Jacksonville Jaguars vs Washington Commanders 09/11/2022 NFL Odds, Preview, and Prediction

The Jacksonville Jaguars open the Doug Pederson era with a trip to Washington and a date with the Commanders in Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season on Sunday.

Pederson will take over after the failed Urban Meyer experiment and interestingly, he will open his Jacksonville coaching career against the quarterback whom he turned into an MVP contender five years ago – Carson Wentz. Wentz was acquired by the Commanders after spending most of last season with back-up Taylor Heinicke at the helm following the early season injury to starter Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Both these teams struggled in preseason play as the Jaguars went 0-4 SU and ATS, including a loss to the Las Vegas Raiders in the Hall of Fame game. The over went 3-1 in those games. Meanwhile, the Commanders were also winless in the preseason as they went 0-3 SU. They were however 1-2 ATS with the under going 2-1 in their three preseason games.

Jacksonville Jaguars

After the failed Urban Meyer experiment, the Jacksonville Jaguars have moved on with a new head coach in Doug Pederson who will be their third head bench tactician in the last three seasons. Hopefully, they can make progress this time around.

The Jaguars drafted first overall again in the 2022 NFL Draft and they picked Travon Walker to upgrade their defense. Walker and Josh Allen should give Jacksonville a decent linebacker unit. Meanwhile, the team also added wide receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones to give Trevor Lawrence better options this year. Jacksonville’s run defense wasn’t that good last year but they added Folorunso Fatukasi to help that weakness.

Jacksonville ranked 22nd in passing offense at 202.1 yards per game last season. They were also 22nd in rushing yards at 103.2 per contest. The Jaguars were last among 32 teams in scoring with an average of 14.9 points scored per game. Their scoring defense was only 28th at 26.9 points per game allowed.

Washington Commanders

The Commanders won seven games last season despite playing most of the year with their backup quarterback and a tough schedule. While everyone is talking about the Dallas Cowboys and the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East battle, don’t sleep on Washington as this team has enough talent to pull off the surprise.

Washington picked up Carson Wentz from the Indianapolis Colts and although he is coming off a disappointing season last year, he is undoubtedly their best QB since Robert Griffin III. Given the veteran weapons around him, Wentz could be looking at a bounce-back season. Defensively, this team is one of the best in the NFL with the likes of Chase Young, Montez Sweat, Jonathan Allen, and Daron Payne in the front seven.

The Commanders were 21st in the NFL in passing offense at 202.4 yards per game. They were much better on the ground with 121.2 rushing yards per game, 12th best overall. Washington was tied for 23d in scoring at only 19.7 points per game and was 25th in scoring defense at 25.5 points per game allowed.

Jaguars vs Washington Moneyline 

The Jaguars are 1-6 SU in their last seven games against the Commanders. Jacksonville is also 0-3 SU in their last four games played in Washington.

Jacksonville Jaguars SU trends:

• The Jaguars are 1-8 SU in their last 9 games played.

• The Jaguars are 0-17 SU in their last 17 games played on the road.

• The Jaguars are 2-8 SU in their 10 games played against the NFC East Division.

• The Jaguars are 1-5 SU in their last six games against the NFC Conference.

Washington Commanders SU trends:

• The Commanders are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games played.

• The Commanders are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games against the AFC South Division.

• The Commanders are 2-7 SU in their last 9 Week 1 game played.

Jacksonville has lost 8 out of their last nine games straight up and is also 1-7 ATS in their last eight games so there was really a need to change the head coach, even if it’s the third time in the last three years that they have done so.

Pederson weaved his magic in Philadelphia and turned Carson Wentz into an MVP candidate before he tore his ACL. With his starting QB out, Pederson still led the Eagles to the Lombardi Trophy five years ago behind Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles.

That accomplishment appealed to the Jaguars who are now hoping he can do to Trevor Lawrence what he did to Wentz in Philly. Lawrence is, without doubt, the future for the Jaguars and they spent the offseason trying to upgrade the pieces around him. Whether they did enough or not remains to be seen but this should be a good test for the Jaguars.

Washington had a brutal schedule last year and they lost their starter early in the season. Despite that, they won seven games. However, the Commanders did not finish the season well as they won just once in their last five games played and went 2-2-1 ATS during that stretch.

