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The L.A. Clippers and Denver Nuggets collide in an all-important Game 3 on Monday night. The Clippers opened the series with a masterful 23-point blowout of the 3rd seed in the West but Denver tied the series with a wire-to-wire victory in Game 2. However, the Nuggets could be in trouble here because All-Star big man Nikola Jokic is nursing a sprained right wrist which could force him to sit out this game. Jokic has been listed as questionable and if he is a no-go for Denver, it’s going to be a long night for them.
L.A. Clippers
The L.A. Clippers look to take control of the series once again. The Clippers won Game 1 by 23 points but instead of carrying the momentum for the next game, they gave up 44 points in the first quarter of Game 2 and never recovered. L.A. was outscored 25-26 by Denver’s duo of Murray and Jokic in the first quarter.
Paul George led the Clippers with 22 points in Game 2 but he shot just 36% from the field. Ivica Zubac scored 15 points and grabbed nine rebounds while Kawhi Leonard’s playoff scoring streak was finally snapped as he put up just 13 points. The Klaw had scored at least 20 points in 27 out of his last 28 playoff games played. Lou Williams also scored only 13 points in the loss.
The Clippers were 9-32 from behind the three-point arc and shot 40% from the field but they spent the final three quarters catching up after giving up 44 points in the first period. Leonard shot just 4-17 from the field in a rare poor effort while Marcus Morris shot just 3-9 while scoring 11 points. The Clippers are averaging 122.6 points per game on 49.8% field goal shooting but were shut down in Game 2.
Denver Nuggets
The Denver Nuggets bounced back from a Game 1 blowout loss and beat the Clippers in Game 2 110-101. Denver shut down the vaunted Clippers offense and held the team to 101 points, their lowest output in the postseason, and also in Orlando. The Nuggets led by 19 at the end of one and dealt the Clippers their third biggest halftime deficit of the season at 16 points.
Jamal Murray led the Nuggets in their Game 2 victory. The former Kentucky product scored 27 points on 10-21 shooting with six assists. Nikola Jokic had a huge double-double with 26 points and 18 rebounds. The Joker also contributed four assists in the win. Meanwhile, veteran Paul Millsap and guard Gary Harris each scored 13 points.
The Nuggets shot 45% from the field and 15-40 from deep. Denver set the tone of Game 2 by exploding for 44 points in the first quarter and went on to lead by as much as 23 points in the game, before holding on for the win. The team is scoring an average of 108.6 points per game in the playoffs
Who Wins?
The Clippers are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played. L.A. is 3-1 SU in their last four games played on the road, and 9-3 SU in their last 12 games played against the Western Conference. The Nuggets are 5-5 SU in their last 10 games played. Denver is 2-4 SU in their last six games played on the road, and 1-6 SU in their last seven games played against the Pacific Division. Head to head, the Nuggets are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played against the Clippers. However, L.A. has won three out of their last four head to head meetings.
The Clippers won Game 1 like a walk in the park. But they found themselves in a fight in Game 2. Jamal Murray continues his splendid post-season and it’s not a surprise why he continues to lead the team in scoring. But when we look at Game 2, the x-factor was Nikola Jokic who made four three-pointers to spark Denver.
The Joker though is a doubtful starter in Game 3 with a sprained right wrist. And even if he decides to play through the injury, he may be compromised given the injury is on his shooting hand. If Jokic doesn’t play, Mason Plumlee should start at center while rookie Bol Bol will come off the bench. However, none of the two can match Jokic’s output.
Despite losing game 2, the Clippers remain as the better team between the two and they still have their two all-stars in Leonard and PG13. George may be struggling but we saw what he can do after struggling to start the Dallas series. I like the Clippers to bounce back with a win here. The team is too good and they are built for the playoffs. I’ll eat the chalk and go with the favorites.
Prediction: L.A. Clippers -420
Other Bets To Make
The Clippers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games played. L.A. is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games played on the road. The Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games played. Denver is 3-3 ATS in their last six games played on the road. Head to head, the Clippers are 3-1 ATS in their last four games played against the Nuggets.
Clippers
-9 (-105)
Nuggets
+9 (-115)
Odds from BetOnline as of 09/06/2020
Denver is 12-1 ATS in their last 13 Monday games. The Nuggets are also 4-1 ATS in their last five games as the betting underdogs. Meanwhile, the Clippers are 4-10 in their last 14 road games against the Nuggets. The Clippers have outscored the Nuggets by an average of nine points per game in their last three assignments. However, Paul George continues to struggle in the playoffs and Denver is coming off one of their best defensive efforts this season. I think the Clippers will win this game but I don’t think they will blow out the Nuggets here, with or without Jokic.
Prediction: Nuggets +9
The under is 41-38-1 in the Clippers’ 80 total games played this season. The total has gone over in three out of their last four road assignments. L.A. has seen the total go under in four out of their last six games against the Northwest Division. The total has gone over in 13 out of the last 17 games played by the Nuggets. The over is 4-1 in Denver’s last five games played on a Monday.
Over
-219 (-110)
Under
219 (-110)
Odds from BetOnline as of 09/06/2020
The Nuggets hit the over in 13 of their first 14 games in the Orlando bubble but have played to the under in their last three. These teams have combined to score an average of 225.3 points per game in their last 10 meetings and 221.0 points per game in their last three head to head meetings. The key here should be Jokic’s absence if he ends up not playing in this game. Without Jokic, Denver’s defense will suffer and without the Joker, this game will be played at a faster pace, leading to more points.
Prediction: Over 219
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