The Kansas City Chiefs travel to New England to face the Patriots in an AFC encounter on Sunday, 10/14/18.
The Chiefs kept their perfect record with a victory over the Jaguars the last time out. Now at 5-0, red hot Kansas City faces its toughest test of the season when they take on Tom Brady and his Patriots who are still struggling to find their Super Bowl form on the road.
A lot of people thought that the Jacksonville Jaguars would be the team that ends the smoking start by Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs. And although Mahomes was forced to throw two interceptions, he still finished with over 300 yards against arguably the best pass defense in the league. More importantly, the Chiefs led from start to finish and beat the Jaguars 30-14 to remain undefeated this season.
Kareem Hunt had 87 rushing yards on 22 carries with one touchdown last week. Hunt has rushed for a total of 376 yards this season good for 4th in the league and he has also scored 4 rushing touchdowns. Travis Kelce has 407 receiving yards this season with 3 touchdowns.
Kansas City Chiefs vs New England Patriots 10/14/18
Moneyline Odds: Chiefs +155, Patriots -175
Odds from Sportsbetting.ag as of 10/11/18
While the Chiefs have looked like Super Bowl contenders early in the season, the Patriots have looked mediocre through five games. New England entered the season as favorites to win the Super Bowl but after five games, they only have a 3-2 record to boast.
For the season, Brady has completed 67.6% of his passes for a total of 1,259 yards with 12 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. Sony Michel has solidified his spot as the top running back in the New England lineup with a total of 294 rushing yards with two touchdowns this season. Rob Gronkowski looked his healthiest of the season against the Colts last week by catching a total of 77 yards, his most this year.
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in their last five games and 4-1 SU in their last 5 games on the road. This season, the Chiefs are perfect on the road at 3-0 both SU and ATS. And yes, don’t forget that last season, the Chiefs went to New England in Week 1 to humble the Patriots, 42-27.
On the other hand, New England is 16-4 SU in their last 20 games and 10-1 SU in their last 11 games at home. Against Kansas City, they are 6-3 SU in their last 9 head to head encounters and 6-1 SU in their last 7 games against the Chiefs in New England. But because the Patriots are only 3-2 this season, some bettors may already be starting to doubt them, even with the trends.
But remember that the Pats’ two losses this season came on the road. At home, they still look every bit the Super Bowl favorites they were before the season began.The Patriots are 3-0 SU and ATS at home this season with an average winning margin of 17.6. So while the Chiefs have looked like real threats to the Patriots reign in the AFC, you can’t just throw away all that history and the fact that New England is still elite, at least at home.
We’re picking the New England Patriots to beat the Kansas City Chiefs on 10/14/18.
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. They are also 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games against the Patriots. However, New England is a solid 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games at home. The Patriots are also 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a TNF game and 14-6 ATS in their last 20 SNF games.
Kansas City Chiefs vs New England Patriots 10/14/18
Spread Odds: Chiefs +3.5 (-115), Patriots -3.5 (-105)
Odds from Sportsbetting.ag as of 10/11/18
Like the oddsmakers, I see this as a close contest and possibly a back and forth affair. But in the end, I think the Patriots have the experience to make a couple of stops in the end game to deal the Chiefs their first loss of the season. It’s going to be close but it’s going to be more than a field goal. The Pats should be able to cover.
Prediction: Patriots -3.5
The over is 4-1 in Kansas City’s last five games on the road and the over is also 6-2 in their last 8 road games against the New England Patriots. Kansas City’s games this year have an average combined score of 60.8 points while New England is coming off a game against Indianapolis where the combined score was 62. The Patriots have scored 38 points in each of their last two games.
On defense, Kansas City is allowing its opponents to score 25.8 points against them. On the other hand, New England has given up at least 20 points in 4 out of their 5 games this season.
Kansas City Chiefs vs New England Patriots 10/14/18
Over/Under Odds: Over 59 -115, Under 59 -105
Odds from Sportsbetting.ag as of 10/11/18
The score total of 59 for this game is the highest to date in the 2018 NFL season, topping the 57 for the Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers game last week. But while that may look too high at first glance, that may not be the case. The Chiefs have a quick scoring offense while the Patriots’ offense looks like it’s starting to come together as of late. I like the over here.
Prediction: Over 59
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