Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays 08/02/2021 MLB Odds, Preview, and Prediction

The Seattle Mariners hit the road and open a three-game set against the Tampa Bay Rays on Monday in the Sunshine State.

Seattle lost 4-3 to the Texas Rangers on Sunday, as Jonah Heim hit his second consecutive walk-off homer to beat the Mariners. Texas won the first game of that series but dropped the last two behind Heim’s homers.

Tampa Bay has climbed to the top of the AL East team standings after a clean 3-0 sweep of the Boston Red Sox in their recent series.

These teams have played four times this season and Seattle has won all of those matchups.

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners head to this game having lost four out of their last five games. Their last two losses have been by walk-off home runs by the same hitter. They enter this game in third place in the AL West team standings with a record of 56-50, 8 games behind the leaders Houston Astros and 2.5 games behind the Oakland A’s for the second wild card spot in the AL.

Chris Flexen will take the mound for the Mariners on Monday for his 20th start of the season. Flexen comes in with a record of 9-5 with an ERA of 3.81 and a WHIP of 1.252 with 22 walks and 69 strikeouts over 108.2 innings of pitch work. Flexen took the loss in his last start last Tuesday against the Astros, giving up seven runs on nine hits in four innings of action.

Seattle has the worst batting average in baseball at .221. Their slugging percentage is just a little better at .383 but is still 26th in the majors. The Mariners’ 446 runs scored this season are ranked only 20th in the entire league. Kyle Seager has been their best offensive weapon with 17 doubles, 22 home runs, and a team-best 61 RBI.

What are the Moneyline Odds?

Mariners

+144

Rays

-166

Odds from BetOnline as of 08/02/2021

Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays have won four straight games and they head to this series having swept the Boston Red Sox 3-0 in their most recent set. Tampa Bay has overtaken Boston for the top spot in the AL East and now lead their division rivals by 1.5 games. The Rays now look to ride high on their momentum and solidify their division lead.

Michael Wacha will open on top of the mound for the Rays in Game 1 of this season. This will be Wacha’s 19th appearance and his 14th start this season. He has posted a record of 2-2 with an ERA of 4.79 and a WHIP of 1.304. Wacha has a total of 19 walks and 66 strikeouts in a total of 71.1 innings of work this season. He did not factor in his last start last Wednesday against the Yankees where he conceded one run on three hits with one walk and nine strikeouts.

Tampa Bay ranks only 22nd in batting average at .234 and they have the 13th best slugging percentage at .407. However, the Rays have scored the third most runs in the majors this season. Austin Meadows is their most consistent hitter with 20 home runs and a team-high 76 RBI.

Who Wins?

Seattle is 2-4 in their last six games played. They are 1-4 in their last five games played against the American League. However, the Mariners are 4-0 in their last four Monday games, 4-1 in their last five Game 1 of a series, 5-2 in their last seven games as underdogs, and 9-3 in their last 12 games against an opponent with a winning record.

Tampa Bay is 9-3 in their last 12 games played and 4-1 in their last five home games. The Rays are 7-1 in their last eight games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, 12-3 in their last 15 games against an opponent with a winning record, 38-13 in their last 51 Monday games, and 64-23 in their last 87 home games as favorites

Flexen has a team-best 9 wins but he’s struggled in his last two outings, allowing a combined nine runs on 15 hits in 9 ⅓ innings. On the other hand, Tampa Bay has won in three out of the last four starts by Wacha and during that period, the right-hander has conceded 9 runs on 18 hits across 20 innings.

With pitching not expected to be a real difference-maker here and the Mariners sputtering as of late, I will have to go with the Rays. They have the momentum and are also playing at their home field. And yes, they are also 12-3 in their last 15 games against opponents with a winning record.

Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays -166

Over/Under Betting

The total has gone over in each of the last five games played by Seattle. The Mariners have seen the total go over in each of their last four starts against right-handers. The over is also 5-0 in Seattle’s last five games when the total is set between 7 to 8.5, 4-1 in their last five games against an opponent with a winning record, 4-1 in their last five games as underdogs, 7-2 in their last nine Game 1 of a series, and 11-4 in their last 15 road games.

The total has gone over in five out of the Rays’ last seven games on astroturf. The over is also 5-2 in their last seven games against a left-handed pitcher, and 4-2 in their last six home games. Tampa Bay has also seen the total go over in five out of their last seven head-to-head games against the Mariners. The over is also 5-0 when playing at home against Seattle.

Flexen’s road issues are concerning. His last 10 starts have seen an average total of 8.2 runs per game but when he’s pitching on the road, that average jumps to 12.57 runs per game.

Meanwhile, Wacha has seen the over hit in three out of his last four starts. His last 8 starts overall have yielded an average of 7.29 runs per game and he sports an ERA of 4.79.

The Rays have scored the most runs in the majors with 528 and they have averaged 6.4 runs per game in their last 10 games. Given how Flexen has struggled on the road, this game should produce a total higher than 8 runs.

Prediction: Over 8.5

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