Detroit Lions vs New England Patriots 10/09/2022 Odds and Prediction

The Detroit Lions head to the Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots on Sunday.

Detroit is 1-3 SU and 0-1 SU in the NFC North to start the season. The Lions lost their second consecutive game when they dropped a close 48-45 contest against the Seattle Seahawks. QB Jared Goff had a big game but the Detroit defense was atrocious again and they were not able to make stops against Seattle.

Meanwhile, the Patriots are also 1-3 SU on the season and 0-1 SU in the AFC East. Like the Lions, the Pats lost their second straight contest last weekend, dropping a 27-24 decision to the Green Bay Packers in overtime. New England’s defense also failed them against the Packers, allowing Green Bay to amass 443 offensive yards.

Detroit Lions

The Lions have looked good on offense this season. They lead the NFL in scoring at 35.0 points per game and they average 436.8 yards per game in total offense, broken down to 272.8 passing yards and 164.0 rushing yards per game.

Jared Goff is off to a good start with 1,126 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, and only three interceptions. They have a two-headed running attack led by Jamal Williams‘ 276 rushing yards and D’Ande Swift‘s 231 yards on the ground, with the two combining for seven rushing touchdowns. TJ Hockenson has caught 261 yards while Amon-Ra St. Brown has 253 receiving yards. The two wideouts have combined to catch six TD passes.

Detroit is, however, the worst defensive team this season. They are allowing a league-worst 35.3 points per game and 444.8 offensive yards per contest, broken down to 165.5 rushing yards and 279.9 passing yards allowed. Malcolm Rodriguez leads the team with 33 tackles while Aidan Hutchinson has 3.0 sacks to pace the Lions. Detroit has yet to force a turnover this season.

New England Patriots

The Patriots are just no. 23 in scoring at 18.5 points per game. They are 18th in total offense at 341.3 yards per contest. New England is averaging 128.5 rushing yards per game and just 212.5 passing yards per outing.

Starting QB Mac Jones missed last week’s loss versus Green Bay with a sprained ankle and is questionable to play in this game. If Jones is a no-go, then Bailey Zappe looks to start again. Zappe took Jones’ spot last week and passed for 99 yards with 1 TD pass. Damien Harris had 246 rushing yards and three rushing TDs to pace the Patriots. Nelson Agholor is the team’s leading pass-catcher with 14 catches for 225 yards with one TD.

New England is 22nd in points allowed at 24.5 points per game. They are 19th with a total of 346.8 yards per game allowed, which includes 135.8 yards on the ground and 211.0 yards through the air. Ja’Whaun Bentley is the team’s leading tackler with 25 and Devin McCourty is next to him with 24 tackles. Deatrich Wise Jr. and Matthew Judon each have 4.0 sacks to lead New England.

Who Wins?

The Lions are 2-4 SU in their last six games played against the Patriots. Detroit is 1-3 SU in their last four games played in New England.

Detroit Lions SU trends:

• The Lions are 4-15-1 SU in their last 20 games played.

• The Lions are 0-5 SU in their last five road games.

• The Lions are 0-9-1 SU in their last 10 games played as road underdogs.

• The Lions are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games played on field turf.

New England Patriot SU trends:

• The Patriots are 1-5 SU in their last six games played.

• The Patriots are 4-6 SU in their last 10 home games.

• The Patriots are 4-1 SU in their last five games played against the NFC.

• The Patriots are 16-3 SU in their last 19 games played versus the NFC North Division.

Despite missing their leading receiver in Amon-Ra St. Brown and leading rusher in D’Andre Swift in their previous game, the Lions fought hard and kept the game close before losing a shootout to the Seattle Seahawks 48-45. After the game, the Lions had a new leading receiver in TJ Hockenson who had 179 yards, and Jamal Williams who has 108 rushing yards with two TDs.

The problem with the Lions right now is that their defense has been atrocious. They rank dead last in the league with 448.8 offensive yards allowed and 35.3 points per game conceded. This poor effort on the defensive end is the main reason why the Lions have won just one game after four weeks.