Wentz is coming off a disappointing season in Indianapolis, his only season with the Colts. Indianapolis needed to win only one of their last two games to enter the postseason but despite being favored by at least 8 points in both games, they dropped both contests and missed out on the playoff bus. With a new team, Wentz has the opportunity to prove himself again. In Washington, he has a solid group of receivers led by Terry McLaughlin and rookie Jahan Dotson.

No question that Jacksonville’s lineup has improved. However, this is a team that is on a 17-game road losing streak. They need to prove their worth before you can trust them with your money, or at least mine. Washington is a legit playoff contender. With a veteran QB in Wentz, this veteran team has potential. The Commanders don’t get the same love as the Cowboys or Eagles but they are a solid team.

Prediction: Washington Commanders

Jaguars vs Washington ATS Prediction

The Jaguars are 0-4 ATS in their last four head-to-head meetings against the Commanders. Jacksonville is also 0-3 ATS in their last three games played in Washington.

Jacksonville Jaguars ATS betting trends:

• The Jaguars are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.

• The Jaguars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.

• The Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in September.

• The Jaguars are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games on grass.

• The Jaguars are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.

• The Jaguars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog.

• The Jaguars are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games against the NFC Conference.

Washington Commanders ATS betting trends:

• Commanders are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.

• Commanders are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Sunday games.

• Commanders are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.

• Commanders are 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 games as a home favorite.

• Commanders are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.

• Commanders are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in September.

The Jaguars have dropped their last 17 road games and have failed to cover the betting spread in at least their last four away from home. Jacksonville looks improved on both sides of the field after picking first overall in back-to-back NFL drafts. Trevor Lawrence and Travon Walker are the future of the franchise. This could be the Jaguars’ best chance to pick up a win until Week 4 when they meet the Lions. I expect them to play hard.

However, the Commanders looked decent with Taylor Heinicke last season. Now they have a more proven veteran in Carson Wentz. Wentz is more of a game manager but looking at this Washington unit, that’s probably what they need this year. Washington ranked 26th in red zone TD percentage last year with a 52% clip. They should improve with Wentz playing behind center. That could be the difference in this matchup.

The last meeting between these teams was way back in 2018 in Jacksonville with Washington winnings 16-13. Since October 2006, Washington won all of its four meetings while also covering the betting spread in all those four meetings.

Prediction: Commanders -2.5

Jaguars vs Washington Over/Under Prediction

The over is 2-1 in their last three head-to-head meetings in Washington. The under is 2-1 in the last three games played between these two teams.

Jacksonville Jaguars Over/Under betting trends:

• Under is 12-4 in the Jaguars’ last 16 games overall.

• Under is 5-2 in the Jaguars’ last 7 road games.

• Under is 6-2 in the Jaguars’ last 8 games as a road underdog.

• Under is 4-1 in the Jaguars’ last 5 games in September.

• Under is 13-3 in the Jaguars’ last 16 games as an underdog.

• Under is 5-1 in the Jaguars’ last 6 games on grass.

• Over is 4-2 in the Jaguars’ last 6 Week 1 game played.

Washington Commanders Over/Under betting trends:

• Under is 9-3 in the Commanders’ last 12 games overall.

• Under is 5-0 in the Commanders’ last 5 home games.

• Under is 18-6 in the Commanders’ last 24 games on grass.

• Under is 11-4 in the Commanders’ last 15 games as a favorite.

• Under is 7-3 in the Commanders’ last 10 games as a home favorite.

• Under is 6-1 in the Commanders’ last 7 games against the AFC Conference.

• Over is 8-3 in the Commanders’ last 11 games in September.

These teams have combined to score just 43.28 points per game in their last seven head-to-head meetings and only 39.0 points per game in their most recent three encounters.

The Jaguars have seen the total go over 44 points only once in their last 10 games played. Meanwhile, the Commanders have hit a total of at least 44 only five times in their last 10 games played. I expect the Jaguars’ offense to be better this season but their defense should also improve with Travon Walker. Meanwhile, the solid Washington defense allowed 21 or fewer points seven times in their last 10 games played.

These two weren’t high-scoring teams last season and shouldn’t be this year either. The Commanders’ have a very solid defensive unit and the Jaguars’ defense should show improvement after their offseason pickups. I like this game to go under the total.

Prediction: Under 44

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