Utah Jazz vs Miami Heat 03/13/2023 NBA Odds and Prediction

The Utah Jazz head to South Beach to take on the Miami Heat to close out a six-game road trip.

Utah is still in the playoff hunt despite their recent struggles. The Jazz are 33-35 on the season, tied with the Orlando Magic and Los Angeles Lakers for the 9th to 11th spot. Currently, they are the 9th seed due to the tiebreakers but with the 6th seeded Golden State Warriors just two games up, the Jazz are looking at outright entry to the postseason.

Miami is having an underwhelming season due to various injuries. Although they are coming off a disappointing loss to the Orlando Magic last Saturday, the Heat got Kyle Lowry back for the first time since Feb. 2 on Saturday night. Miami has dropped 8 out of their last 12 games played and they are now 7th in the East and 3.5 games off the 6th-seeded New York Knicks in the East standings.

Utah Jazz

Despite being in a rebuilding year, the Utah Jazz are in the playoff hunt. The Jazz are currency tied with the Lakers and Thunder with a 33-35 record for the 9th-11th spot in the West. Utah is also just 2 games off the 6th seeded Golden State Warriors so they can still move up.

The Jazz won at Charlotte last Saturday 119-111 behind a season-high 37 points from Talen Horton-Tucker who also had 8 rebounds and 10 assists to lead the Jazz. Kelly Olynyk and Walker Kessler each had 17 points while Lauri Markkanen added a double-double with 13 points and 13 rebounds.

Utah is scoring 117.3 points per game while also grabbing 45.3 rebounds per contest. The Jazz are also averaging 25.6 assists per game this season.

Miami Heat

Miami is struggling at the wrong time as they have lost four out of their last seven games played and 8 out of their last dozen overall. Last weekend, the Heat forced overtime against the lowly Orlando Magic but ran out of gas during the extra session and ended up losing the game 124-116.

In that game, the Heat were outrebounded 54-35. Jimmy Butler had a season-bet 38 points and he sent the game to overtime while scoring 15 in the fourth period. Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro each had 14 points for the Heat in that game.

Miami is putting up only 108.6 points per game this season. They are grabbing 41.0 rebounds per game and issuing 23.3 assists per contest.

Jazz vs Heat SU Prediction

The Jazz are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games played against the Heat. Utah is also 0-5 SU in their last 5 games played in Miami.

Utah Jazz SU trends:

• The Jazz are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games played.
• The Jazz are 13-22 SU in 35 road games played this season.
• The Jazz are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played against the Southeast Division.
• The Jazz are 12-13 ATS in 25 games played against the Eastern Conference.

Miami Heat trends:

• The Heat are 4-8 SU in their last 12 games played.
• The Heat are 22-13 SU in their last 35 games played at home.
• The Heat are 17-10 SU in their last 27 games played against the Western Conference.
• The Heat are 9-3 SU in their last 12 home games against the Western Conference.
• The Heat are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games played on a Monday.

The Heat hope that Kyle Lowry’s return will right the ship in Miami. They have lost four out of their last 7 games played including last Saturday when they were beaten in overtime by the lowly Orlando Magic.

In that game, Lowry made his first appearance since February 2 after suffering a knee injury. He played in 36 minutes in that game and scored 12 points with 4 assists, and 2 steals while making 4-8 shots, including 3-6 from deep. It was Lowry’s first game off the bench in 10 years but you could not blame the Heat for being cautious.

According to head coach Erik Spoelstra, Lowry does not have minute restrictions but they are mindful about his minutes, especially with the postseason drawing near. Miami is in 7th place and is 2.5 games off the 5th and 6th seeds so they need to start winning their remaining games to catch up.

Meanwhile, the Jazz are rebuilding out West and have been accumulating draft picks since Danny Ainge arrived in Salt Lake City. After trading Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, and Mike Conley, the Jazz has amassed 8 first-round picks, 3 pick swaps, and 13 players.

Right now, the team is still in rebuilding mode but with the likes of Lauri Markkanen and Darius Garland. Markkanen has been so terrific this season that he was named to the West All-Star team for the first time in his career. Markkanen leads the Jazz in scoring at 25.4 points per game this season.

