Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks 04/19/2023 NBA Odds and Prediction

The Miami Heat look to take a 2-0 series lead against the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 2 of their best-of-seven first-round series on Wednesday night at the Fiserv Forum.

Miami stole Game 1 130-117 after the Bucks lost Giannis Antetokounmpo in the first quarter due to injury. The Heat also lost Tyler Herro to injury in the second quarter but they managed to wax hot from deep to steal home-court advantage in the series. Miami has won three of five against Milwaukee this season and the Game 1 win proved they can win on the road against the Bucks.

Miami Heat

The Heat stole Game 1 and home-court advantage with a 13-point win. Miami benefited from the injury to Giannis Antetokouonmpo, who played only in the first quarter due to injury. With Giannis out, the Heat stormed to a 13-point halftime lead which they would never relinquish. They outscored the Bucks 62-46 in points in the paint to take the series opener despite losing Tyler Herro to a season-ending injury.

Jimmy Butler led the Heat with 35 points and 11 assists while playing 43 minutes in the game. Miami waxed hot from deep by hitting 15 of 25 triples. Gabe Vincent and Kevin Love, each made four three-pointers. Bam Adebayo had a solid all-around effort with 22 points, 9 rebounds, and 7 assists while Caleb Martin added 15 off the bench.

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks dodged a bullet when Giannis Antetokounmpo’s X-rays were negative. Giannis played in just 11 minutes in Game 1 after suffering a lower back injury. With a couple of days’ rest, there may be a chance that he suits up and plays on Wednesday night. As of Tuesday however, he is still listed as doubtful. But then again that’s better than the Heat’s situation as they have lost Tyler Herro for the rest of the season.

Khris Middleton led the way with 33 points and 9 rebounds while shooting 60% from the floor. Despite the loss, the game was a good sign for the Bucks as he battled with injuries throughout the season and averaged only 15.1 points per game, his lowest since 2016-17. Jrue Holiday also had a big game with 16 points and 16 assists and the two will need to deliver the same effort in Game 2.

Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks 4/19/23 SU Prediction

The Heat are 1-2 SU in their last three games played against the Bucks. Miami is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games played in Milwaukee.

Miami Heat SU trends:

• The Heat are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games played.
• The Heat are 18-24 SU in 42 road games played this season.
• The Heat are 10-17 SU in their last 27 road games against the Eastern Conference.
• The Heat are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games played against the Central Division.
• The Heat are 8-2 SU in their last 10 April games.

Milwaukee Bucks SU trends:

• The Bucks are 13-7 SU in their last 20 games played.
• The Bucks are 15-5 SU in their last 20 games played at home.
• The Bucks are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games played against the Southeast Division.
• The Bucks are 19-8 SU in their last 27 home games against the Eastern Conference.
• The Bucks are 35-18 SU in 53 home games against the Eastern Conference this season.

It was a tough Game 1 for both teams as each side lost a key player due to injury.

For the Heat, second-leading scorer Tyler Herro suffered a broken hand and is scheduled to undergo season-ending surgery later this week. Herro scored 12 points and helped the Heat build a 68-55 halftime lead over the Bucks. With Herro out, head coach Erik Spoelstra has not announced who will start in Game 2.

However, it should be a toss-up between Caleb Martin and Duncan Robinson. Martin is the likely starter though as he opened the season in the starting unit and was a starter in 47 out of the team’s first 59 games. Meanwhile, it was Robinson who opened the second half of Game 1 vice Herro.

While the Heat have lost Herro for the series, the Bucks are glad that X-rays on Giannis Antetokounmpo were negative. The Greek Freak suffered a lower back/ tailbone injury early in Game 1. He only played in the first quarter and finished with six points and three rebounds in the loss.

With two days between games, head coach Mike Budenholzer is hopeful that his superstar feels better and could possibly play on Wednesday night. As of Tuesday night, Antetokounmpo is listed as doubtful and whether he plays or not will have a significant impact on who wins this game.

In Game 1, the Heat shot 15-25 from deep while the Bucks hit only 11-45 three-point attempts. Gabe Vincent made 4 of 5 triples while veteran Kevin Love hit four out of 7 tries from downtown. The 15 three-pointers represented the most allowed by the Bucks this year and were the highest since the Suns made 13 of 19 three-pointers during Game 5 of the 2021 NBA Finals.

