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Louisville vs Syracuse 11/9/18 NCAA Football Odds, Preview and Prediction

The Louisville Cardinals play the Syracuse Orange in ACC action on Friday 11/9/18 at the Carrier Dome in Syracuse, New York on Friday.

These teams are heading opposite directions as the Cardinals have lost six in a row including a couple of demoralizing defeats while the Orange have surged to the #13 ranking in the nation after consecutive wins over Wake Forest, North Carolina State and North Carolina.

Going Nowhere

The Louisville Cardinals lost plenty of talent to the NFL including first rounders Lamar Jackson and Jaire Alexander and life without them has been a disaster. The Cardinals are 2-7 on the season and have lost six game in a row. To make matters worse, their last three losses have been by 18, 21 and 61 points to Boston College,Wake Forest and Clemson, respectively. With the way things are, their season may be going nowhere.

The Cardinals defense has been one of the worst in college football this year and it has given up at least 56 points in three out of their last four games. Their running game has only been able to run for 3.4 yards per carry while sophomore quarterback Jawon Pass has thrown only seven touchdowns versus 10 interceptions. Things won’t get any easier this week as they face a Syracuse team who is averaging 43.3 points per game this season.

What’re the Odds?

Louisville vs Syracuse 11/9/18
Moneyline Odds: Louisville +775, Syracuse -1100
Odds from Sportsbetting.ag as of 11/6/18

Surging In The Rankings

After suffering consecutive losses to Clemson and Pittsburgh couple of weeks ago, the Syracuse Orange have bounced back and have been surging in the rankings. In the latest poll, Syracuse is ranked 13th in the nation after rattling wis over Wake Forest, North Carolina State and North Carolina.

Senior quarterback Eric Dungey was on the verge on being benched and freshman Tommy DeVito was slowly getting minutes. But Dungey has come on strong in their current win streak. He threw for 411 yards with three scores against North Carolina State. The following week, he ran for 119 yards with one touchdown against Wake Forest. Dungey’s ability to both pass and run have made Syracuse the #2 offense in the Atlantic Coast Conference.

Who Wins?

Louisville is winless SU in their last five games played and are also 0-5 SU in their last 5 games on the road. Syracuse is 7-2 SU in their last 9 games and 5-0 SU in their last 5 games played at home. Head to head though, the trends favor Louisville. The Cardinals are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games against the Orange and 5-2 SU in their last seven games against the Orange on the road.

Don’t let the head to head trends deceive you. Last Saturday’s game between Louisville and #2 Clemson had all the makings of a blowout. But even then, nobody expected it to be as bad as it turned out to be. The score was 35-3 at the half and the game ended with a final score of 77-16 in favor of Clemson who gained 601 total yards during the game.

Betting Prediction

Bad as a season they are having, that blowout to Clemson is morally deflating. And I’m not sure if a 2-7 team like Louisville can recover from it, much more recover in a week’s time. The Orange have yet to lose at home this year and it’s hard to imagine them losing to the Cardinals. Syracuse simply has the better team-any angle you look at it and against a demoralized team, it’s a no-brainer for me.

We’re picking the Syracuse Orange to beat the Louisville Cardinals on 11/9/18.

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Other Bets To Make

The Cardinals are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games played and winless ATS in their last five road games. Meanwhile, the Orange are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall but only 6-11-1 ATS in their last 18 games at home. Head to head, Syracuse is only 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games versus Louisville and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games against the Cardinals. The Cardinals are also surprisingly undefeated ATS in their last three meetings against the Orange.

But the Cardinals are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 teams with a winning record, 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an SU defeat and 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games played on field turf. The Orange are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a win and 5-1-1 in their last 7 games on field turf. The spread looks daunting at first glance but Louisville has lost by an average of 26.83 points in their last six games (and losses) and save for their 4 point loss to Florida State, the smallest margin of defeat during this skid is 18 points.

What’re the Odds?

Louisville vs Syracuse 11/9/18
Spread Odds: Louisville +21 (-108), Syracuse -21 (-112)
Odds from Sportsbetting.ag as of 11/6/18

Betting Prediction

Most of the historical trends point to Syracuse but the Orange have not covered well against the Cardinals. But more than the trends this time, it’s about how these teams have played this season. Louisville is 2-7 while Syracuse is 7-2. The Cardinals own the worst offense in the Atlantic Coast Conference this season while the Orange are third in the conference in sacks with 27 this season. Given that Louisville was sacked 6 times against Clemson, this game could get really ugly.

Prediction: Syracuse -21

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The over is 4-1 in Louisville’s last 5 games played and the over is also 3-2 in Syracuse’s last five games played. The total has also gone over in three out of the last five games by the Orange but the under is 11-4 in their last 15 games at home. Head to head though, the over is 2-1 in their last three meetings.

What’re the Odds?

Louisville vs Syracuse 11/9/18
Moneyline Odds: Over 69 -115, Under 69 -105
Odds from Sportsbetting.ag as of 11/6/18

Betting Prediction

This looks like a lost season for the Cardinals and they have given up at least 38 points in their last four games and allowed 77 against Clemson. On the other hand, The Orange look to keep on rolling. They scored 51 against NC State two weeks ago,41 against Wake Forest in their last outing and have topped 40 points in 4 of their last 6 games.

Prediction: Over 69

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Chris Blain