Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics 05/23/2022 Preview and Prediction

The Miami Heat and Boston Celtics meet again on Monday night for Game 4 of the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals at the TD Garden.

Miami withstood a late comeback by the Celtics to win Game 3 109-103 to take back the home-court advantage in the series. Boston blew out Miami in South Beach in Game 2 to equalize the series. But the Heat started like a house on fire and took a 21-point first-quarter lead in Game 3. Miami lost Jimmy Butler to a knee injury and the Celtics rallied to cut the deficit to one at 92-93. Fortunately for the Heat, Max Strus and Bam Adebayo made big shots down the stretch as they held off the Celtics’ late comeback.

Now Miami looks to push Boston deeper in the hole while the Celtics attempt to tie the series again.

Miami Heat

After averaging only 8.0 points per game in the first two games of the series, Bam Adebayo came alive in Game 3 with 31 points, 10 rebounds, 6 assists, and 4 steals. Adebayo shot 15-22 from the field after taking only a total of 10 shots in the first two games of the series. Meanwhile, Max Strus finished with 16 points on 6-12 shooting. Strus made four of seven three-pointers including the decisive basket which gave the Heat a 96-92 lead after the Celtics cut the lead to one.

The Heat were inspired by the return of guard Kyle Lowry who returned from injury to contribute 11 points and 6 assists. However, Miami’s concern is superstar Jimmy Butler who did not play in the entire second half of Game 3 with a right knee inflammation. Butler finished with only 8 points in 20 minutes. He is listed as questionable for Monday’s Game 4 and his availability could be the key to winning or losing the game for the Heat.

In my latest for @CelticsBlog I look at two main ways the Heat exploited Boston’s half-court defense in the first half of the game, and yes, Adebayo played a HUGE role. https://t.co/KpURN1FXGd pic.twitter.com/zS1UmwEVOL

— Adam Taylor (@AdamTaylorNBA) May 23, 2022

Boston Celtics

Jayson Tatum will have to regain his form as the Celtics try to even their Eastern Conference Finals series against the Miami Heat on Monday night. Tatum never found his shot in Game 3 as he made just 3 of 14 shots and scored 10 points with 6 turnovers. For the series, Tatum has committed a total of 16 turnovers.

With their main man struggling, the Celtics fell behind early and never recovered. Good thing for Boston, Jaylen Brown scored a personal-playoff high with 40 points while Al Horford also had a big night with 20 points and 14 rebounds. Behind the two, Boston rallied to cut a 26-point lead down to just one before the Heat killed the comeback with big baskets down the stretch.

Who Wins?

Miami is 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played against Boston.

The Heat are:

• 4-1 SU in their last five games played.

• 2-2 SU in their last four games played on the road.

• 15-5 SU in their last 20 games against the Eastern Conference.

• 6-3 SU in their last nine May games.

The Celtics are:

• 13-6 SU in their last 19 games played.

• 12-5 SU in their last 17 games played at home.

• 6-1 SU in their last seven Monday games.

• 22-11 SU in their last 33 home games against the Eastern Conference.

If the Celtics dominated Game 2 behind the return of Marcus Smart and Al Horford, Game 3 belonged to the Heat who celebrated Kyle Lowry’s first game back since Game 4 of the previous round. With Lowry back orchestrating their offense, the Heat raced to a 21-point first-quarter lead and never looked back. Miami led by as many as 26 points and never trailed in Game 3.

Meanwhile, the Celtics shot blanks after a red-hot Game 2 where they knocked down 20 three-pointers on 50% three-point shooting. Boston went 12-32 in Game 3 and missed a total of 7 free throws which would’ve changed the outcome of the game. Jayson Tatum was held down to only 10 points by P.J. Tucker. The Miami defense also forced 24 turnovers and had 19 total steals.

Tatum, Robert Williams III, and Marcus Smart are all listed as questionable. But more than Boston’s possible absences, the Heat have listed Butler, Lowry, Tucker, Strus, and Tyler Herro as questionable. The key will be Butler who is Miami’s top player and is dealing perhaps with the most serious injury on the list.

Jayson Tatum has bounced back from every bad game in the current playoffs with a strong performance that has led to a Celtics win. Boston has not lost two in a row in the postseason and being down 2-1 is nothing new to them. I expect the Celtics to deliver a bounce-back performance behind Tatum. Give me the Celtics to tie the series at 2 games apiece.

Prediction: Boston Celtics

Heat vs Celtics Game 4 Spread Prediction

The Heat are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games played against the Celtics. Miami is also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Boston

The Heat are

• 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

• 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 road games.

