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The Utah Jazz look to take a commanding 3-1 lead in their first round playoff series against the Memphis Grizzlies on Monday night at the FedEx Forum.
Utah took the series lead by taking Game 3 and with that, reclaimed homecourt advantage from Memphis who shocked the league’s top seed in Game 1. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies will try to stay alive in the series by winning at home. Teams down 3-1 in a best of seven series only have a 5% chance of winning the series or 13 out of 260.
Utah Jazz
After losing the opening game, the Jazz have stormed back to win the last two games of the series to take a 2-1 lead. Utah’s three-point shooting which was absent in Game 1 resurfaced in Games 2 and 3 with the Jazz making 19 three-pointers in each game while shooting 46.6% from deep.
Donovan Mitchell led the Jazz with 29 points in Game 2 while former Grizzlies Mike Conley added 27 points on 7-10 three-point shooting. Rudy Gobert posted a double-double with 15 points and 14 rebounds while Bogdan Bogdanovic and Jordan Clarkson added 15 markers each and Royce O’Neale scoring 12.
Utah made seven more three-pointers than Memphis and doubled the Grizzlies’ free throw attempts, making 10 more foul shots. The Jazz also shot an impressive 49.4% from the field and 44.2% from deep.
Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies look to stay alive in the series after losing the last two games. Memphis took advantage of Donovan Mitchell’s absence in Game 1 to take the early lead but have been unable to sustain their momentum since Mitchell’s return. Ja Morant continues to impress in his first playoff series but he has not been able to carry the team on his own in Games 2 and 3.
Morant followed up his 47-point effort in Game 2 with 28 points but shot 10-23 from the field and 2-7 from the three-point area in 40 minutes of playing time. Dillon Brooks had a big night too with 27 points and Jonas Valanciunas had another double-double with 10 points and 13 rebounds but Kyle Anderson struggled on 5-13 shooting with 11 points but Grayson Allen scored 17 points off the bench,
Memphis once again controlled the paint, scoring 54 points in the paint against Utah’s 34. However, that 18-point edge was offset by the six more three-pointers that the Jazz hit in Game 2. The Grizzlies shot 85.4% from the foul line but took 13 fewer free throws than the Jazz and made ten fewer free throws.
Who Wins?
The Jazz are 4-1 SU in their last five games played. Utah is 3-1 in their last four games played on the road. The Grizzlies are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games played. Memphis is 5-1 SU in their last six games played at home, and 8-3 SU in their last 11 games played in May. Head to head, the Jazz are 8-1 SU in their last nine games played against the Grizzlies.
Please Note
Donovan Mitchell’s return has spelled the difference for the Jazz. With Spida out in Game 1, the Utah shooters made only 12 of 37 three-pointers or a 25.5% clip. With Mitchell back in Games 2 and 3, he has been able to help their shooters get good looks. As a result, the Jazz have shot 38-82 from deep or 46% in their last two games with Utah making 19 three-pointers in each game.
Both teams are healthy so this is going to be another good game. Memphis always gives a good fight and their fighting spirit is admirable. However, they simply don’t have enough firepower to match Utah and in a game where the Jazz just hoist three-pointers at will, the Grizzlies will get outgunned.
Prediction: Utah Jazz
Other Bets to Make
Utah is 4-1 ATS in their last five games played. The Jazz are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games played on the road, 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Western Conference, 4-1 ATS in their last five games as road favorites, 26-12 ATS in their last 38 games after an ATS win, and 5-2 in their last seven games when playing on one day rest. Head to head, the Jazz are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games played against the Grizzlies.
Memphis is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games played. The Grizzlies are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games played at home, 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against an opponent with a winning record, 1-4 ATS in their last five games as betting underdogs, 1-4 ATS in their last five conference quarterfinals games, and 0-6 ATS in their last six games when their opponents score more than 100 points in their previous game.
There’s no question that Memphis is the team of the future. Ja Morant has proved that he is more than just a highlight reel. Jackson has a bright future as well. Then you have Brooks and Anderson who are excellent complementary players. Throw in the big man Valanciunas and this is an exciting team to watch.
Jazz
-5.5 (-105)
Grizzlies
+5.5 (-115)
Odds from BetOnline as of 05/31/2021
There’s no question that Memphis is the team of the future. Ja Morant has proved that he is more than just a highlight reel. Jackson has a bright future as well. Then you have Brooks and Anderson who are excellent complementary players. Throw in the big man Valanciunas and this is an exciting team to watch.
However, the Grizzlies just seem to be outgunned right now. They are outsourcing the Jazz inside the paint but Utah’s three-pointers are starting to connect right now and Memphis cannot simply trade two-pointers with three-point baskets. Utah has a much deeper team and they have more firepower, especially from deep. I’ll ride Utah’s hot shooting here.
Prediction: Jazz -5.5
The total has gone over in seven out of the last 10 games played by the Jazz. Utah has seen the total go over in their last six games as playoff favorites. The over is also 6-1 in their last seven conference quarterfinals games, 5-1 in their last six games against an opponent with a winning SU record, and 6-1 in their last seven games after an ATS win.
The over is 4-1 in Memphis’ last five games played. The total has gone over in four out of their last five games against the Western Conference, 7-0 in their last seven playoff games as underdogs, 7-0 in their last seven conference quarterfinals games, 6-1 in their last seven games against an opponent with a winning SU record, and 4-1 in their last five games when playing on one-day rest.
Head to head, the total has gone over in seven out of the last eight meetings between these two teams.
Over
224.5 (-115)
Under
224.5 (-105)
Odds from BetOnline as of 05/31/2021
These two teams have combined to score a least 220 points in each game in the series with the last two going over 230 total points. The Jazz led the league in three-pointers made per game this season at 16.7 and would have eclipsed the record for total threes made in a year had this campaign not been shortened to 72 games. Utah made 19 three-pointers each in Games 3 and 4 and with Utah finding their mark from deep, this is going to be another high-scoring affair. These teams have hit the over in the last three games of this series. Make it four in a row.
Prediction: Over 224.5
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