Four weeks of Italian soccer have already passed us by, and to no one’s surprise, Juventus are still on top of the league. The Serie A is one of the most exciting and talent-filled leagues in the world, and this week’s matchups present several potential upsets.
Today, I’ll be looking for the best value for bettors – analyzing all ten matchups and giving my opinion on where there’s money to be made. Without further ado, let’s get started!
Odds – Home Win (4.00)
Away Win (1.90)
Draw (3.60)
After an excellent transfer window, Inter were considered by many to be contenders for the scudetto. Unfortunately for the Nerazzurri, they haven’t had the best of starts – losing to Sassuolo and Parma and dropping points against a lackluster Torino side. In their first four games of the season – a relatively easy string of matches as well – they’ve only been able to grab four points.
Sampdoria, on the other hand, have had a pleasantly surprising start to the season. They upset Napoli with a convincing 3-0 win, and they’re actually fourth in the league right now. Their defense has held up better than expected, and their attack – led by the Frenchman, Defrel, has proven to be an electrifying force.
Sampdoria look like a great pick this week. They’re playing at home against an Inter side that has struggled to find any consistency, and Sampdoria’s attack could certainly trouble Inter. With 4 to 1 odds for a Sampdoria win, I think this is the best value you’ll find all week; Inter are coming off a midweek game against Tottenham, and Sampdoria are ready and eager to strike.
Prediction: Sampdoria 2-1 Inter.
Odds – Home Win (2.37)
Away Win (3.10)
Draw (3.25)
Parma have returned to their rightful place in the Serie A following bankruptcy with the previous ownership. And they’ve performed surprisingly well since their return, upsetting Inter just last week. Parma’s roster is nothing special; they have a couple of good players – Inglese, Gervinho – but their ability to play as a team is what makes them such an interesting side.
Cagliari are coming off a great result against the Rossoneri. They dominated for much of the first half against Milan, and Niccolo Barella has quickly developed into one of the most exciting midfield prospects in all of Italy. They’ve only earned five points in their first four matches, but they have performed well under the spotlight – defeating Atalanta at home.
I’m taking Cagliari to win this game. Parma are still adjusting to their return to the highest flight of Italian football, and Cagliari are looking like a solid team. Cagliari have been the better side so far this season, and with their great odds (3.10), they present my favorite betting opportunity of the week – particularly against a struggling and wildy inconsistent Parma squad.
Prediction: Parma 1-2 Cagliari.
Odds – Home Win (4.33)
Away Win (1.80)
Draw (3.75)
Napoli have looked good so far this season; they’ve only dropped points against Sampdoria, and they seem to have rebounded well. In three difficult matchups against Milan, Fiorentina, and Lazio, they garnered all 9 points – crucial results if they wish to remain in contention for the scudetto.
Torino, however, look to be the same mid-table team as they were last year. Their attack is no longer as potent, especially as Belotti has failed to live up to expectations. And their defense is lackluster – filled with veterans who are long past their prime.
Despite this seeming mismatch, Napoli are still given great odds (1.8) to win at Torino. I Granata have looked poor the entire season, and if Napoli takes care of business like they need to, I see no reason to doubt the Partenopei. They have an incredibly well-rounded team; Koulibaly leads the defense, Zielinksi and Hamsik provide creative inspiration in midfield, and Insigne, Callejon, and Milik lead one of the league’s deadliest attacks.
Simply put, Torino don’t have the weapons to deal with an in-form Napoli team. If the Partenopei play well, they should be in a great position to snatch all three points. This is a great bet with very little risk.
Prediction: Torino 1-2 Napoli.
Odds – Home Win (2.00)
Away Win (3.80)
Draw (3.50)
Sassuolo have had a surprisingly good start to the season. While they may not be the same team that qualified for the Europa League just two years ago, they’ve notched some impressive results – defeating Inter at home and earning victory in an eight goal thriller against Genoa.
Empoli, newly promoted from the Serie B, started off strong with a win against Cagliari, but their inexperience and lack of talent has begun to shine through. In their last three games, they’ve only earned a single point, and they seem unable to cope with the more tactical and skilled teams in the Serie A.