Meanwhile, the Patriots are also coming off a loss to the Green Bay Packers. But if there was any moral victory in that game, it was that the New England defense held Aaron Rodgers in check for most of the game. However, head coach Bill Belichick doesn’t believe in moral victories.

New England was run over by the Green Bay offense in overtime. And their defense could not stop the Packers when they needed it most. In order to avoid a similar outcome, the defense must play well for 60 full minutes to win this game.

The Lions have scored at least 35 points in three out of their first four games of the season so there is no doubt they will try to make this a high-scoring affair while looking to outscore the Patriots. New England’s offense hasn’t been humming this season, so the Lions have a chance in this game.

The Patriots cannot get lured into a shootout with the Lions. Instead, Belichick is going to use his experience to try and limit the Lions’ scoring chances. If they do that, they should win this game.

Prediction: New England Patriots

Lions vs Patriots ATS Prediction

Detroit is 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games played against New England. The Lions are also 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games played in New England.

Detroit Lions ATS trends:

• The Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

• The Lions are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games.

• The Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

• The Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

• The Lions are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

• The Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

• The Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

• The Lions are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss.

• The Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

• The Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on field turf.

• The Lions are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight-up loss.

New England Patriots ATS trends:

• The Patriots are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games in Week 5.

• The Patriots are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

• The Patriots are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

• The Patriots are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS win.

• The Patriots are 28-10 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

• The Patriots are 46-20-2 ATS in their last 68 games in October.

• The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last five games played against the NFC.

• The Patriots are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

• The Patriots are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

• The Patriots are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

No doubt that the Patriots have the edge here because of their defense, and I think that will win the game for them. However, this one should be a closely fought game that could be decided a less than a field goal. Without Mac Jones, you can’t trust the New England offense. It has to come from the defense.

Meanwhile, Detroit’s three losses have been by four points or fewer. Without their starting QB, the Patriots offense is compromised and the Lions should have a better chance of competing in this game. New England has outscored Detroit by an average of 3.33 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings. This one should be even closer with Mac Jones out.

Prediction: Lions +3

Lions vs Patriots Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone under in two out of the last three head-to-head meetings between these two teams. The under is also 1-3 in their last four games played in New England.

Detroit Lions over/under trends:

• Over is 6-0 in the Lions’ last 6 games overall.

• Over is 5-0 in the Lions’ last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

• Over is 5-0 in the Lions’ last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

• Over is 5-0 in the Lions’ last 5 games following a straight-up loss.

• Over is 6-0 in the Lions’ last 6 games on field turf.

• Over is 5-1 in the Lions’ last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

• Over is 4-1 in the Lions’ last 5 games in Week 5.

• Under is 9-2 in the Lions’ last 11 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

• Under is 4-1 in the Lions’ last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

• Under is 6-2 in the Lions’ last 8 games in October.

• Under is 8-3 in the Lions’ last 11 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

• Under is 8-3 in the Lions’ last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

• Under is 5-2 in the Lions’ last 7 games following an ATS loss.

New England Patriots over/under trends:

• Over is 6-2 in the Patriots’ last 8 games overall.

• Over is 5-0 in the Patriots’ last 5 games in October.

• Over is 7-0 in the Patriots’ last 7 home games.

• Over is 9-1 in the Patriots’ last 10 games on field turf.

• Over is 4-1 in the Patriots’ last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

• Under is 6-2 in the Patriots’ last 8 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

• Over is 6-2 in the Patriots’ last 8 games following a straight-up loss.

• Over is 29-14 in the Patriots’ last 43 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

These teams have combined to score an average of 45.33 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings, and 49.33 points per game in their most recent three head-to-head games played. The Lions have the worst defense in the entire league and even without Mac Jones, the Patriots should be able to score enough points to put the score over the total.

Detroit is also the highest-scoring team in the league at 35.0 points per game this season. The over is 4-0 in their four games played this season. The Patriots have also figured in high-scoring contests when playing at home. I think these teams are going to hit the over.

Prediction: Over 45.5

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