Jimmy Butler led the Heat with 35 points while Bam Adebayo added 22 points, 9 rebounds, and 7 assists. On the other hand, Khris Middleton led the Bucks with 33 points while Jrue Holiday had a massive double-double with 16 points and 16 assists.

The Heat have won three of five games against the Bucks this season and Game 1 was their first win in Milwaukee this year. The Bucks have not fallen down 0-2 in a playoff series since the 2021 NBA Finals against the Suns. They went on to win four straight games to win the NBA title.

Oddsmakers have the Bucks at -6 points as of Tuesday night. That means there’s a good chance Giannis plays. That’s all I needed to know because Herro isn’t on the other side of the court and he’s the Heat’s second-leading scorer. Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks -220

Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks 4/19/23 ATS Prediction

The Heat are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games played against the Bucks.

Miami Heat ATS trends:

• The Heat are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games.
• The Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600.
• The Heat are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games versus a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The Heat are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 games following a straight-up win.
• The Heat are 11-23 ATS in their last 34 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Heat are 10-21 ATS in their last 31 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Heat are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Heat are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Wednesday games.
• The Heat are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight-up win of more than 10 points.
• The Heat are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 2 days rest.
• The Heat are 7-27-1 ATS in their last 35 games following an ATS win.
• The Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.

Milwaukee Bucks ATS trends:

• The Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• The Bucks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.
• The Bucks are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 Wednesday games.
• The Bucks are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 Conference Quarterfinals games.
• The Bucks are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games following an ATS loss.
• The Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up loss.
• The Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up loss of more than 10 points.
• The Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning straight-up record
• The Bucks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

Both teams lost key contributors in Game 1 but not only did the Bucks lose theirs earlier in the game, but Milwaukee lost its best player Giannis Antetokounmpo. The difference in Game 2 is that Miami’s Herro is out for the season while Antetokounmpo is listed as doubtful for the game. However, with the Bucks currently listed at +9 by the oddsmakers, it’s likely he plays the game. If he does, that’s going to be the difference maker.

Miami doesn’t have its second-leading scorer. The Bucks will likely get their best player back. Give me the Bucks to bounce back and even the series.

Prediction: Bucks -6

Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks 4/19/23 Over/Under Prediction

The over is 7-3 in the last 10 games played between these two teams. The total has gone over in each of the last six meetings in Milwaukee.

Miami Heat over/under trends:

• The over is 6-0 in the Heat’s last 6 overall.
• The over is 4-0 in the Heat’s last 4 road games.
• The over is 5-0 in the Heat’s last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 5-0 in the Heat’s last 5 games following an ATS win.
• The over is 6-0 in the Heat’s last 6 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 5-0 in the Heat’s last 5 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 5-0 in the Heat’s last 5 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 6-0 in the Heat’s last 6 games following a straight-up win.
• The over is 4-0 in the Heat’s last 4 games following a straight-up win of more than 10 points.
• The over is 4-1 in the Heat’s last 5 games playing on 2 days’ rest.
• The over is 6-2 in the Heat’s last 8 games versus a team with a winning % above .600.
• The over is 5-2 in the Heat’s last 7 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.
• The over is 19-9-1 in the Heat’s last 29 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.
• The under is 18-6 in the Heat’s last 24 Conference Quarterfinals games.

Milwaukee Bucks over/under trends:

• The over is 4-1 in the Bucks’ last 5 games played overall.
• The over is 17-7 in the Bucks’ last 24 home games against a team with a losing road record.
• The over is 7-3 in the Bucks’ last 10 versus a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The over is 4-1 in the Bucks’ last 5 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 6-2 in the Bucks’ last 8 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 6-2 in the Bucks’ last 8 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 8-3 in the Bucks’ last 11 games following a straight-up loss of more than 10 points
• The over is 7-1 in the Bucks’ last 8 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game
• The under is 5-1 in the Bucks’ last 6 Conference Quarterfinals games.
• The under is 5-1 in the Bucks’ last 6 games playing on 2 days’ rest.
• The under is 5-2 in the Bucks’ last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home.
• The under is 5-2 in the Bucks’ last 7 Wednesday games.

Game 1 went over 220.5 points even if Giannis didn’t play for three quarters and even if the Heat lost Herro after the first half. With Antetokounmpo having a probability to play and the Heat having a couple of days to prepare without Herro, I expect the teams to put up the same kind of game on Wednesday night. Butler and Middleton each put up at least 30 in Game 1 while Holiday had 16 assists. With the offense looking good in Game 1, this should be another high-scoring affair.

Prediction: Over 219

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