Looking At The Betting Scene – Serie A Week 11 Preview

The first ten weeks of the Serie A have certainly not disappointed, and week 11 should be no different as Fiorentina and Roma clash in this week’s marquee matchup. Elsewhere, Juventus try to fend off Inter and Napoli while Milan and Lazio battle it out for the final Champions League spot.

But the excitement is not why I’m here. Today, I’ll be previewing all ten of this week’s fixtures, shedding some light on the matchup, and giving my own opinion on the best bets of this week. There’s no shortage of upside and value to be seen here, and money is always there to be won. Without further ado, let’s get started!

Money Matchups

Fiorentina vs Roma

 

Preview

Fiorentina won’t be happy with how they’ve performed in recent weeks. After a great start to the season, they’ve only garnered two points in their last three games, a disappointing performance. Nevertheless, the Viola are still sixth in the league, and their strength in the backline hasn’t abandoned them just yet.

Roma drew their last game against Napoli, a good result against the second best team in the league. Roma was supposed to be a serious contender for the podium this year, but their midfield has yet to come together, and the loss of De Rossi and Strootman seems to have seriously hurt the Giallorossi.

This is the week’s most highly anticipated affair. Both teams have 15 points on the season, and this should make for an exciting affair. A win against Roma would be just what the Viola need, and if they can rediscover their form, I think they’ll win, the support of the home crowd behind them.

Prediction: Fiorentina 1-0 Roma

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Parma vs Frosinone

 

Preview

Parma have been less than stellar thus far this season. They’ve managed to come away with a couple of victories against lower tier teams, but their resurgence is still not fully complete. Their attack, while quite quick, has been neutralized by the stronger defenses in the league.

Frosinone may have started the season off poorly, but they showed serious signs of improvement in a 3-0 rout against SPAL last week. They were clinical, and they dismantled a decent SPAL team. Frosinone don’t want to return to the Serie B, and if they continue to perform like they did last week, they have a serious shot at doing so.

Neither team has performed especially well, and battles between more obscure teams tend to be close. Parma might be favorites for this one, but the inconsistency of these two teams means that anything could happen. Frosinone has a decent chance at taking home a point this Sunday, and the odds mean they are a value bet this week.

Prediction: Parma 2-2 Frosinone

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Inter vs Genoa

Preview

Inter is on a roll as of late. They’ve won eight of their last nine, their only loss coming to Barcelona, and they sit second in the Serie A because of it. Their magnificent transfer window finally seems to be coming to fruition, and Icardi is only getting better with each game he plays. Inter are a serious contender for the scudetto, and they’re beginning to show exactly why.

Genoa has not enjoyed the same success, but they haven’t had a bad season by any means. Their attack has been surprisingly strong, Piatek leading the charge for Genoa as well as the race for capocannoniere. They certainly gave Milan a scare, and they have a chance to do the same against another Milanese side.

This matchup may look one-sided on paper, but Genoa has been known to pull off some major upsets. Inter have found their form, but they’ve been shaky before, and it only takes one mistake for Genoa to make a miracle happen. Inter are huge favorites according to the bookies which makes a Genoa upset great value.

Prediction: Inter 0-1 Genoa

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Sampdoria vs Torino

Preview

Sampdoria is one of the dark horses for this year’s Serie A campaign. While they are largely considered a mid-table team, they’ve proven to be a force to be reckoned with – especially in defense. Quagliarella has been a bright spot in attack, and the veteran, while certainly past his prime, is clinical in front of goal.

Torino has struggled to start off the season. Their attack is not what it once was, and Belotti’s price tag has only continued to fall after another disappointing campaign. I Granata have struggled all year against higher level teams, and they’ll need to play better if they want a win this time around.

In my opinion, this is an incredibly safe bet that promises great returns. Sampdoria is incredibly fun to watch, and their open style of play means that they can create space and initiate the counterattack very quickly. Torino has failed to impress as of yet, and Sampdoria, with the support of their home fans, should take this one pretty comfortably.

