Los Angeles Rams vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11/06/2022 NFL Odds and Prediction

Two preseason favorites who have not lived up to expectations after 8 weeks meet at the Raymond James Stadium on Sunday to determine who snaps his losing streak.

The defending Super Bowl Champions Rams are just 3-4 SU on the season and they head to this game having lost their last four games played. Los Angeles was badly beaten by the San Francisco 49ers last weekend in a rematch of last season’s NFC title game.

Like the Rams, the Buccaneers have struggled off the gates. After winning two road games to start the year, Tampa Bay has won just once in their last six games played and Tom Brady is 3-5 for the first time in his legendary career. The Bucs lost to the Ravens last weekend 27-22.

Los Angeles Rams

The Rams had one of the best offenses in the NFL last season But with the likes of Odell Beckham and left tackle Andrew Whitworth gone, the passing game and offensive line have struggled. Los Angeles has the third-worst offense in the league at 285.6 yards and 18.9 points per game.

Matthew Stafford has thrown for 1,763 passing yards but only has 7 TD passes and a QBR of 46.5. Darrell Henderson Jr. leads the team in rushing with 197 yards on 50 carries with 2 rush TDs. Meanwhile, Super Bowl LVI MVP Cooper Kupp has been the lone bright spot for the defending champions as he has caught 64 passes for 686 receiving yards with 5 TD grabs.

Los Angeles is 15th in passing with 229.0 yards per game but they are next to last in rushing at only 68.4 yards per contest. Los Angeles is also 28th in scoring at 16.9 points per game and they are 18th in scoring defense at 22.4 points per game allowed.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers have seen injuries to their offensive line affect their offense over the past month. Tampa Bay has lost three straight games and they have scored just 43 total points during that span. Tom Brady has looked uncomfortable during this stretch and the Bucs are struggling to score points.

Brady has amassed 2,267 passing yards after 8 games but only has 9 TD passes and a QBR of 52.2. Leonard Fournette has rushed for 386 yards on 112 carries with 2 TDs to lead the Bucs while Mike Evans is the team leader with 577 receiving yards on 39 catches with 3 TD grabs.

Tampa Bay is the 5th best passing team in the NFL at 271.0 yards per game. The Bucs are, however, dead last in rushing at just 61.9 yards per contest. They are also just 25th in scoring at 18.3 points per game. The Buccaneers defense is however 6th best in the league at 18.9 points per game allowed.

Rams vs Buccaneers SU Prediction

The Rams are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games played against the Buccaneers. Los Angeles is also 5-0 SU in their last five games played at Raymond James Stadium.

Los Angeles Rams SU trends:

• The Rams are 12-5 SU in their last 17 games played.
• The Rams are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games played on the road.
• The Rams are 6-0 SU in their last 6 games played against the NFC South Division.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers SU trends:

• The Buccaneers are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games played.
• The Buccaneers are 1-1 SU in their 2 home games played this season.
• The Buccaneers are 0-8 SU in their last 8 Week 9 games played.
• The Buccaneers are 1-4 SU in their last 5 Sunday games.

The Rams reportedly made a big push to acquire Christian McCaffrey but instead, the Panthers dealt him to the 49ers and he wound up with 1 receiving TD, 1 rushing TD, and 1 passing TD against the Rams in a 31-14 win by the Niners. Meanwhile, the Rams dropped to 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four games played. Overall, the Rams are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games played.

After Cam Akers missed two games, many thought the Rams would end up trading him for a new running back but the trade deadline came and went and they didn’t do anything. Now the Rams must fix this 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS start with him leading the rushing attack.

Tampa Bay opened the season with back-to-back road wins against the Dallas Cowboys and New Orleans Saints. The wheels have fallen off since then as the Bucs are just 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in their last six games despite being the betting favorites in all six games. Last week’s 27-22 defeat to the Ravens gave Brady’s Bucs a third straight outright loss.

Tom Brady has thrown only 1 INT this season and he is second in passing yards with 2,267 after 8 games. However, the six-time Super Bowl winner has only thrown 9 TD passes and is off to the worst start of his legendary career at 3-5 SU.

Getting offense will be the key for Los Angeles as they have scored 20 or more points in their 3 wins and 14 or fewer points in their four losses. Los Angeles was lucky that Super Bowl LVI MVP Cooper Kupp didn’t suffer anything serious during Sunday’s loss to the 49ers.

