Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers 09/20/2021 NFL Odds, Preview, and Prediction

The Detroit Lions will travel to Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers in Week 2 of the 2021 NFL season.

Both teams lost their opening week assignments with the predicted cellar-dwelling Lions falling to the 49ers 41-33 in a game that was more lopsided than what the final score indicated and the Packers getting mauled by the New Orleans Saints 38-3 in what was arguably the worst performance in Aaron Rodgers’ remarkable career.

Green Bay has dominated this matchup in recent memory with the Packers having a 17-3 SU and 12-8 ATS record against the Lions in their last 20 head-to-head meetings. In their last meeting played on December 13, 2020, in Detroit, the Packers won 31-24 as nine-point spread favorites.

Detroit Lions

The Jared Goff era is off to a terrible start for the Lions who trailed their opening game 31-10 at the half and 38-10 early in the third quarter before the 49ers took their foot off the gas pedal and allowed the Lions to claw back and finish with a decent looking score and a backdoor cover for bettors who backed them up at +9.5 points.

Looking at numbers, Goff produced 338 passing yards with three touchdowns and one interception but most of it came when the game was already well out of reach. Detroit’s defense was atrocious as it allowed 311 passing yards and 131 rushing yards. They however defended well on third downs, forcing San Francisco to go 3-9 in that department.

T.J. Hockenson had a big game for the Lions last week as he finished with 8 catches on 11 targets for 97 yards including a touchdown grab. Jamal Williams rushed for 54 yards on nine carries and scored on one rushing touchdown against the 49ers.

Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers’ last dance didn’t start on the right foot as the Packers suffered their worst defeat with Rodgers at 38-3 against the New Orleans Saints. Rodgers looked like a shell of the player who won 2020 MVP honors as he completed only 15 of 28 passes for 133 yards with two interceptions and zero scores.

The Green Bay defense conceded 322 total yards including 171 yards on the ground to the Saints. They allowed New Orleans to convert half of their 10 third down opportunities and both of their fourth-down attempts. The game venue was changed after Hurricane Ida struck New Orleans and the warm weather did not help the Packers’ game.

Davante Adams was involved in a lot of drama along with Rodgers during the offseason and like Rodgers, he was off to a slow start with only five catches for 56 yards last week. A.J. Dillon led the Packers in rushing but he only had 19 rushing yards on four carries.

Who Wins?

Detroit is 0-5 SU in their last five games played. The Lions are 4-10 SU in their last 14 games played on the road. Green Bay is 7-2 SU in their last nine games played. The Packers are 14-2 SU in their last 16 home games and 17-3 SU in their last 20 home games against the Lions.

The Lions allowed a league-worst 419.8 yards per game last season and gave up 442 yards against the 49ers during their opening game of the season. Jared Goff’s inconsistent play is well-documented and being in a team that is thin if not bare in the receiver position, there’s so much the offense can do to help their defense.

Running backs D’Andre Swift and Jamal Williams are pretty banged up right now so early in the season while wideout Tyrell Williams has already been ruled out for this game.

Everything looks scripted for Green Bay to bounce back from a humiliating opening game defeat to the Saints. Rodgers told everybody not to panic last week and despite a poor showing, I trust that what happened against New Orleans was just the exception, not the rule. Give me the Packers and Rodgers to bounce back with a strong win.

Prediction: Green Bay Packers

Other Bets to Make

The Lions are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 week 2 games. Detroit is 13-27 in their last 40 games when allowing more than 30 points in their previous game, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as road underdogs, 2-6 ATS in their last eight games after an ATS win, and 3-14 in their last 17 games when allowing more than 350 passing yards in their previous game.

The Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games when accumulating 250 or fewer yards in their previous game, 5-0 ATS in their last five games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game, 8-1 ATS in their last nine games after a straight-up loss, 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games after an ATS, and 6-2-1 in their last nine Week 2 games.

Head to head, the home team is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these two teams.

For me, there is no question who wins this game. The only issue here is whether the Packers will be able to cover the huge betting spread. There is no doubt that Green Bay has the offense to make Detroit’s defense look even worse. Given Detroit’s injuries, the Packers will surely pounce on them.

But after what we saw last weekend, it’s hard to trust Green Bay in covering a double-digit spread right now. Laying a dozen points in a division rivalry game looks too much right now. Any number below double-digits would be fine with me but 12 may be too much to give away right now, even to the Lions.

Prediction: Lions +12

The total has gone over in eight out of the last 11 games played by the Lions. The over is 5-1 in their last six games against the NFC North, 5-1 in their last six September games, 7-1 in their last eight games after a straight up defeat, 7-2 in their last nine games as betting underdogs, and 7-2 in their last nine games against an opponent with a losing road record.

The total has gone over in four out of the last five games played by the Packers. The over is 5-1 in their last six against the NFC North, 4-1 in their last five games played on grass, 11-5 in their last 16 week 2 games, 5-2 in their last seven games when allowing more than 30 points in their previous game, and 35-17 in their last 52 September games.

The Packers were the no. 1 ranked scoring team in the league last season with an average of 31.8 points per game scored. Sure, that same offense scored only three points last week. But I don’t blame the Packers at all, especially since that was just the first game of the season. On the contrary, I think that poor effort will fire up Rodgers and the offense to score more points,

Detroit allowed 32.4 points per game last season and they conceded 41 points to the 49ers last week. There are several questions surrounding the Green Bay Packers right now but between that what we know about how bad the Lions can be, I’ll go with Rodgers and the Packers to bounce back with a big win where points will be aplenty.

Prediction: Over 49

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