Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat 8/24/20 NBA - Betting Odds and Prediction

The Miami Heat have the Indiana Pacers on the ropes in their first-round series matchup. Miami has erected a commanding 3-0 lead in the series and will be looking to end the Pacers’ season with a win on Monday as the teams play in Game 4 of their series in Orlando.

Miami has dominated Indiana this season. They won three out of four regular-season meetings and have also covered the spread in the first three games of this series. Last Saturday, the Heat covered the 5.5 spread, winning the game 124-115. The teams also went over the 213.5 total set for the match.

Indiana Pacers

The Indiana Pacers have been outclassed in this series. The Pacers played their best game so far on Saturday yet it wasn’t enough to pick up their first win against the Heat. But what was more alarming in Game 3 was the fact that Heat rookie Tyler Herro outscored the entire Indiana bench. Indiana was swept 4-0 last season by the Boston Celtics and if they don’t get their act together on Monday, this will be their second consecutive time to be blanked in the playoffs.

The lack of production from their reserves has cost the Pacers this series. Indiana’s starters have been forced to play more minutes, resulting in fatigue and foul trouble down the stretch. With Domantas Sabonis out of the picture for Indiana, the Pacers have struggled to find players who could step up and make up for his numbers.

Malcolm Brogdon scored 34 points and had 14 assists for the Pacers while  T.J Warren and Victor Oladipo added 23 and 20 points, respectively. However, Indiana traveled to Orlando without All-Star Domantas Sabonis due to injury and they have missed his 18.5 points and 12.4 rebounds per game average.

Indiana is ranked 23rd in scoring at 109.4 points per game. They are 25th in rebounding at 42.8 boards grabbed per contest. The Pacers are 3rd in scoring defense at 107.5 points per game allowed and they are 7th in passing at 25.9 assists per game.

Miami Heat

The Miami Heat have started the postseason strong. The Heat have stormed to a 3-0 lead which is almost insurmountable in a seven-game series. No team in the history of the NBA playoffs has come back from a 0-3 series deficit to win the series. Three teams have forced a 3-3 tie but all of them have come short.

The Heat have played well but they have also gotten a big lift from rookie Tyler Herro who is averaging 16.5 points per game in the postseason. Herro is providing the Miami bench with the spark that Indiana’s reserves are missing. His outside shooting has continued to bury the Pacers in this series.

Jimmy Butler led the Heat with 27 points in Game 3. Jimmy Buckets shot just 5-16 from the field but he made 17 out of 20 free throws in the game. Butler is averaging 24.3 points per game in the series. Goran Dragic also had a big night with 24 points while first-time All-Star Bam Adebayo had 22 points and 11 boards in the win.

Miami ranks 15th overall in scoring at 112.0 points per game. They are 17th in rebounding at 44.4 boards grabbed per contest and are 5th in the NBA in passing at 25.9 assists per outing. The Heat are 10th in scoring defense at 109.1 points per game allowed this season.

Who Wins?

The Pacers are 2-4 SU in their last six games played. Indiana is 2-3 SU in their last five games played on the road. The Heat are 4-2 SU in their last six games played. Miami is 2-3 SU in their last five games played on the road. Head to head, the Heat are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played against the Pacers. Indiana is also just 4-16 when playing on the road against Miami.

Indiana doesn’t have the firepower to match Miami, not without Sabonis. The Pacers have not gotten enough support from their bench and that has forced their starters to play more minutes. Indiana’s starting unit has been banged up in this series and the team is getting outclassed by a hungry Miami team.

The Heat have owned this series and the only thing left for them to do here is to deal the knockout blow to the Pacers. Indiana has looked very different with Domantas Sabonis out. I think that Miami is on a roll right now and it’s hard for the Pacers to stop them at this point in time. I can’t find a reason to pick the Pacers here. I like the Heat to get the sweep.

Prediction: Miami Heat

Other Bets To Make

Indiana is 2-4 ATS in their last six games played. The Pacers are 2-3 ATS in their last five games played on the road, 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the Eastern Conference, and 1-4 ATS in their last five games played against the Southeast Division. Miami is 4-2 ATS in their last six games played. Miami is 2-3 ATS in their last five games played on the road, 4-2 ATS in their last six games played in August, and 6-2 in their last eight Monday games. Head to head, these teams have split their last 10 meetings ATS but the Heat are 3-0 ATS in their most recent three encounters.

You can’t deny the effort from the Pacers. They have fought well in the first three games of the series but it hasn’t been enough. WIthout Domantas Sabonis, Indiana doesn’t have enough firepower to match Miami. The Heat have covered the spread in the first three games of this series and there is no reason why they can’t do it again in this game. Miami has all the momentum going here. I like the Heat to sweep the series and cover the spread.

Prediction: Heat -6.5

The total has gone under in five out of the last six games played by the Pacers. The under is 4-1 in Indiana’s last five games played on the road. The total has gone under in four out of the last six games played by the Heat. The under is 4-1 in their last five games played against the Eastern Conference and also 4-1 in their last five games against the Central Division. Head to head, the total has gone under in four out of the last five games played between these two teams.

These teams were in the Top 10 in scoring defense during the regular season and both also play some of the slowest pace in the league with Indiana at 19th and Miami 27th. These teams have played each other four times here in Orlando ( including one during the seeding games) and three of those games hit a total of below 216 points. Game 3 went over 216 but that was primarily because of 64 free throws taken during the game, which is out of the ordinary. We have two blue-collar teams who like to play defense. I like these teams to hit the under.

Prediction: Under 216.5

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