Prediction: Sampdoria 1-0 Torino

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Rapid-Fire Round

If you didn’t see the matchup you’re interested in above, I’ve listed the remaining matchups below along with my personal picks. There are certainly some good opportunities here as well, so if you do some research, you’ll be able to find value.

Chievo vs Sassuolo

Prediction: Chievo 1-2 Sassuolo

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Udinese vs Milan

Prediction: Udinese 0-2 Milan

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Lazio vs SPAL

 

Prediction: Lazio 2-0 SPAL

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Napoli vs Empoli

Prediction: Napoli 3-1 Empoli

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Juventus vs Cagliari

Prediction: Juventus 3-1 Cagliari

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Bologna vs Atalanta

Prediction: Bologna 1-1 Atalanta

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Extras – Other Opportunities Around The League

Ride the Hot Hand – Stellar Suso Strikes Again?

• Odds – 1 Goal (3.15), 2 Goals (14), Hat-Trick (80)

Suso has been one of Milan’s best players in recent years, but he’s been absolutely superb for the Rossoneri this year. In fact, WhoScored gives him the highest rating of any player in the Serie A so far this season. The Spaniard has already scored four goals and earned another seven assists in just ten games, and his ability to create chances and open up space make him dangerous whenever he touches the ball.

Suso takes on a weak Udinese defense this weekend, and his deadly left foot could make another appearance. He is clinical both from long range and from inside the box, and when he gets a chance, he very rarely makes a mistake. With a goal from Suso more than tripling your money, I think the odds are excellent for the Serie A’s hottest player thus far.

Juventus – The Bianconeri Won’t Let It Be Close

• Odds – Juventus -1 (1.45); Juventus -2 (2.3); Juventus -3 (4.25)

Juventus has been its usual self so far this season. They are still undefeated on the season, and the only points they’ve dropped came on a 1-1 draw against Genoa, a game they thoroughly dominated from start to finish. Ronaldo has found his range and is inching ever closer to the title of capocannoniere, and their defense is still the best in Italy and arguably the best in the entire world.

Juventus face off against Cagliari on Saturday, a team that has seriously struggled this campaign. Juventus will be looking for a decisive victory, and if they play like they can, they should be able to get one. The Bianconeri are Italy’s best team, and they’ll look to make a statement when they take the pitch in Turin.

Sassuolo vs Chievo – Defensive Blunders

• Odds (O/U) – Over 2.5 Goals (2); Over 3.5 Goals (3.9); Over 4.5 Goals (7)

One of the most interesting bets to play in soccer is the over/under. Not only does it provide great value, but you get to cheer for both sides; when playing the over, either team can score. Sassuolo and Chievo look set for a high-scoring affair. Neither team is exceptionally strong in attack, but their weaknesses on the defensive side of the ball mean that a lot of goals should be scored.

Chievo is the league’s worst team, and they also have the Serie A’s worst defense, having already conceded 26 goals. While their attack has been equally as poor, they should see some chances against a lackluster Sassuolo defense which has already conceded 16 times. Two bad teams score just as often as two good ones, and this lower-tier matchup could prove to be very exciting indeed. The over promises a great return, and for soccer fans, plenty of fun.

Sampdoria – The League’s Best Defense

• Odds – Sampdoria to Win to Nil (4.33)

If you were asked to name the league’s top defenses, Sampdoria would not be the first name on your list. However, their defensive results this season have been more than impressive. Through ten games, Sampdoria have conceded just seven goals, the same number as Juventus. Three of those goals came last week against the Rossoneri, but luckily for the Blucerchiati, they’ll take on a much easier opponent this time around.

Torino has lost its offensive swagger, and Belotti and Falque look nowhere near as deadly as they used to. In my opinion, Sampdoria is a huge favorite for this matchup, especially playing at home, and this advantage is hugely based on their defensive superiority. I don’t think Torino’s attack will be able to break through one of the league’s best backlines, and with a Sampdoria win and clean sheet offering more than four to one odds, this is a bet you can’t resist.