Talen Horton-Tucker is coming off a 37-point game during a 119-111 win over the Charlotte Hornets. Walker Kessler leads the team with 2.3 blocks per game while also scoring 8.5 points and grabbing 8.1 rebounds per game this season.

This will be the first meeting between these two teams since they played on New Year’s Eve in Salt Lake City. Miami won that game 126-123 on a buzzer-beating three-pointer from Tyler Herro. Herro had 29 points and 9 rebounds while Victor Oladipo had 23. Bam Adebayo led the Heat in that game with 32 points.

Jazz vs Heat ATS Prediction

The Jazz are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games played against the Heat. Utah is also 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games played in Miami.

Utah Jazz ATS trends:

• The Jazz are 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
• The Jazz are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.
• The Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.
• The Jazz are 2-0-2 ATS in their last 4 games against a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The Jazz are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The Jazz are 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Jazz are 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win.
• The Jazz are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up win.
• The Jazz are 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Jazz are 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Jazz are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played against the Eastern Conference.
• The Jazz are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 Monday games.

Miami Heat ATS trends:

• The Heat are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
• The Heat are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games.
• The Heat are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 games versus a team with a losing straight-up record.
• The Heat are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Heat are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Heat are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Heat are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Heat are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games versus a team with a losing road record.
• The Heat are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up loss of more than 10 points.
• The Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

The Jazz are at the end of a six-game road trip where they are 2-3, although their two wins have come in their previous two games played. But after back-to-back good games last Thursday and Saturday, it’s hard for me to imagine the Jazz playing better and beating the Heat in Miami on Monday.

Meanwhile, the Heat should look better in Lowry’s second game back as the team has missed his veteran presence for a long time. I like the Heat to right the ship on Monday night as the playoff continues to draw nearer. Miami should be able to pull off this win

It’s worth noting however that the Jazz are 20-15 ATS when playing on the road this season despite being just 13-22 SU away from home this year. I won’t blame you if you took the Jazz but I will go with the Heat here.

Prediction: Miami Heat

Jazz vs Heat Over/Under Prediction

The over is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these two teams. The over is also 2-1 in their last 3 meetings in Miami.

Utah Jazz over/under trends:

• The over is 4-0-1 in the Jazz’s last 5 overall.
• The over is 20-7-1 in the Jazz’s last 28 road games.
• The over is 4-0-1 in the Jazz’s last 5 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 4-0-1 in the Jazz’s last 5 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 4-0-1 in the Jazz’s last 5 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 3-0-1 in the Jazz’s last 4 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 3-0-1 in the Jazz’s last 4 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The over is 4-0 in the Jazz’s last 4 games against a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The over is 8-2-1 in the Jazz’s last 11 road games versus a team with a winning home record.
• The over is 6-1 in the Jazz’s last 7 games played in March.

Miami Heat over/under trends:

• The over is 4-2 in the Heat’s last 6 games played.
• The over is 5-0 in the Heat’s last five Monday home games.
• The over is 5-0 in the Heat’s last 5 games played against the Northwest Division
• The over is 40-19 in the Heat’s last 59 games following a straight-up loss of more than 10 points.
• The over is 4-1 in the Heat’s last 5 games against a team with a losing straight-up record.
• The over is 7-5 in the Heat’s last 12 home games against the Western Conference.
• The under is 5-2 in the Heat’s last 7 home games versus a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
• The under is 7-3 in the Heat’s last 10 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.

Miami is a tough defensive team that is ranked last in points per game in the NBA this season. The Heat are second in scoring defense at only 109.1 points per game allowed this season.

On the other hand, the Jazz are one of the highest-scoring teams in the NBA this year at no. 5 in points per game and 12th in pace. So while the Heat wants to keep this slow and low-scoring, the Jazz want a track meet.

This clash of styles could go either way. However, I think the Heat, as the superior team here and should be able to impose their style of play. I think this will turn into a low-scoring affair that favors the Heat.

Prediction: Under 224

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