• 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.

• 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday games.

• 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600.

• 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games versus an opponent with a winning straight-up record.

• 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

• 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog.

• 10-4 ATS in their last 14 Conference Finals games.

• 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

• 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

• 19-8 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog.

• 9-4 ATS in their last 13 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

• 2-5 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as an underdog.

The Celtics are :

• 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall.

• 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

• 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

• 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

• 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.

• 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

• 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.

• 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up loss.

• 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday games.

• 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 1 day’s rest.

• 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 games vs. a team with a winning straight-up record.

• 27-13-1 ATS in their last 41 playoff games as favorites.

The first two games of this series were double-digit wins for both teams with Miami winning by 11 in Game 1 and Boston answering with a 25-point blowout in Game 2. Game 3 was the most competitive game of the series. However, it didn’t start that way.

Miami raced to a 21-point first-quarter lead and led by as many as 26 points. Boston chopped the lead to 15 at the half and 15 at the end of three quarters before storming back to cut the least to one at 92-93 but the Heat made big shots down the stretch to hold on and take back home-court advantage.

Despite winning Game 3, the Heat are seven-point underdogs in Game 4. Sure, it’s played at the TD Garden and the Heat were +6 in Game 3 but there may be another reason why Miami is a sizable underdog and that’s the status of Jimmy Butler. Miami survived Game 3 but we know Butler is the heart and soul of the team. If Butler misses Game 4 or plays compromised, the Celtics will not just have the manpower advantage but the mental confidence to win Game 4.

The Celtics and Jayson Tatum have been known to bounce back with big wins after every loss they have suffered in the current postseason. That should be the case here as well. Boston bounced back with a big Game 4 win.

Prediction: Celtics -7

Heat vs Celtics Game 4 Over/Under

The total has gone over in four out of the last five meetings between these two teams. The over is also 5-1 in the last six meetings in Boston.

Miami Heat Over/Under Odds:

• Under is 9-4 in the Heat’s last 13 overall.

• Under is 4-1 in theHeat’s last 5 road games.

• Under is 8-3 in the Heat’s last 11 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

• Under is 8-3 in the Heat’s last 11 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

• Under is 5-2 in the Heat’s last 7 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

• Under is 5-2 in the Heat’s last 7 games as an underdog.

• Over is 9-1 in the Heat’s last 10 games against a team with a winning straight-up record.

• Over is 21-7 in the Heat’s last 28 Conference Finals games.

• Over is 21-8 in the Heat’s last 29 road games versus. a team with a winning home record.

• Over is 5-2 in the Heat’s last 7 Monday games.

• Over is 15-6 in the Heat’s last 21 road games against an opponent with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.

Boston Celtics over/under odds:

• Under is 4-1 in the Celtics’ last 5 games as a favorite.

• Under is 4-1 in the Celtics’ last 5 playoff games as a favorite.

• Under is 4-1 in the Celtics’ last 5 games as a home favorite.

• Under is 4-1 in the Celtics’ last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record.

• Under is 4-1 in the Celtics’ last 5 home games.

• Over is 5-2 in the Celtics’ last 7 overall.

• Over is 5-2 in the Celtics’ last 7 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

• Over is 5-2 in the Celtics’ last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

• Over is 11-4 in the Celtics’ last 15 games playing on one day’s rest.

• Over is 4-1 in the Celtics’ last 5 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

• Over is 4-1 in the Celtics’ last 5 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

• Over is 5-0 in the Celtics’ last 5 Monday games.

• Over is 7-0 in the Celtics’ last 7 Conference Finals games.

• Over is 10-2 in the Celtics’ last 12 games against a team with a winning straight-up record.

These are two of the top defensive teams in the league this season. Boston was the top defensive team during the regular season and third-best in the playoffs. Miami is currently the postseason’s top defensive team. Because of their defensive prowess, the total for this series has been set at 203, 206, and 207.5. But those totals have proven to be too low for these two teams as they have gone over in all of the first three games of the series with no total going over 212.

Offensively, the Celtics are averaging 109. 3 points per game in the playoff while the Heat are putting up 107.6 points per game for a combined total of just under 217 points. Both teams have hit at least 100 points in each game of the series with Boston’s 103 points in Game 3 the lowest production by any team.

The first three games of the series have given us an indication of how these teams match up and how they will play against each other. Based on what we’ve seen so far, these teams are good for at least a total of 210 points so anything below that should be considered too low. I’ll follow the lead until proven otherwise.

Prediction: Over 208

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