoff games, 6-1 in their last seven home games, 5-1 in their last six games as home favorites, and 4-0 after allowing more than 100 points in their previous game.

These teams went over 226 in each of their first two meetings this season. They combined for only 215 points in their last meeting but Trae Young didn’t play that game. These teams have combined to score an average of 235.8 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings, including 229.33 PPG in their last three games played.

But we are in the playoffs and as the trends say, these teams have seen the under more during their previous series. The Bucks ranked 19th in scoring defense during the regular season but they held the Nets to below 115 points in five of seven games.

Atlanta has not scored more than 111 points since Game 1 of the Sixers series where they put up 128. The Hawks have also conceded no more than 106 points in their last four games. This game should be played with good defense and the total here should go under 226.5

Prediction: Under 226.5

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