Manny Pacquiao vs Keith Thurman 7/20/19 Boxing Odds, Prediction, and Pick

Manny Pacquiao and Keith Thurman headline a big PBC card of July 20, 2019, at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

The 40-year old future Hall of Famer is looking to add the WBC (super) welterweight title to his impressive collection. Thurman meanwhile is looking for a signature win that puts him to superstardom.

Manny Pacquiao vs Keith Thurman

Manny Pacquiao is boxing’s only 8-division world champion. The Filipino fighting senator is one of the icons of the sport. But having retired already once and having a politician’s job in his country have slowed down what was once a dynamo. Still, Pacquiao won a secondary world title by stopping Lucas Matthysse last year and he won an easy decision over Adrien Broner last January.

Pacman has a record of 67 wins with seven losses and two draws. 39 of his wins have come via knockout although he only has one stoppage since 2009. Pacquiao is 5-6 in height and has a reach of 67 inches while fighting as a southpaw. The Filipino ring legend is coming off a dominant unanimous decision win over Adrien Broner last January.

Keith Thurman is the former WBA and WBC welterweight champion. He is unbeaten inside the ring but he lost his world titles after taking too much time off the ring due to injuries. Thurman owns wins over Danny Garcia and Shawn Porter. He was unimpressive in his last bout against Josesito Lopez and that’s probably the reason why Pacquiao took this fight.

One-Time is 30 years old and has an unbeaten record of 29-0 with 22 knockouts and one no-contest. He stands 5-7 tall and has a reach of 69 inches while fighting as an orthodox fighter. Thurman struggled to beat journeyman Josesito Lopez via majority decision in his most recent bout.

Who Wins?

Thurman is the boxing betting favorite to win this fight but not much. The reason behind this is that One-Time is coming off a lackluster performance against Josesito Lopez. He won that fight no doubt, but he showed more vulnerability than ever. On the other hand, Pacquiao is coming off back to back sensational performances against Lucas Matthysse and Adrien Broner. But while Pacquiao proved that he still has the goods to compete against the best, writing off Thurman after one bad fight is unfair.

Thurman is undefeated and has beaten the likes of Danny Garcia and Shawn Porter who are among the current batch of welterweight elites. He is only 30 years old and is still in the prime of his athletic career. He was coming off an injury and a long layoff when he fought Lopez so maybe we should give him the benefit of doubt here.

We all know how Manny Pacquiao climbed the ranks and won world titles in eight weight classes ( or six as some would protest ). But great as Pacquiao is and impressive as his achievements are, what he has been unable to do is carry his punching power to the welterweight division. Sure, he’s looked great at this weight class but the fact that he only has one knockout since 2009 is proof that he isn’t a true welterweight.

Thurman may not punch as hard as Manny but he is naturally the bigger man and he may manhandle Pacquiao the way Jeff Horn did during Pacman’s controversial loss. One good way to stop Pacquiao’s assault is to maul him. That’s what Horn did and he won, controversy or not.

An interesting stat in this fight is that Pacquiao has fought only orthodox fighters in the last 11 years while Thurman has not fought a southpaw opponent since 2015. Considering Thurman is an orthodox fighter and Pacquiao is a southpaw, this should play a part in this fight.

I think Pacquiao outboxes Thurman in this fight as One-Time is going to find out first hand how awkward Pacquiao and his angles are. But since Pacquiao is not unhittable, Thurman’s investment in body punches could take its toll in the later rounds. This is where I think age will play a factor. I think Pacquiao tires late and Thurman gets the stoppage. Prediction: Keith Thurman

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Yordenis Ugas vs Omar Figueroa Jr.

Yordenis Ugas is a Cuban welterweight who challenged for the WBC welterweight title and lost to Shawn Porter. Ugas is a very decorated amateur fighter who won the bronze medal at the 2008 Olympics and the gold medal at the 2005 World Amateur Championships as well as 2007 Pan American games.

The 32-year old from Santiago de Cuba has a record of 23-4 with 11 wins by way of knockout. Ugas stands 5-9 and has a reach of 69 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance. In his last fight, Ugas lost a narrow split decision to Porter in his first ever crack at a world title.

Omar Figueroa is the former WBC lightweight champion. He won that belt by defeating Nihito Arakawa in a 2013 fight of the year candidate and successfully defended it twice. Figueroa has fought just four times after his successful title defense against Daniel Estrada in 2014.

The 29-year old from Weslaco, Texas stands 5-7 ½ with a reach of 73 inches. Figueroa has a record of 28-0-1 with 19 knockouts. Panterita’s last four wins have come against world champions in Ricky Burns, Antonio DeMarco, Robert Guerrero, and John Molina Jr.

