Holloway vs Poirier 2 - UFC 236 Fight Card Odds and Predictions

UFC 236 happens this coming Saturday, April 13, 2019 at the State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia.

Reigning featherweight champion Max Holloway takes on Dustin Poirier for the interim UFC lightweight title in the main event. Meanwhile, a second interim title fight between Kelvin Gastelum and Israel Adesanya will be the co-main event of UFC 236.  A couple of week ago, we wrote our preview and predictions for UFC 236. For today, we’ll revisit the bouts and check on the odds as the lines have moved, as expected, with the arrival of UFC betting money from both camps.

Schedule Of Bouts

When we first wrote our preview, we only knew who was fighting who. Now we also know who’s fighting who first. Here is the order of bouts for the main card of UFC 236 as confirmed by the UFC:

So as expected, the two interim title bouts are the main and co-main event of UFC 236. Holloway vs Poirier will be for the interim lightweight title with the  champion Khabib Nurmagomedov serving a nine-month suspension due to his involvement in the post UFC 229 brawl. With Khabib eligible to return only on July 6, 2019, the winner of the rematch between “Blessed” and “Diamond” will become the interim lightweight champion.

On the other hand, UFC middleweight champion Robert Whitaker pulled out of UFC 234 the night before the event after undergoing emergency surgery due to an abdominal issue, the UFC booked Whitaker’s UFC 234 opponent, Kelvin Gastelum to an interim title bout against Israel Adesanya at UFC 236. The Gastelum vs Adesanya scrap is the co-main event of the April 13, 2019 affair.

Eryk Anders will move back to light heavyweight to take on former The Ultimate Fighter finalist Khalil Rountree in the third bout of the event. Next on hand is a welterweight bout between Alan Jouban versus Dwight Grant. The 37-year old Jouban is fighting for the first time in 14 months and will be facing the winner of the  Dana White Tuesday Night Contender Series.

Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier

Last month, I predicted Max Holloway to win on points, citing his edge in the standup and his fight IQ. I don’t think that’s changed because Holloway is in his prime and is coming off a dominant performance over Brian Ortega. However, this is a lightweight bout and perhaps the change in weight will have an effect on Holloway.  But I don’t think so. I still remember Max stepping up on short notice to fight Khabib Nurmagomedov after Tony Ferguson pulled out of their last scheduled bout. So if Max is willing to be fed to the lion, he must be comfortable at this weight class. With Holloway’s odds going down to -205, maybe it’s the right time to bet on Max because he’s coming in cheaper today than he was a couple of weeks ago.

I won’t blame you really if you picked Dustin Poirier here. Poirier knocked out Max Holloway but that was a long seven years ago. Max has used time to become one of the best pound for pound fighters in the planet. No question about that. Poirier also comes at plus money so he’s a tempting bet. But I still think Max is the better fighter here and he also has more motive to win this bout. Prediction: Max Holloway by decision

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Israel Adesanya vs Kelvin Gastelum

Israel Adesanya vs Kelvin Gastelum is a very intriguing co-main event. When we first previewed this bout, it looked like this was going to be the crowning of Israel Adesanya. But the longer the wait, I’ve come to realize that this should be more closer than what I first thought it would be, Gastelum has one-punch knockout power and is an excellent counter-puncher. He’s a guy who alters destiny with a single punch. We saw Anderson Silva connect on Adesanya and we saw the latter getting exposed at times.

Adesanya though is a special talent. He may be untested but there is no doubt the skills  are there. The only way to find out what stuff he is made of is for him to take these kind of fights. The Last Stylebender has the edge in size and length and being smart, I think he will use both to his advantage. He may be young and raw but he is smart and I think he will play this fight smart. Adesanya’s price has dropped and at -160, you’re looking at a legit future world champion here. Prediction: Israel Adesanya by decision

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Eryk Anders vs Khalil Rountree

Eryk Anders has lost three out of his last four bouts and may need a big win here to keep his UFC career going. Anders stands 6-1 and has a reach of 75 inches while fighting as a southpaw. Ya Boi has a record of 11-3 with 7 wins by knockout. A former football player, Anders’ bread and butter is his striking. He can fight on the ground but his wrestling is just basic.

Khalil Rountree is the former TUF 23 finalist. He’s 7-3-0-1 with five knockouts but is just 3-3-0-1 under the UFC banner. Like Anders, he needs a big win in order for him to move up to bigger fights. In his last bout, Rountree ate a nasty elbow from Johnny Walker that put him to sleep. Rountree has a 50% takedown defense and has yet to land a takedown in his UFC career.  We picked Rountree the last time out at +145 and will be more than happy to get extra plus money at +160 right now. I think this goes either way but I like the value of Rountree here. Prediction: Khalil Rountree by knockout

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Alan Jouban vs Dwight Grant

This one wasn’t previewed in our first UFC 236 article so we’ll try to break down this fight right now.

Dwight Grant was the winner of Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series. The 34-year old is coming off a first round knockout of Carlo Pedersoli Jr. last February. Grant has won eight out of his last nine fights. Grant is 6-1 tall, has a reach of 68 inches and is a switch hitter. His record is 9-2 with 7 knockouts.

On the other hand, Alan Jouban is three years older, one inch shorter in height and gives up five inches in reach to his opponent. Jouban is 16-6 with 10 knockouts and 1 submission. Jouban is 1-2 with two stoppage losses in his last three fight. Jouban last fought on February 24, 2018 when he defeated Ben Saunders by knockout.

Look for ring rust and age to be a factor against Jouban. Grant is also longer so he can keep Jouban and his big punches at bay by pawing at him with jabs. However, Grant is slow with his punches and Jouban has the edge in experience. This is going to be an exciting fight between two aggressive offensive fighters. It’s a pick’em fight really and whoever connects with his bombs first is going to win this game. I’m picking Grant simply because he is coming off a February bout while Jouban should be a little rusty after taking 14 months off. Prediction: Dwight Grant by stoppage

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Ovince Saint Preux vs Nikita Krylov

We talked about OSP having the better fight resume in our previous article and I still think that’s going to be the made difference in this bout. Since Saint Preux submitted Krylov with a rare Von Flue choke, Saint Preux has struggled while Krylov has been on a tear. Both fighters have knockout power and while Krylov is the better grappler, Saint Preux is the better submission artist and lands more takedowns.

Again, this is another pick‘em fight in this event. I think both men can win this fight with one punch and I also think both fighters can submit the other. The question here is who gets it done first? Both have almost identical strike defense but OSP has a much better takedown defense which may be the key here. I think OSP wouldn’t stand and trade with a dangerous knockout artist like Krylov. He’s going to take his chances on the ground where he has the more diverse submission game. Even if you like Krylov, the plus money is gone and he is more expensive than Saint Preux. For all his experience, OSP costs just -107 as of 4/18/19. That’s a bargain. Prediction: Saint Preux by stoppage

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