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The Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat meet again in Game 4 of the 2020 NBA Finals at the AdventHealth Arena in Florida.
The Lakers failed to take an insurmountable 3-0 lead on Sunday as they fell to the Heat in Game 3 of the series. The Heat played its second game without Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic but were able to upset the double-digit point favorite Lakers behind Jimmy Butler’s historic performance. With momentum temporarily moving to their side, the Heat hope Bam Adebayo can return as they try to even the series on Tuesday evening. Miami heads to Game 3 as +7.5 underdogs to the Lakers who are also -310 favorites at the Moneyline.
Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles had a chance to take a 3-0 lead on Sunday. Miami played without Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic but the Lakers came out flat. The Purple and Gold committed 10 first-quarter turnovers and allowed the Heat to race to an early 13-point lead. The Lakers came back each time Miami tried to pull away but in the end, the Heat hit the big shots that matter to win the game and cut Los Angeles’ lead to 2-1.
LeBron James led the Lakers with 25 points, 10 rebounds, and 8 assists. He shot 9-16 from the floor and 6-9 from the foul line. But James committed 8 total turnovers and scored only two points in the final 8 minutes of the game. Anthony Davis added 15 points but he was limited to only nine field-goal attempts in the game as he battled foul trouble. The Lakers had good games from reserves Kyle Kuzma and Markieff Morris who each scored 19 points for the Los Angeles cause. Morris made five triples while Kuzma sank four three-pointers for the Lakers.
Miami Heat
The Miami Heat proved their doubters wrong in Game 3. After the Lakers’ odds to win the series surged to -5000, the Heat leaned on a historic game by Jimmy Butler to win Game 3 115-104 and cut the Lakers series lead to 2-1. The Heat won the game despite playing without two starters for the second straight games. Butler played 45 minutes and delivered the 3rd 40-point triple-double in the history of the NBA Finals. He finished with 40 points, 11 rebounds, and 13 assists.
Butler got the much-needed support from reserve Kelly Olynyk who finished with 17 points. Olynyk has scored 41 points in the last two games, the most by a reserve in two straight finals games since Jason Terry in 2011. Tyler Herro also had a big game with 17 points while Duncan Robinson added 13 markers for the Heat. Jae Crowder had another solid game with 12 points and 8 rebounds. Miami outscored Los Angeles 52-34 in points in the paint and forced them to 20 turnovers while only committing 13 of their own. The Heat shot 51.3% from the floor and 91% from the foul line in Game 3.
Who Wins?
The Lakers are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games played. Los Angeles is 5-2 SU in their last seven games played on the road. The Heat are 13-5 SU in their last 18 games played. Miami is 1-4 SU in their last five games played against the Western Conference. Head to head, the Lakers are 6-1 SU in their last seven games played against the Heat and 8-2 SU in their last 10 games as the odds on favorite.
The Heat have some good news as Bam Adebayo has been upgraded to questionable on Monday. That means that it will be up to the Heat medical staff to allow him to play or not. Dragic is still out but if they get Adebayo back, that’s going to be a big plus for the Heat which need height against the Lakers’ mighty frontline.
Los Angeles is expected to come out strong here. There’s a huge difference between leading 3-1 and being tied at two apiece. Anthony Davis took only nine shots in Game 3 as he was hounded by foul trouble. LeBron James needs to take care of the ball better and he talked about this after Game 2.
I expect the Lakers to make the necessary adjustments in Game 4. They will go back to their strengths here. Davis should get his shots while James will take it hard to the basket just like in Game 2. The Lakers have not lost back to back playoff games this season and are 3-0 after a playoff loss. Los Angeles takes Game 4 and moves closer to winning their 17th world title.
Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers
Other Bets to Make
The Lakers are 5-4-1 ATS in their last 10 games played. Los Angeles is 1-5 ATS in their last six games played against the Eastern Conference, and also 1-5 ATS in their last six games against the Southeast Division. The Heat are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games played. Miami is 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven October games. Head to head, the Heat are 3-1 ATS in their last four games played against the Lakers.
Lakers
-7.5 (-107)
Heat
+7.5 (-113)
Odds from BetOnline as of 10/06/2020
The Lakers committed 20 turnovers in Game 3, including 10 in the first quarter. Because they coughed up the ball a lot of time, they took only 79 field goal attempts. Anthony Davis got into foul trouble and was limited to nine shots only while LeBron James had 8 turnovers. You bet these two stars will be ready for this important Game 4. With Davis playing better and James asserting his might, the Lakers should cover this single-digit spread. Los Angeles is 3-0 after losing a playoff game this season and they have won those games by an average margin of 12 points per game.
Prediction: Lakers -7.5
The total has gone over in four out of the last six games played by the Lakers. The under is 5-2 in Los Angeles’ last seven games in October. The total has gone over in five out of the last seven games played by the Heat. The over is also 11-5 in Miami’s last 16 games against the Pacific Division. Head to head, the total has gone under in six out of the last 10 meetings between these two teams.
Over
218.5 (-115)
Under
218.5 (-105)
Odds from BetOnline as of 10/06/2020
Game 3 went under the 219.5 total by a half a point and that happened with Anthony Davis taking just nine shots and the Lakers shooting only 43% from the field. The Lakers averaged 120 points per game in the first two games of the series and with the Heat threatening them, I expect them to bounce back well here. If Bam Adebayo does return, that’s going to help the total hit the over even more. But even without him, I expect Miami’s role players to fill in the scoring void. I like this to be a high-scoring contest.
Prediction: Over 218.5
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