Manny Pacquiao vs Adrien Broner WBA (regular) Welterweight Championship Odds and Prediction

Filipino ring legend and fighting politician Manny Pacquiao returns to the ring to defend his WBA (regular) welterweight championship against former four-division world champion Adrien Broner on Saturday, January 19th at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

The bout marks Pacquiao’s first fight on U.S. soil since defeating Jessie Vargas to win the WBO welterweight title in November 2016. For Broner, it will mark his return to the welterweight division since defeating Adrian Granados in 2017.

Has Pacquiao Grown Old Overnight?

Manny Pacquiao is the only 8-division world champion in boxing history. Pacquiao was the sport’s top pound for pound fighter when Floyd Mayweather Jr. retired. He fought and lost to Mayweather via decision in 2015 but since that loss, Pacquiao has won three out of four bouts. All four bouts were title fights and Pacquiao’s only loss was a controversial split decision to Jeff Horn in Australia. In his most recent bout, Pacquiao won the WBA (regular) welterweight title by knocking out Lucas Matthysse in July 2018.

Pacquiao is already 40 years old and without question is already past his athletic prime. But since his loss to Mayweather, he has remained as one of the elite welterweight in the  business. Although he was obviously slower in his last fight, Pacquiao still showed the hand speed and power that made him one of the sport’s all-time greats. But while Pacquiao has defied his age, father time is unbeaten and for fighters like Pacman who have continued to fight past their primes, they suddenly grow old overnight. The question with Pacquiao though is when and if this is the fight where that happens.

Will Broner Be A Problem?

Adrien Broner was one of the highly touted prospects during his early days. In fact, Broner was the protege of Floyd Mayweather Jr himself. Having the same defensive instincts and clever offensive moves, Broner won world title in four different weight classes. But AB never really reached full superstar status because of his problems outside the ring and his perceived lack of determination to succeed inside it. Not only has Broner been saddled with legal woes in the past, he’s fought bouts where he was passive and even lazy at times.

Broner’s attitude and personal problems are a major issue in this fight because with AB, you’ll never know which one shows up. When he defeated Paulie Malignaggi in 2013, he looked every inch like the genius that Mayweather was. But in his 2017 bout against Mikey Garcia, he looked like an ordinary  journeyman. This Jekyll and Hyde persona makes Broner a betting risk. But if he if 100% focused for this fight, no question Broner has the skills to beat an over the hill Manny Pacquiao.

Who Wins This?

This is the third straight fight where Broner is the underdog. He closed at +900 against Mikey Garcia and at +150 against Jessie Vargas last year. Broner is winless in his last two bouts with one loss and a draw. For Pacquiao, he has been the favorite in his last four fights after being the underdog to Mayweather in 2015. Pacman is 3-1 in those fights with his only loss the debatable split decision against Jeff Horn in Australia.

Broner has the natural advantages over Pacquiao. He is younger, stronger, faster and more athletic. But Pacquiao has the edge in ring IQ and experience. Not to mention that Pacman always comes to his fights 100% ready no matter what. I can recall when Manny fought Miguel Cotto, his country had just been hit by flood and millions of his countrymen were affected one way or another. Despite that, Manny turned in one of his best performances ever.