Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings 09/25/2022 NFL Preview and Prediction

The Detroit Lions hit the road on Sunday against the Minnesota Vikings in an early NFC North Division showdown.

Detroit’s offense continued to play well as they defeated the Washington Commanders at home last week. Detroit is 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS this year and are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games played overall. Meanwhile, the Vikings fell back to earth last week after pulling off a big upset over the Green Bay Packers in Week 1. The Vikings are 1-1 SU and ATS on the season.

All four NFC North teams are 1-1 on the season so the winner of this game should get at least a share of the top spot. The Vikings have won two out of their last three games played against the Lions but Detroit won their most recent outing last December 5, 2021, with a 29-27 score.

Detroit Lions

The Lions’ comeback came up short in Week 1 but they did not have to come from behind last week as they built an early 22-0 lead before coasting in the second half to beat the Washington Commanders. At 1-1 on the season, this is a very much better start for Detroit which didn’t pick up its first win until their 13th game last year.

Jared Goff passed for 256 yards with 4 touchdowns and no interceptions. Amon-Ra St. Brown caught 9 passes for 116 yards with two TD grabs while also leading the team with 68 rushing yards. D’Andre Swift also contributed 56 rushing yards on five carries while also catching two passes for 31 yards with one TD grab. Detroit had a big game with 425 offensive yards including 191 on the ground.

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings came crashing back to earth after pulling off a big upset against the Green Bay Packers in Week 1. Jalen Hurts picked up 300 total yards as the Eagles took an early 24-7 lead that they would not relinquish. Neither team scored in the second half and the Vikings dropped to 1-1 SU and ATS on the season.

Kirk Cousins was held to 221 passing yards with only 1 TD pass and 3 INTs after a brilliant Week 1 effort. Justin Jefferson, who caught 184 yards against the Packers, was held down to six catches and 48 yards by the Eagles’ defense. The Philly defense held Minnesota to 4.7 yards per catch and allowed them to convert only 4 of 12 third downs. The Vikings’ defense surrendered 486 offensive yards including 323 through the air.

Who Wins?

The Vikings are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games played against the Lions. Minnesota is also 7-3 SU in their last 10 home games against Detroit.

The Lions are:

• 4-15-1 SU in their last 20 games played.

• 0-9-1 SU in their last 10 games played on the road.

• 3-15 SU in their last 18 games played against the NFC North Division.

The Vikings are:

• 4-3 SU in their last 7 games played overall

• 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played at home.

• 9-3 SU in their last 12 games played against the NFC North Division.

• 2-7 SU in their last 9 September games.

Detroit’s offense looked good in Week 1 but their defense was unable to stop the Eagles so despite scoring 35 points, they allowed 38 and lost their opening game of the season. Last week, the Lions bounced back and picked up their first win of the year. However, they still allowed the Washington Commanders to put up 27 points in another poor defensive effort.

Jared Goff completed 20 of 34 passes for 256 yards with four passing touchdowns and no interceptions in the win. For the season, he has 471 passing yards with six touchdowns and only 1 INT so far. With Goff off to a fine start, the Lions have enough on offense to make this game competitive. However, the bigger issue will be if their defense can perform after two lackluster efforts.

Meanwhile, Kirk Cousins had a rough night last Monday as he went 27-46 with only 221 yards with one passing TD and 3 INTs. With the 24-7 loss, Cousins dropped to 2-10 SU and ATS in 12 Monday Night Football appearances. Thankfully, this game will be on Sunday not Monday so I expect a bounce-back effort from him.

Given how the Detroit defense has played so far, Cousins should find his rhythm here as will Justin Jefferson who was held to six catches and 48 receiving yards. The Vikings are also 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games played at home. They should have a better game this week than the previous one.

Prediction: Minnesota Vikings

Lions vs Vikings ATS Prediction

The Vikings are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games played against the Lions. The home team is also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams.

The Lions are:

• 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

• 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.

• 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

• 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 3.

• 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC North.