Brady hasn’t looked too bad at all this season. But during their current 1-4 SU spell, the Bucs’ rush defense has conceded 164.2 yards per game. If the Bucs’ defense will play a good game on Sunday, that should give Brady and the offense a chance to win this game.

Both teams are struggling but I like the Bucs here. Not only is Tampa Bay playing at home, but their offense is also playing better than the Rams right now.

Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rams vs Buccaneers ATS Prediction

The Rams are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games played against the Buccaneers. Los Angeles is also 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games played at Raymond James Stadium. The road team is also 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams. The underdog is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 games between the Rams and Bucs.

Los Angeles Rams ATS trends:

• The Rams are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
• The Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• The Rams are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home.
• The Rams are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
• The Rams are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The Rams are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS loss.
• The Rams are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Rams are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games versus the NFC.
• The Rams are 4-10 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
• The Rams are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight-up loss of more than 14 points.
• The Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The Rams are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 9.
• The Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in November.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers ATS trends:

• The Buccaneers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• The Buccaneers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games.
• The Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record.
• The Buccaneers are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Buccaneers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The Buccaneers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The Buccaneers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.
• The Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight-up loss.
• The Buccaneers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 9.
• The Buccaneers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.

 

No question, this isn’t the same Tom Brady from the 2020 title year or the Brady from 2021. However, this version of Tom Brady is still producing good numbers and has been above average this season. It’s just that the defense usually doesn’t give him a chance of winning games.

In their last outing, Tampa Bay surrendered 231 rushing yards and 27 first downs. Brady and his offense only had 21+ minutes of possession time. That’s not going to win games. If the defense plays well on Sunday, Brady should be able to help the Bucs win and cover.

Meanwhile, the Rams’ offense has been terrible. They picked up only 223 offensive yards and 16 first downs in the loss to the 49ers. Should the Tampa Bay defense play better, this kind of offense won’t work even against the 2022 version of Tom Brady.

Prediction: Buccaneers -3

Rams vs Buccaneers Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone over in each of the last six games played between the Rams and Buccaneers.

Los Angeles Rams over/under trends:

• The under is 4-1 in the Rams’ last 5 games overall.
• The under is 4-0 in the Rams’ last 4 games following a straight-up loss of more than 14 points.
• The under is 7-1 in the Rams’ last 8 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The under is 7-1 in the Rams’ last 8 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The under is 5-1 in the Rams’ last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The under is 5-1 in the Rams’ last 6 games following a straight-up loss.
• The under is 4-1 in the Rams’ last 5 games against the NFC.
• The under is 4-1 in the Rams’ last 5 road games.
• The under is 6-2 in the Rams’ last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home.
• The under is 6-2 in the Rams’ last 8 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
• The under is 11-4-1 in the Rams’ last 16 games versus a team with a losing record.
• The under is 19-7 in the Rams’ last 26 games following an ATS loss.
• The under is 19-7-1 in the Rams’ last 27 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
• The under is 5-2 in the Rams’ last 7 games in November.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers over/under trends:

• The under is 6-2 in the Buccaneers’ last 8 games overall.
• The under is 12-2 in the Buccaneers’ last 14 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The under is 9-2 in the Buccaneers’ last 11 games following a straight-up loss.
• The under is 13-3 in the Buccaneers’ last 16 games played against the NFC.
• The under is 8-2 in the Buccaneers’ last 10 games versus a team with a losing record.
• The under is 6-2 in the Buccaneers’ last 8 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The under is 8-3 in the Buccaneers’ last 11 games following an ATS loss.
• The over is 12-5 in the Buccaneers’ last 17 games in Week 9.
• The under is 12-5 in the Buccaneers’ last 17 games on grass.
• The over is 7-3 in the Buccaneers’ last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Although the offense hasn’t been Tampa Bay’s main issue this season, they aren’t scoring enough points via touchdowns as Brady only has 9 after 8 games played. Meanwhile, the Rams have struggled with their offense this season and have seen the total go under 40 points four times in their last five games played. They scored 20 or fewer points four times in those five games played.

Both teams have issues with their offensive lines and because of that, both like to play conservatively when having the lead. Both teams also have good pass rushers that can take advantage of their offensive lines. This one should be a low-scoring game.

Prediction: Under 42.5

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