Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat 04/11/2023 NBA Play-in Tournament Odds and Pick

The No.8 Atlanta Hawks visit the No. 7 Miami Heat in the first play-in tournament game in the Eastern Conference.

The Hawks finished the season with a 41-41 SU record. The Hawks were 17-24 SU on the road this season and were 8-8 SU against their division opponents. Atlanta lost its last two games heading to this play-in tournament game.

The Heat were 44-38 SU on the season and finished 3 games ahead of the Hawks in the team standings. Miami went 27-14 SU in 41 home games played this season and the Heat were a perfect 8-0 SU at home against their division opponents.

The winner of this game earns the 7th seed while the loser will have to play the winner between No. 9 and No. 10 to qualify for the playoffs as the 8th seed.

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks were the second-highest-scoring team in the league during the regular season at 118.5 points per game. Atlanta However ranked only 25th in scoring defense as they conceded 118.1 points per game. The Hawks rank 7th in the league in points in the paint at 54.3 points per game led by Clint Capela’s 10.7 per contest.

Trae Young leads the Hawks and is putting up a double-double at 26.2 points and 10.2 assists per game. In their last 10 games played, Dejounte Murray is averaging 16.3 points and 5 assists per game.

Atlanta is 5-5 SU in its last 10 games played. The Hawks averaged 124.7 points, 46.5 rebounds, 27.9 assists, 7.8 steals, and 5.2 blocks per game while shooting 49.7% from the floor during that period. They have allowed their opponents to score 122.7 points per game during that stretch.

Miami Heat

The Heat posted a 10-6 SU overall record against Southwest Division teams and were a perfect 8-0 SU at home against their division rivals. Miami has played in numerous close games and they have a 14-8 SU record in games decided by 3 points or fewer.

Jimmy Butler is Miami’s main man at 22.9 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game. Shooting guard Tyler Herro has been scoring just 17.4 points per game in his last 10 games played for the Heat.

Miami is 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played. The Heat averaged 113.0 points, 38.3 rebounds, 26.9 assists, 6.7 steals, and 2.1 blocks per game. They have held their opponents to just 110.8 points per game scoring during that period.

Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat 4/11/23 SU Prediction

The Hawks are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games played against the Heat. Atlanta is also 0-6 SU in their last 6 road games played in Miami.

Atlanta Hawks SU trends:

• The Hawks are 3-2 SU in their last 5 games played.
• The Hawks are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games played on the road.
• The Hawks are 11-15 SU in their last 26 road games against the Eastern Conference.
• The Hawks are 8-8 SU in 16 games against the Southeast Division.
• The Hawks are 4-4 SU in their last 8 road games against the Southeast Division.

Miami Heat SU trends:

• The Heat are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played.
• The Heat are 27-14 SU in 41 home games played this season.
• The Heat are 6-1 SU in their last 7 April games.
• The Heat are 15-11 SU in 26 home games against the Eastern Conference.
• The Heat are 8-0 SU in 8 home games against the Southeast Division.

The Heat are one of the slowest teams in the postseason. They are slow and methodical unlike most of the remaining teams who play fast and love to get up and down the floor. At 96.8 possessions per game, only the Cleveland Cavaliers play at a slower pace.

Jimmy Butler had the best post-All-Star break period of his career as he averaged 26.1 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game in March. According to ESPN Butler, and Paul George are the only active 20-point scorers with a minimum of 100 playoff games played who increase their scoring, rebounding, and assists average during the postseason.

Meanwhile, the Hawks finished with a 41-41 record and incredibly, they managed to stay one game within the .500 mark for 33 consecutive games from January 25 to April 5. That stretch of mediocrity is the biggest proof of how Atlanta has been up and down this season. While they did not have long losing streaks, they also didn’t build any momentum with long winning streaks.

During the 2020-21 NBA playoffs, Trae Young was known as Broadway Trae as he took down the Knicks with three 30-point games in Madison Square Garden. He then helped the Hawks outs the Sixers in Round 2 before an injury slowed him down in the Conference Finals against the eventual champions Bucks. Last season, Young was a disappointment in the postseason as he put up just 15.4 points per game on 31.9% shooting.

Since Quin Snyder took over as head coach, the Hawks are averaging 123.3 points per game, second only behind the Bucks. During that period, Atlanta has also ranked 2nd in offensive rebounding percentage and first in second-chance points. With Miami ranked in the bottom 3 in rebounding, that gives the Hawks are chance here.

The Hawks are however in the bottom 6 in scoring defense and are allowing 118.1 points per game this season. Miami is a very slow team but in their last five games, they have shown that they are capable of lighting up the scoreboard. With the Heat’s offense playing well as of late, they should be able to outgun the Hawks.

