Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets 11/05/19 NBA Odds, Preview, and Prediction

The Miami Heat look to extend their three-game winning streak when they take on the Denver Nuggets at the Pepsi Center on November 5, 2019.

Off to a Good Start

The Miami Heat are off to a good start this season. Miami is 5-1 SU and is currently the #1 team in the Southeast Division. After losing to the Timberwolves in Jimmy Butler’s Heat debut, Miami has racked up three straight wins. Although two of those victories were against the Atlanta Hawks, Miami is coming off a 29-point win against the Houston Rockets.

Butler had 18 points, 7 rebounds, 9 assists and four steals for the Heat as he has preferred to let his other teammates do the scoring. In the Houston game, Duncan Robinson had 23 points while Myers Leonard had 21. Miami has also gotten key contributions from rookies Kendrick Nunn and Tyler Herro who have combined to average 34 points per game.

The Heat rank 6th in scoring at 117.8 points per game this season. Miami is 4th in passing at 27.0 assists per game while they rank 10th in rebounding at 47.0 boards grabbed per contest. On defense, Miami has the 10th best scoring defense in the NBA at only 106.2 points per game allowed.

The Denver Nuggets snapped their two-game losing streak with a hard-fought victory over the Orlando Magic in their last assignment. Now 4-2 SU on the season, Denver will try to look to build momentum when they host the Miami Heat whom they have beaten in their last two encounters. The Nuggets are the NBA betting favorites to beat the Heat in this matchup.

Jamal Murray leads the Nuggets with 18.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 3.5 assists. Will Barton is scoring 14 points per game while grabbing 6.3 rebounds per contest. But the concern right now in Denver is Nikola Jokic who is averaging only 15.8 points per game this season. Jokic’s early struggles have pushed Denver to 24th in the league in scoring.

Denver is 25th in the league in scoring at 103.5 points per game this season. The Nuggets are 17th in rebounding at 45.0 boards per contest and they are 25th in passing at 21.2 dimes per outing. Denver is one of the better defensive teams this season as they are allowing just 103.2 points per game this season.

Who Wins?

Miami is 5-1 SU in their last six games played. The Heat are 2-1 SU in their three road games played this season and 5-2 SU in their last seven games against the Western Conference. Denver is 4-2 SU in their last six games played. The Nuggets are 1-1 SU in two home games played this season, 7-2 SU in their last nine games against the Eastern Conference, and 5-1 SU in their last six games against the Southeast Division. Head to head, the Nuggets are 4-1 SU in their last five games played against the Heat.

The Miami Heat have looked impressive to start the season. Even when Jimmy Butler didn’t play at the start of the season, Miami already looked good. With Butler slowly blending with his new teammates, the Heat have won their last three games. The Heat have gotten big contributions from rookies Kendrick Nunn and Tyler Herro as well.

The Nuggets are 4-2 right now but they have not looked impressive at all. Denver lost back to back games to Dallas and New Orleans then had trouble beating Orlando last November 2. Nikola Jokic has been as expected but with the much improved Bam Adebayo on the other end, the Joker could have more problems here.

Both these teams have shown a stout defense early in the season but Miami has displayed better offense. I think this goes down to Miami’s scoring and they will be able to put up more points on the board than the Nuggets. As stated above, I like Adebayo to play a key role here in his matchup with Jokic. I’m picking the Miami Heat to pull off the upset against the Denver Nuggets.

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Other Bets to Make

The Heat are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games played and Miami is 2-0-1 ATS in their three road games played this season. The Nuggets are 2-3-1 ATS in six games played this season. Denver is 1-4 ATS in their last five games played at home and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games played in November. Head to head, the Nuggets are 3-2 ATS in their last five meetings against the Heat.

Denver has outscored Miami by an average of four points per game in their last three meetings although these teams have been separated by less than a point in terms of the average score in their last 10 games played. Both are pretty good defensive teams this season but the Heat has shown they can score big. The Heat have won by an average of 17.67 points per game an by no less than nine points per game during their three-game winning streak. The Nuggets are 1-2 SU in their last three games played and barely beat the Magic in their last game by four points. Give me Miami and the plus points here.

Prediction: Heat +4.5

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The total has gone under in the last three games played by the Heat. Miami has seen the total go over in two of three road games played so far this season. The total has gone under in five out of the last seven games played by the Nuggets. Head to head, the total has gone under in four out of the last six games between these two teams and the under is 6-1 in the last seven head to head games played in Denver.

These teams have combined to scored 212.3 points per game in their last 10 meetings and 227.33 points per game in their last three encounters. The Heat have gone over the 209-point total in four out of their six games played this season while the Nuggets have scored at least 106 points in four of six games played this year. These are two good defensive teams but Miami is averaging 115.6 points per game this season and is coming off a 129 point effort against Houston. I think 209 is too low a total.

Prediction: Over 209

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