Sassuolo have won all their matches at home so far, and the Mapei Stadium, despite its small size, is a thrilling atmosphere when the Neroverdi are playing. Sassuolo have shown flashes of brilliance, and their team is still filled with talent; Berardi remains a highly coveted target and Duncan is one of the most underrated midfielders in the league. Sassuolo are huge favorites for this matchup, and I see them coming away with victory enough to warrant the odds.
Prediction: Sassuolo 1-0 Empoli.
If you didn’t see the matchup you’re interested in above, I’ve listed the remaining matchups below along with my personal picks. There are certainly some good opportunities here as well, so if you do some research, you’ll be able to find value.
Odds – Fiorentina (1.65)
Away Win (6.00)
Draw (3.60)
Prediction: Fiorentina 2-0 SPAL.
Odds – Home Win (1.45)
Away Win (6.50)
Draw (4.75)
Prediction: Lazio 2-1 Genoa.
Odds – Home Win (3.10)
Away Win (2.40)
Draw (3.20)
Prediction: Chievo 1-2 Udinese.
Odds – Home Win (5.50)
Away Win (1.66)
Draw (3.75)
Prediction: Bologna 1-3 Roma.
Odds – Home Win (13.00)
Away Win (1.20)
Draw (7.00)
Prediction: Frosinone 1-4 Juventus.
Milan vs Atalanta should be a high scoring affair. Milan have yet to play a game with fewer than two goals, and in a matchup with two high-powered attacks like this one, there should be plenty of goals around. Perhaps more interesting is the defensive situation of the two sides; both are prone to errors and lapses in defense, and these mistakes could prove costly for both teams.
A three goal match would double your money, and I think that’s more than likely in this matchup. Milan have looked shaky, but they’ve scored in all of their games so far; whether you think the Rossoneri will win or not, their inconsistency could prove to be exactly what the over/under asked for. This is a great bet in what should be a thrilling matchup.
While the odds aren’t great at 1.66, this bet is incredibly safe. Juventus, the best team in the league, will be squaring off against Frosinone, the worst team in the league. In a battle between the Serie A giants and the newly promoted side, there’s almost no doubt as to who will emerge on top.
All Juve need to do for this bet to win is lead at halftime and win the game. If you have any doubts, Juve’s attack – led by Cristiano Ronaldo and Paulo Dybala – is going against a defense that has already conceded 10 goals in 4 games. This is potentially one of the safest bets you could make all season, and with the odds so good, this could be an incredibly easy way to earn some money.
While Dzeko hasn’t gotten off to a brilliant start this campaign, he remains one of the most consistent and lethal strikers in the league. The Bosnian attacker has scored a total of 45 goals in the last two Serie A seasons, leading Roma’s attack from the front.
Against Bologna, Dzeko has a great chance to show off his finishing abilities. Against Inter – the only decent team they’ve faced so far – Bologna conceded three goals, and the team finds themselves third to last in the league. Dzeko is one of the best poachers in the world, and there should be plenty of opportunities for him to get on the score sheet.
With odds sitting at 1.83 for a single goal and 4.5 for a brace, there is certainly some great value here. Dzeko has shown time and time again what he’s capable of, and he’ll be hungry for goals against one of the Serie A’s worst defenses.
Parma and Cagliari seem to be two very evenly matched teams. The two sides are separated by just one point in the standings, and they’ve scored and conceded the same number of goals. Neither team is a threat in the league, but a matchup of two mid-table teams often seems to produce some interesting results.
Both teams have relatively weak defenses which make them prone to conceding goals, and they both have some very interesting attacking players – Inglese and Gervinho can provide some scoring outlets for Parma while Barella and Pavoletti make for an excellent creative duo with Cagliari.
Goals from both sides would almost double your money, and in such an even matchup, there’s bound to be a couple goals. The opportunities will be there, and the two teams will be hungry for their second win of the season; this bet provides excellent value.
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