Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks 05/24/2021 NBA Playoffs Odds and Preview

The Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks meet again at the Fiserv Forum on Monday night for Game 2 of their best-of-seven first-round playoff series.

Miami nearly stole Game 1 from Milwaukee as they forced overtime and gave themselves a chance to win the game. However, Milwaukee showed nerves of steel and Khris Middleton hit the game-winning basket with less than one second left in OT as the Bucks escaped with a 109-107 win to take a 1-0 series lead.

Miami Heat

The Miami Heat look to bounce back from that close Game 1 defeat to tie the series. Miami kept the game close but could not pull off the upset. In the end, it was Milwaukee’s Khris Middleton who sank a jumper with 0.5 left in the clock to give the Bucks a 109-107 win.

Miami sank a playoff franchise record of 20 three-pointers in Game 1 while taking a total of 50 rainbow shots as they tried to break Milwaukee’s solid interior defense. Duncan Robinson made seven three-pointers while scoring 24 points while Goran Dragic came off the bench to score 25 to lead the Heat. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo combined to shoot 8-37 from the floor.

The Heat defense limited Giannis Antetokoumpo to 10-27 field goal shooting but he still managed to score 26 points and grab 18 rebounds. As a team, Milwaukee shot just 5-31 from deep after ranking 4th in the league at 38.9% in three-point shooting. Meanwhile, Miami made 20 of 50 three-pointers or 40% to keep the game close.

Milwaukee Bucks

The Milwaukee Bucks are lucky to come away with a win in Game 1. Now they look to win again at home and take control of the series before it shifts to Miami. Milwaukee is 26-10 at the Fiserv Forum this season and they are 30-12 against their Eastern Conference rivals.

Khris Middleton led the Bucks with 27 points including the game-winner. Giannis Antetokounmpo bucked a poor shooting game to score 26 points and grab 18 rebounds while Jrue Holiday added 20 points and Brook Lopez 18.

The Bucks defense held down Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo to a combined 8-37 from the field while limiting the Heat to 36.4% from the field, with Miami making only 36 out of 99 shot attempts in the game. They also outrebounded the Heat 64-51 and outscored Miami 56-24 in points in the paint.

Who Wins?

The Heat are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games played. Miami is 5-2 SU in their last seven games played on the road, and 6-2 in their last eight games against the Eastern Conference. The Bucks are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games played. Milwaukee is 9-0 SU in their last nine games played at home, and 9-1 SU in their last 10 games against the Eastern Conference. Head to head, the Bucks are 4-2 SU in their last six games played against the Heat.

Both teams have areas to improve based on their Game 1 performance. Giannis threatened to dominate in Game 1 yet the Heat still managed to stay close, even if Butler and Adebayo had tough games. Milwaukee won despite Giannis shooting 37% from the field and 46% from the foul line.

I expect Milwaukee to shoot better from the three-point distance but the Heat should also get better games from Butler and Adebayo. This one’s a tough choice and I’d rather go with the spread odds. But if you point a gun to my head, I will have to go with the Heat who nearly pulled off the upset with their two best players struggling.

Prediction: Miami Heat +165

Other Bets to Make

Miami is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games played. The Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games played on the road, 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games after a straight up loss, 5-0 ATS in their last five conference quarterfinal games, and 5-1 ATS in their last six playoff games as underdogs.

Milwaukee is 1-7 ATS in their last eight games played. The Bucks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games played on May, 1-5 ATS in their last six games after an ATS loss, 1-7 ATS in their last eight games played as favorites, 1-5 ATS in their last six games after a straight up win, and 1-4 ATS in their last five games played at home.

Head to head, the Heat are 8-4 ATS in their last dozen games against the Bucks. Milwaukee is also 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Milwaukee.

With the kind of defense that these two teams have, I don’t think one of them can have an offensive explosion that will blow out the other team. I expect another low-scoring and tight game between these two teams. Miami covered the spread during the series-opener and given that the game was decided by one possession, giving Miami 4.5 points could be too much. I expect both teams to shoot better but once again, this should go down the wire and could be decided in the final play of the game.

Prediction: Heat +4.5

The total has gone over in 11 out of the last 14 games played by the Heat. The over is 5-2 in their last seven games played against the Central Division. Miami has seen the total go over in each of their last four games after a straight up loss. The over is also 10-2 after allowing more than 100 points in their previous game, 6-2 in their last eight games when playing on one day rest, and 6-2 in their last eight games overall.

The Bucks have seen the total go over in 41 out of the 73 games they’ve played this season. The over is 8-0 in their last eight Monday games, 5-1 in their last six games after a straight up win, 6-2 in their last eight quarterfinals games, and 5-2 in their last seven home games. Milwaukee has seen the total go over in 12 of 22 home games against the Eastern Conference.

Head to head, the total has gone under in six out of the last 10 meetings between these two teams. The under is also 4-1 in the last five meetings in Milwaukee.

These teams combined to score 216 points in Game 1 and both teams shot poorly. Miami made only 36% of their shots while the Bucks shot just 16% from three-point distance. I expect a bounce-back game from Butler and Adebayo while I expect the Bucks to shoot better from three-point distance. Milwaukee was the top-scoring team in the league during the regular season and was in the bottom half in scoring defense. Miami had a Top 5 defense and was averaging just 108 points per game during the regular season. However, they scored 120+ points in six out of their last 10 games played. This won’t be a track meet but 222.5 is too low for these offensively gifted teams.

Prediction: Over 222.5

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