Miami Heat at Detroit Pistons 11/23/2021 NBA Odds and Prediction

The Miami Heat travel to Motor City to take on the Detroit Pistons at the latter’s Little Caesars Arena on Tuesday night.

Miami saw its four-game winning streak snapped by the Washington Wizards in the second of their home-and-away series. The Heat blew a 16 point third-quarter lead and a 10-point edge with 4:42 left in the game and lost the game 103-100. The Heat are 12-5 on the season, 1st in the Southeast Division, and 3rd in the Eastern Conference team standings.

Detroit also blew a big lead against the Lakers on Sunday. The Pistons entered the 4th quarter with a 15-point lead but allowed Los Angles to rally behind Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook. The Lakers eventually came up with the big plays down the stretch and won the game 121-116. The Pistons are 4-12 on the season and in the bottom of the Central Division and are next to last from the bottom of the Eastern Conference.

Miami Heat

Miami looks to get back on track after a two-day rest that followed their Saturday loss to the Wizards in Washington. Jimmy Butler led the Heat with 29 in a losing effort while Tyler Herro added 20. P.J. Tucker added 14 points on 5-6 shooting. Tucker has made 17 out of his last 20 shots from the field.

The Heat are 7th in the league in scoring at 109.8 points per game this season. They are 4th in rebounding at 46.9 boards grabbed per contest and 7th in passing at 24.1 assists per game. Detroit ranks 20th in the NBA in scoring defense as they are allowing 108.6 points per game this season.

What are the Moneyline Odds?

Heat

-450

Pistons

+360

Odds from BetOnline as of 11/23/2021

Detroit Pistons

Detroit had the Lakers on the ropes on Sunday but could not hold on to a big lead. Now they have lost two straight games and have dropped three out of their last four home contests. Jerami Grant had a huge game with 36 points while Saddiq Bey and Cade Cunningham added 14 and 13 points, respectively. Hamidou Diallo scored 17 points off the Pistons bench.

The Pistons are one of the league’s worst scoring teams at 99.5 points per game, 29th overall. They are also just 29th in rebounding at 41.7 boards grabbed per contest and are 26th in passing at 21.6 assists per game. Miami has the 4th best scoring defense overall this season at only 102.4 points per game allowed.

Who Wins?

Miami is 4-1 SU in their last five games played. The Heat are 5-5 SU in 10 home games played this season. Detroit is 4-16 SU in their last 20 games played. The Pistons are 1-6 SU in their last seven games played at home.

Head to head, the Heat are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played against the Pistons.

Detroit has struggled to come off the gates but that was expected of this rebuilding team. Cade Cunningham is slowly showing why he is the no. 1 pick. Jerami Grant continues to play solid basketball. The Pistons, however, will be missing Isaiah Stewart who has been suspended for his altercation with LeBron James. Stewart is averaging 7 points and 7 rebounds per game.

Look for the Heat to start another winning streak with a big against the Pistons.

Prediction: Miami Heat

Other Bets to Make

The Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last six games played. Miami is 4-2 ATS in their last six games against the Eastern Conference, 4-1 ATS in their last five games after a straight up loss, 4-1 in their last five games after a two-day rest, 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games as betting favorites, 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after scoring more than 100 points in their previous game, and 7-3-1 ATS in their last 10 games after an ATS loss.

The Pistons are 7-13 ATS in their last 20 games played. Detroit is 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games as betting underdogs, 7-18-1 in their last 26 games after an ATS win, 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games when playing on one day rest, 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games against an opponent with a winning SU record, and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games.

Head to head, the Heat are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games played against the Pistons.

What are the Spread Odds?

Heat

-9.5 (-110)

Pistons

+9.5 (-110)

Odds from BetOnline as of 11/23/2021

In their last five wins, the Heat have won by an average winning margin of 9.2 points per game. Miami is also 6-2 ATS in 8 games as favorites of five or more points.

Meanwhile, the Pistons have lost by 9.7 points per game when playing in the underdog role. Isaiah Stewart will miss this and their next game as a result of the two-game suspension for his outburst against the Lakers. Stewart is averaging 7.3 points and 7.1 rebounds per game so he is a loss on both ends of the floor.

The Pistons are 7-9 ATS this season but I don’t trust them to cover against a Miami Heat team that is one of the best in the East right now, not just in the standings but in covering the spread as well. I’ll lay the points and take the Heat here.

Prediction: Miami Heat -9.5

The total has gone over in seven out of the last nine games played by the Heat. Miami has seen the total go over in six out of their last eight road games, 8-2 in their last 10 games after an ATS loss, 19-7 in their last 26 after a straight up loss, 5-0 in their last five games against an opponent with a losing straight up record, and 8-3 in their last 11 road games as betting favorites.

The total has gone over in four out of the last five games played by the Pistons The over is 4-1 in their last five games as underdogs, 4-1 in their last five Tuesday games, 4-1-1 in their last six games against an opponent with a winning percentage of .600 or better, 4-1 in their last five games against an opponent with a winning straight up record, and 5-0 when their opponent allows more than 100 points per game in their previous game.

The trends point to under but the recent performance of these teams seems to point otherwise.

Detroit is the third lowest-scoring team in the league this season at only 99.5 points per game scored. They have been held to below 100 points in five out of their last 10 games played and have shot just 41.1% from the field during that stretch.

Miami has allowed its last 10 opponents to score an average of 104.8 points per game while scoring 105.7 PPG during that stretch. The Heat have given up 105 or fewer points in each of their last five games, including below 100 points thrice.

With how the Heat have played defense and how the Pistons have struggled to shoot as of late, this should be a low-scoring game that fails to hit the 207.5 total.

Prediction: Under 207.5

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