Who Wins?

Ugas is coming off a strong performance against Shawn Porter. Although he lost, he gave a good account of himself and did better than what everybody expected. He’s an excellent boxer with a great amateur pedigree. On the other hand, Figueroa is unbeaten but has fought sporadically in the last five years. He’s only 29 though and has all the tools to be a world champion. I think this is going to be a very good fight between two fighters who are on the border of being elite. For Figueroa, it may be now or never. I think Figueroa will go for the big win but Ugas will try to box and counter him. I don’t think Figueroa can catch Ugas nor do I think Ugas can hurt Figueroa who has a granite chin. This one goes the distance and I think Ugas’ amateur background helps him win a close decision. Prediction: Yordenis Ugas

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Sergey Lipinets vs John Molina Jr.

Sergey Lipinets is the former IBF junior welterweight champion.who was born in Kazakhstan. He was originally a kickboxer who competed for promotions like the 2012 W.A.K.O, European Championships and the 2013 World Combat Games. Lipinets was also the former WBC Silver international and WBC Latino 140-pound champion.

The 30-year old Lipinets stands 5-7 and has a reach of 67 inches. He owns a professional record of 15-1 with 11 knockouts. In his most recent fight, Lipinets scored a 10th round TKO over former 140-pound champion Lamont Peterson last March. His only loss is a twelve round decision against Mikey Garcia.

John Molina Jr. is a former WBC lightweight champion who has shared the ring with some of the best boxers of this era. Molina has faced the likes of Terence Crawford, Ruslan Provodnikov, Adrien Broner, Humberto Soto, Lucas Matthysse, Andrey Klimov and Antonio DeMarco.

The 36-year old veteran has a record of 30-8 with 24 knockouts. Molina stands 5-10 and has a reach of 72 inches while fighting as an orthodox fighter. Molina has lost five out of his last eight bouts. In his last fight, Molina lost via 12-round unanimous decision to Omar Figueroa last February.

Who Wins?

If this were the John Molina of 2010, this would be a war that could easily beat out the main event for Fight of the Night honors. But we’re in 2019 and Molina is now 36 with plenty of mileage on that body. Molina has fought some of the best names in boxing, but he lost many of those bouts and the wear and tear have been obvious in recent fights. Lipinets isn’t the best of boxers but is a heavy puncher who knows how to finish his opponents. For Molina to get his opportunities, he will have to risk getting hit. I expect a firefight early but I think Lipinets comes on stronger after a couple of rounds. He slows down Molina and knocks him out late. Prediction: Sergey Lipinets

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Luis Nery vs Juan Carlos Payano

Luis Nery is the former Ring and WBC bantamweight champion. He won the belts by defeating Shinsuke Yamanaka in August 2017. However, Nery failed a post-fight drug test which was later blamed on tainted beef. He was stripped of the Ring title and the WBC ordered a rematch. He beat Yamanaka again in the rematch but lost the belt on the scales by weighing three pounds over the limit.

Nery is undefeated in 29 bouts and has 23 wins by way of knockout. The 24-year old from Mexico is a southpaw who stands 5-5 and has a reach of 66 inches. In his last bout, Nery forced former world champion, McJoe Arroyo, to quit after four rounds during their bout at the Spence-Garcia undercard last March. Nery has stopped 14 out of his last 15 opponents including the last 10.

Juan Carlos Payano is a former WBA (regular) and IBO bantamweight champion. The Dominican boxer represented his country as an amateur, winning silver medals in the 2003 and 2007 Pan-American Games and a gold medal at the 2006 Central American and Carribean Games. Payano also represented the Dominican Republic at the 2004 and 2008 Summer Olympics. He lost in the 2nd round of competition in both Olympic appearances.

Payano stands 5-5 tall and has a reach of 64.5 inches while fighting out of the southpaw stance. The 35-year old has a record of 21-2 with 9 knockouts. His losses have come against Rau’shee Warren via majority decision during their rematch in 2016 and to Naoya Inoue via first-round knockout last year.

Who Wins?

Luis Nery is on another level right now and the only other bantamweight on the same plane as him is the Naoya “Monster” Inoue. But since Inoue is booked to fight Nonito Donaire, Nery will have to settle for a “low reward” bout against a former champion in Payano. Payano is a tough as nails fighter but he is already 35 years old and we saw him got stopped in the first round by Inoue two fights ago. I think Payano will go for broke early but Nery will match him power for power. I think the younger fighter is also the stronger puncher here. Nery won’t stop Payano in Round 1 like Inoe did but I don’t think this fight goes past Round 4 as Nery has too much power for Payano to handle. Prediction: Luis Nery

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