IEM Katowice Quarter Finals Picks

Two more best-of-threes until semi-finals. This slate of games is a little flat, not a ton of fun to be had, but they should still be some good games.

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MIBR (-200) – Renegades (+140)

Renegades have been putting on a show for the last two weeks. They weren’t a team on anyone’s radar, and yet here they are in the Major quarter-finals, up against the core of one of the three best teams of all time. Renegades have been the true Cinderella story of Katowice, following in the footsteps of compLexity and Winstrike. (Renegades have shown a lot more than either of those teams did at their overperformances, but still.)
Watch [DK] Astralis vs Renegades | IEM Katowice Major 2019 🔥 // !sub, !faceit, !rank, !senestevid // from Kjasperloop on www.twitch.tv
I still can’t trust them unfortunately. This will be their first Major playoffs appearance ever, up against one of two teams to ever win back to back Majors. For me it isn’t even a question.

I do think there’s a strong chance Renegades push it to a map three. So, any bet that would benefit from that call is a winner. I like map overtimes, and round overs. Both teams have complimentary map pools, so neither team should end up playing on a map they hate.

Astralis (-667) – NiP (+375)

This is an easy call, unless you think NiP has a little magic left in the tank. At -667, Astralis don’t have a ton of value in a straight up bet, so let’s comb through the parlays.

Astralis win & under 26.5 rounds is at +100 for all three maps, which I like. NiP have a weak map pool, and they’ll likely have to play Astralis on Nuke or Inferno, depending on their bans. There is really no favorable set of maps for NiP available in this series, which obviously makes it tough.

An HE kill is at -223, which has some value. Inferno will likely get played during the series, which always lends itself to nade kills, especially when Astralis is in the server.

Least deaths is another interesting one. During the New Legends stage Xyp9x died the least, only .48 times per round, and he is listed with the worst odds at +800. What makes it tough is that the next three on that leaderboard are all on Astralis.

The last bet I want to highlight is most clutches won. Astralis is the favorite at -250, with NiP at +175. Xyp9x is one of the most prolific clutch players in the game, so Astralis being favored by that much makes sense. But, this game should be pretty one sided. How often will Astralis actually be in a disadvantageous position, forced to rely on a clutch? I like NiP at +175 here, as they have a lot of individual players who could all have a big game and show up in the clutch for the Swedes.

Parlay

I like both overdogs here. Betway is offering MIBR and Astralis at +172, which isn’t bad. I think the only reason not to do that is faith in Renegades, but they don’t have enough tier one tournament experience to take a best-of-three from MIBR on the main stage in Katowice. So, an MIBR-Astralis parlay is my best bet.

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