Utah Jazz vs Oklahoma City Thunder 03/03/2023 NBA Odds and Prediction

The Utah Jazz head to the Chesapeake Energy Arena on Friday night for the first of two consecutive games against the OKC Thunder.

Utah is on a six-game road trip, their longest of the season, and they begin it with a pair of games in OKC. The Jazz are 31-32 SU on the season and they are 3rd in the Northwest Division team standings and 9th in the Western Conference ladder. Utah is heads to OKC after suffering a home loss against the lowly San Antonio Spurs in their last game.

OKC is also coming off a loss, with the Thunder dropping a 123-117 contest against the L.A. Lakers in their last game. The Thunder were playing for a play-in spot but with losses in their last five games, the Thunder are now down to the 13th position in the Western Conference team standings.

Utah Jazz

The Jazz continue to surprise this year. After losing both Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert during the offseason, this team was supposed to fight for the lottery. Instead, they are fighting to make the playoffs and currently hold a play-in tournament spot.

Utah is 3rd in the NBA in scoring at 117. points per game this season. They are shooting 46.9% from the field, 19th overall. Lauri Markannen leads the Jazz in scoring at 25.3 points per game while shooting 51.2% from the floor. They are also ranked 16th in three-point shooting at 35.9% from deep.

On defense, the Jazz are giving up 116.8 points per game while allowing their opponents to shoot 47.5% from the field and 35.7% from three-point distance. Utah also grabs 45.2 rebounds per game, the sixth-most in the entire league.

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder have lost five in a row and they have dropped outside the Play-in Tournament position at no. 13. However, with the playoff battle in the Western Conference very close, it’s not yet over for OKC but they will have to play better basketball to win games.

Shai Glgeous-Alexander leads the team in scoring at 31 points per game while shooting 50.7% from the floor. He is however listed as questionable for this game with an abdominal injury. SGA has missed the Thunder’s last four games played and all have ended in losses.

OKC is 12th in lowest adjusted defensive rating and they have done a good job in defending the paint area. However, OKC’s perimeter defense is what has been their struggle. Opponents shoot 35.9% from a three-point distance against them. The Thunder are pulling down 43.8 rebounds per game, the 14th most in the league this season.

Utah Jazz vs Oklahoma City Thunder 3/3/23 SU Prediction

The Jazz are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games played against the Thunder. Utah is also 4-1 SU in their last five games played in Oklahoma City.

Utah Jazz SU trends:

• The Jazz are 4-6 SU in their last 10 games played.
• The Jazz are 11-19 SU in their last 30 games played on the road.
• The Jazz are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games played in March.
• The Jazz are 7-13 SU in their last 20 road games against the Western Conference.
• The Jazz are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games played as betting favorites.

Oklahoma City Thunder SU trends:

• The Thunder are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games played.
• The Thunder are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games played at home.
• The Thunder are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games played against the Western Conference.
• The Thunder are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played against the Northwest Division.
• The Thunder are 10-10 SU in their last 20 home games against the Western Conference.

The Jazz look to bounce back from a home loss to the woeful San Antonio Spurs. Utah had the opportunity to move above the .500 mark last Tuesday but ended up losing 102-94. Now they open a six-game road trip with consecutive games against the OKC Thunder on Friday and Sunday nights.

The Jazz have committed at least 20 turnovers in three out of their last four games and have averaged 19.5 turnovers per game during that span.

Guard Collin Sexton has missed the team’s last three games with a left hamstring strain while Jordan Clarkson missed Tuesday’s game with a right thumb sprain. Clarkson was however in practice on Thursday night although it’s unclear if he will play on Friday night. Ochai Agbaji also suffered a contusion on his lower right leg last Tuesday but is expected to play against the Thunder.

OKC has been without All-Star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for the past four games. With SGA currently in the NBA’s health and safety protocol, he is expected to miss Friday’s game. Also absent for OKC will be Keinrich Williams who suffered a scapholunate ligament rupture on his left wrist during Tuesday’s game against the Kings. Williams has been declared out for the remainder of the season.

Although Williams’ numbers were modest at best at 8.0 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 2.0 assists in 53 games played, the Thunder were +4.0 points per 100 possession with him on the court. A the time of his injury, Williams led the NBA with 26 offensive fouls drawn.

Josh Giddey played a good game last Wednesday against the Los Angeles Lakers as he put up 17 points, 9 rebounds, and 11 assists in a losing effort. The Thunder were chasing a play-in tournament spot but after losing five in a row, their ambitions are now in danger.

Friday’s game will be the second between these two teams this year. Utah defeated OKC 120-119 in OT last February 23 in Salt Lake City with Lauri Markannen scoring 43 points.