• 5-0 ATS versus a team with a winning record.

• 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

• 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against the NFC.

• 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on field turf.

• 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

• 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

• 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in September.

• 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win.

• 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

• 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

The Vikings are:

• 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.

• 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 3.

• 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

• 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.

• 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on field turf.

• 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss.

• 45-20 ATS in their last 65 games following a straight-up loss.

• 29-13-1 ATS in their last 43 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

• 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight-up win.

• 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight-up win of more than 14 points.

• 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

• 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

• 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

• 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

The Vikings looked great when they beat Green Bay in Week 1 but regressed during last week’s loss to the Eagles. However, the Vikings’ offense should look better on Sunday against a Detroit defense that ranks in the bottom third in defense.

Playing against Detroit should mean a better passing game for Cousins who should find his rhythm. Meanwhile, Jefferson should be able to bounce back after a disappointing effort against the Eagles. If Dalvin Cook gets it going here, this is a sure cover for the Vikings.

Detroit’s offense has been led by its ground attack and they should have no issues running the football on Sunday. However, if the Vikings’ offense gets it going early as I expect, then the Lions will be playing catch-up here and would be wasting precious time if they run the ball all night long.

Minnesota should return to their week 1 form against a weak Detroit defense.

Prediction: Viking -5.5

Lions vs Vikings Over/Under 

The total has gone over in three out of the last four head-to-head meetings between these two teams. The under is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings in Minnesota.

Detroit Lions over/under trends:

• Over is 4-0 in the Lions’ last 4 games overall.

• Over is 4-0 in the Lions’ last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

• Over is 4-0 in the Lions’ last 4 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

• Over is 4-0 in the Lions’ last 4 games on field turf.

• Over is 4-0 in the Lions’ last 4 against the. NFC.

• Over is 4-1 in the Lions’ last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

• Over is 4-1 in the Lions’ last 5 games following an ATS win.

• Over is 8-2 in the Lions’ last 10 games in September.

• Under is 6-2 in the Lions’ last 8 road games.

• Under is 5-2 in the Lions’ last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.

• Under is 4-0 in the Lions’ last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

• Under is 9-2 in the Lions’ last 11 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

• Under is 4-1 in the Lions’ last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Minnesota Vikings over/under trends:

• Over is 7-3 in the Vikings’ last 10 games overall.

• Over is 4-1 in the Vikings’ last 5 home games.

• Over is 5-0 in the Vikings’ last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

• Over is 8-1 in the Vikings’ last 9 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

• Over is 7-1 in the Vikings’ last 8 games following a straight-up loss of more than 14 points.

• Over is 6-1 in the Vikings’ last 7 games following an ATS loss.

• Over is 5-1 in the Vikings’ last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

• Over is 5-1 in the Vikings’ last 6 games on field turf.

• Over is 4-1 in the Vikings’ last 5 games following a straight-up loss.

• Over is 7-2 in the Vikings’ last 9 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

• Over is 6-2 in the Vikings’ last 8 versus the NFC.

• Over is 8-3 in the Vikings’ last 11 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

• Under is 8-3 in the Vikings’ last 11 games following a straight-up win of more than 14 points.

• Over is 5-2 in the Vikings’ last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

• Over is 10-4 in the Vikings’ last 14 versus NFC North.

If rookie DE Hutchinson will be limited in any way with his thigh injury, then the Minnesota Vikings’ offense should be in good shape at home against the unproven Lions’ defense. Having said that, Cousins could have a field day on Sunday against the Lions. Jefferson should be able to expose Detroit’s weak secondary and Cook should be able to pile up the yards with plenty of room to work in the middle of the defense.

Meanwhile, the Lions have had no issues scoring points after two weeks played, and it’s their defense that needs more fine-tuning. Detroit is averaging 35.5 points per game after two weeks and has allowed over 32 points per game this year.

These teams have combined to score 57.67 points per game in their last three head-to-head meetings. Sunday’s game should be another high-scoring affair.

Prediction: Over 52.5

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