Los Angeles Lakers vs San Antonio Spurs 03/07/2022 NBA Odds and Prediction

The Los Angeles Lakers hit the road and travel to San Antonio to take on the Spurs at the AT&T Center on Monday night.

Los Angeles is fresh off an upset win over the Golden State Warriors last Saturday in a game where LeBron James scored 56 points. Los Angeles is 28-35 SU on the season and they are in 9th place in the Western Conference team standings. Although the Lakers are unlikely to catch up with the 6th seeded Nuggets, Los Angeles needs to hold on to 9th place as the Pelicans are just one game behind them in 10th place and the 11th seed Blazers just three off them.

San Antonio meanwhile is 24-40 SU on the season and in 12th place in the Western Conference ladder. The Spurs are 3.5 games behind the 10th seeded Pelicans and the final play-in tournament spot. San Antonio is just 4-6 SU in their last 10 games played and they head to this home game with four consecutive losses. In their most recent game last Saturday, the Charlotte Hornets beat the Spurs 123-117, denying Spurs HC Gregg Popovich a chance to tie the NBA record for most wins by a head coach.

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers snapped their four-game losing streak last Sunday with a 124-116 win over the Golden State Warriors as +5.5 betting underdogs. LeBron James scored his Lakers career-high with 56 points in 19-31 shooting, including 6-11 from deep. Russell Westbrook added 20 points on 9-17 shooting while Camelo Anthony added 14 off the bench, including a clutch three-pointer as the Warriors were threatening to come back.

Los Angeles is 12th in the NBA in scoring at 110.6 points per game. They are 15th in rebounding at 44.5 boards grabbed per contest and are 17th in passing at 24.0 assists per game. Los Angeles is 25th overall in scoring defense at 112.7 points per game allowed.

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs suffered a four straight setback last Saturday when they were beaten by the Charlotte Hornets 123-117. Dejounte Murray barely missed a triple-double with 25 points, 9 rebounds, and 10 assists while Keldon Johnson exploded for 33 points with 8 rebounds. Devin Vassell added 14 points and Jakob Poeltl added 11 points for the Spurs in a losing effort.

San Antonio ranks 7th in the league in scoring at 112.8 points per game this season. They are the 10th best rebounding team in the NBA at 45.3 boards grabbed per contest and are the top passing team in the league at 28.1 assists per game. The Spurs are 26th in scoring defense at 113.0 points per game conceded this season.

Who Wins?

The Lakers are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games played. Los Angeles is 0-7 SU in their last seven road games. The Spurs are 1-4 SU in their last five games played. San Antonio is 2-6 SU in their last eight games played at home.

Head to head, the Lakers ae 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played against the Spurs. Los Angeles is also 5-0 SU in their last five games played in San Antonio.

A lot will ride on the availability of James and Murray who have been the top players for their respective squads. Assuming both don’t play, then it’s going to be a close contest where the Spurs’ better consistency and teamwork will lead them to victory. However, if LeBron plays, and regardless of Muray suits up or not, the Lakers should be the smart pick here at plus money. However, until that is certain, the Spurs have played better as a team and should get the win over the Lakers who are still on Cloud 9 after Saturday’s big win.

Prediction: Wait out for LeBron’s status. If he’s out, go with the Spurs

Other Bets to Make

The Lakers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games played. Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the Western Conference, 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 road games against an opponent with a winning home record, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against an opponent with a losing straight up record, 10-24 ATS in their last 34 games after an ATS win, 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing 100 or more points in their previous game, and 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games when their opponent allows 100 or more points in their previous game.

The Spurs are 2-3 ATS in their last five games played. San Antonio is 2-6 ATS in their last eight games played at home, 2-6 ATS in their last eight games played in March, 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 100 points in their previous game, and 0-4 ATS in their last four Monday games. However, the Spurs are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as betting favorites and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games against an opponent with a losing record.

These teams have played twice this season, both at Staples Center. The Lakers won the first meeting by 8 points last November 14th but the Spurs bounced back and upset the Lakers 28 points last December 23. If you ask me, the Lakers are a different team right now than they were last November 14th. When the season was still starting, they were a hungry team looking to move up the standings. Right now, they look lost, tired, and don’t know what to do without LeBron James.

San Antonio has the best adjusted efficiency rating among teams that are not occupying a Top 6 spot in both conferences. They also shoot the ball well at 46% which should be of help against a Lakers defense that is ranked 18th in opponents FG%. The Spurs aren’t a very good defensive team but the thing is, the Lakers’ offense hasn’t been consistent and they struggle to shoot from deep.

Assuming LeBron doesn’t play, it’s an easy pick to make: San Antonio will win the game and cover the spread, with or without Dejounte Murray.

Prediction: Spurs -2.5

The total has gone over in five out of the last six games played by the Lakers. The over is 35-28 in Los Angeles’ 63 games played this season. The over is also 5-1 in their last six games as road underdogs, 7-2 in their last nine games overall as betting underdogs, 5-2 in their last seven road games played on a Monday, and 3-1-1 in their last five road games after an SU and ATS win.

The total has gone over in six out of the Spurs’ last seven games as betting favorites. The over is 7-0 in their last nine Monday games, 4-1 in their last five games after an ATS loss, 4-1 in their last five games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game, 12-3-1 in their last 16 games against an opponent with a losing straight up record, 8-3 in their last 11 games after a straight up loss, 10-4 in their last 14 games as home favorites, and 23-11 in their last 34 home games.

At 100.2 possessions per 48 minutes, the Spurs play the league’s 4th fastest pace. San Antonio is also the better rebounding team than Los Angeles so that should ensure that they get the possessions that lead to points. Both these teams are in the bottom half of the league in opponents FG%. The Lakers are also 25th in scoring defense while the Spurs are right behind them at 26th.

These teams have combined to score an average of 238 points in their last three head-to-head meetings, including 248 in their most recent head-to-head encounter last December 23rd. The Lakers have allowed 116 or more points thrice in their last four games while the Spurs have conceded 118 or more points four times in their last five games.

These teams aren’t really high-scoring teams this season but given how poorly they have played defense, they should be able to put up more points than the usual. With their defense unable to give both teams a win, look for them to try and outscore each other.

Prediction: Over 232.5

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