<blockquote class=”twitter-tweet”><p lang=”en” dir=”ltr”>It was a battle of the young all-stars tonight in Utah 🍿⭐️<br><br>Lauri: 43 PTS, 15-28 FG, 10 REB <br>SGA: 39 PTS, 8 REB, 7 AST<br><br>The Jazz outlast the Thunder in OT 120, 119 <a href=”https://t.co/l7WoQfLQi2″>pic.twitter.com/l7WoQfLQi2</a></p>&mdash; NBA TV (@NBATV) <a href=”https://twitter.com/NBATV/status/1628980205845901312?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>February 24, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src=”https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js” charset=”utf-8″></script>

Without SGA, this is a very different Thunder team. Meanwhile, the Jazz will be very motivated to win on Friday. They are away from home for the next six games and they have to win the winnable games to be able to improve their standing in the West. Look for the Jazz to come out strong here. Prediction: Utah Jazz

Utah Jazz vs Oklahoma City Thunder 3/3/23 ATS Prediction

The Jazz are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games played against the Thunder. Utah is also 7-18-1 in their last 26 games played in Oklahoma City.

Utah Jazz ATS trends:

• The Jazz are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• The Jazz are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games
• The Jazz are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games versus a team with a winning home record.
• The Jazz are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Jazz are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Jazz are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight-up loss.
• The Jazz are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a losing straight-up record.
• The Jazz are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss.
• The Jazz are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Jazz are 12-26-1 ATS in their last 39 Friday games.

Oklahoma City Thunder ATS trends:

• The Thunder are 0-3-2 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• The Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
• The Thunder are 4-0-2 ATS in their last 6 Friday games.
• The Thunder are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games versus a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
• The Thunder are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a losing straight-up record.
• The Thunder are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS loss.
• The Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 day of rest
• The Thunder are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game
• The Thunder are 0-3-2 ATS in their last 5 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game
• The Thunder are 0-3-2 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game
• The Thunder are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight-up loss.

The Jazz are one of the top offensive teams in the NBA this season. Utah is ranked 6th in adjusted offensive rating and 3rd in scoring points. The Thunder could also be without their leading scorer Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and he will leave a scoring void that they cannot fill.

I expect the Thunder to be scrappy as usual. However, the longer this game goes, Utah will slowly pull away and pick up the win while also covering the betting spread. Prediction: Jazz

Utah Jazz vs Oklahoma City Thunder 3/3/23 Over/Under Prediction

The under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings between the Jazz and Thunder. The under is also 3-2 in their last 5 meetings in Oklahoma City.

Utah Jazz over/under trends:

• The under is 5-0 in the Jazz’s last 5 overall.
• The over is 8-2 in the Jazz’s last 10 road games.
• The under is 5-0 in the Jazz’s last 5 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 4-0 in the Jazz’s last 4 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 5-0 in the Jazz’s last 5 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 6-1 in the Jazz’s last 7 games playing on 2 days’ rest.
• The under is 16-5 in the Jazz’s last 21 versus a team with a losing straight-up record.
• The over is 6-2 in the Jazz’s last 8 games following an ATS loss.
• The over is 6-2 in the Jazz’s last 8 road games against a team with a winning home record.

Oklahoma City Thunder over/under trends:

• The over is 3-0-1 in the Thunder’s last games played 4 overall.
• The over is 20-9-1 in the Thunder’s last 30 home games.
• The over is 3-0-1 in the Thunder’s last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 3-0-1 in the Thunder’s last 4 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 3-0-1 in the Thunder’s last 4 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 3-0-1 in the Thunder’s last 4 games following a straight-up loss.
• The over is 4-1 in the Thunder’s last 5 games following an ATS loss.
• The over is 8-3 in the Thunder’s last 11 Friday games.
• The over is 10-4 in the Thunder’s last 14 home games versus a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
• The under is 10-1 in the Thunder’s last 11 against a team with a losing straight-up record.
• The under is 6-2-1 in the Thunder’s last 9 games playing on 1 day’s rest.

Both these teams rank in the Top 13 in adjusted tempo rating, with the Thunder rated at number 3. This means neither team is going to try and slow this game down. With plenty of youngsters on both ends, I expect both teams to play a fast game while looking to score in transition as often as they can. Fast possessions will lead to more shot attempts, and thus more points scored.

The Jazz are giving up the 21st most points per game this season and they have the 25th-lowest adjusted defensive rating. Because of that, the Thunder will be able to help the Jazz push the combined score over the betting total.

I expect an offensive shootout on Friday night between these two teams.

Prediction: Over 234.5

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