Miami won their regular season series with Atlanta 3-1. The Heat have historically dominated this match-up at 8-2 in their last 10 head-to-head meetings. They have even been more dominant at home, winning each of their last 7 encounters in Miami.

Atlanta went 5-5 SU in their last 10 games played and the Heat went just 6-4 SU during that stretch. It’s hard to bet against Jimmy Butler right now as he is playing his best basketball of the season. Look for the Heat to ride Butler’s big game here. Prediction: Miami Heat

Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat 4/11/23 ATS Prediction

The Hawks are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games played against the Heat. Atlanta is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games played in Miami.

Atlanta Hawks ATS trends:

• The Hawks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
• The Hawks are 11-27 ATS in their last 38 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.
• The Hawks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Hawks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Hawks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Hawks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Hawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.
• The Hawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days of rest
• The Hawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The Hawks are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games played on Tuesday.

Miami Heat ATS trends:

• The Heat are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• The Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
• The Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 day of rest.
• The Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a losing road record.
• The Heat are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 games following a straight-up win.
• The Heat are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Heat are 7-17 ATS in their last 24 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Heat are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Heat are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Tuesday games.
• The Heat are 6-27-1 ATS in their last 34 games following an ATS win.
• The Heat are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight-up win of more than 10 points.
• The Heat are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against an opponent from the Southeast Division.
• The Heat are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played on a Tuesday.

The Heat have won 8 out of their last 10 games played against the Hawks and they have done so by outscoring Atlanta by an average of 7.4 points per game during that period. The Heat’s last four wins have been by a double-digit margin.

During their last two regular-season games against the Sixers and Celtics, the Hawks lost by 5 and 6 points, respectively. Considering both Philly and Boston already took their feet off the gas pedal in those games, Atlanta still lost by at least five points.

Don’t expect Miami to give the Hawks are break on Tuesday night. The Heat want to book that playoff spot right away and they don’t want to play in another play-in tournament game.

Jimmy Butler is red hot right now at 25.5 points per game on 64.2% FG shooting and 45.5% three-point shooting over his last 10 games played. Bam Adebayo is averaging 24.5 points per game on 61.7% FG shooting against the Hawks this season.

Give me the Heat to win this game and cover the betting spread. Prediction: Heat -4.5

Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat 4/11/23 Over/Under Prediction

The under is 8-2 in the last 10 games played between these two teams. The total has gone under in 36 out of the last 52 games played by these two teams in Miami.

Atlanta Hawks over/under trends:

• The over is 4-0-1 in the Hawks’ last 5 overall.
• The over is 4-0-1 in the Hawks’ last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 4-0-1 in the Hawks’ last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 4-0-1 in the Hawks’ last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 4-0-1 in the Hawks’ last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 3-0-1 in the Hawks’ last 4 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The over is 3-1-1 in the Hawks’ last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• The under is 8-2 in the Hawks’ last 10 vs. a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The under is 6-2-1 in the Hawks’ last 9 Tuesday games.
• The under is 3-1-1 in the Hawks’ last 5 road games.

Miami Heat over/under trends:

• The over is 5-0 in the Heat’s last 5 overall.
• The over is 7-0 in the Heat’s last 7 home games.
• The over is 5-0 in the Heat’s last 5 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 4-0 in the Heat’s last 4 games following an ATS win.
• The over is 5-0 in the Heat’s last 5 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 4-0 in the Heat’s last 4 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 4-0 in the Heat’s last 4 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 5-0 in the Heat’s last 5 games following a straight-up win.
• The over is 5-0 in the Heat’s last 5 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The over is 5-0 in the Heat’s last 5 home games versus a team with a losing road record.
• The over is 9-2 in the Heat’s last 11 games following a straight-up win of more than 10 points.
• The under is 20-6 in the Heat’s last 26 against a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The under is 9-3 in the Heat’s last 12 Tuesday games.

These teams have combined to score an average of 239.33 points per game in their last 3 head-to-head meetings, including 258 points during their most recent head-to-head meeting last March 6th also here in Miami.

Atlanta has seen the total go over 227 points in each of their last 10 games played. During that span, the Hawks have allowed at least 120 points seven times while also scoring 120+ points seven times during that span.

Meanwhile, Miami has gone over 227 points just five times in their last 10 games played but thrice in their last five games played. The Heat have scored at least 118 points four times in their last 5 games.

The Hawks were the second-highest-scoring team during the regular season at 118.5 points per game. Miami ranked 2nd in scoring defense at 109.8 points per game allowed but with their offense heating up as of late, Miami and Atlanta should be able to get over the total on Tuesday just as they did in two out of their last three head-to-head meetings.

I know this is a postseason game but I don’t see Atlanta winning the game with defense. The Heat will win but the Hawks won’t go down without a shootout.

Prediction: Over 227.5

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