Miami Marlins vs New York Mets 07/07/2022 MLB Odds and Prediction

The Miami Marlins and New York Mets open a week-ending series at Citi Field on Thursday night.

Miami is 39-41 on the season and they are currently in 4th place in the NL East Division and are 11 games off the pace of their division leaders, which happens to be their opponent on Thursday- the Mets. New York is 51-31 on the season and they hold a 2.5 games lead over the Atlanta Braves in the division standings.

These teams have played seven times this season with the Mets winning five of those games, including three of four last month at Citi Field.

The Mets however, enter this series with a mediocre 5-5 record in their last 10 games played. New York was on the verge of losing again on Wednesday night but they were able to salvage the win with five runs scored in the 10th inning for an 8-3 win over the Cincinnati Reds. Meanwhile, the Marlins won six in a row before losing their last game against the Los Angeles Angels.

Miami Marlins

The Marlins had a poor start to the season and that’s why they are languishing in 4th place in the NL East. The offense has picked up as of late and the Marlins head to this game having won seven out of their last 10 games played. Miami won six consecutive games before Shohei Ohtani beat them last Wednesday.

Miami has been winning lately despite missing two of their best bats in Jorge Soler and Jazz Chisolm Jr. Garrett Cooper is batting at .315 with an OPS of .382 as of late while Manuel Rojas has been hitting .333 during the past week. Although not explosive, the Marlins’ offense ranks among the upper half of the league in most categories.

Daniel Castano will open on top of the hill for the Marlins. The 27-year-old left-hander from Orlando, Florida is 1-1 with an ERA of 2.42 and a WHIP of 1.35 in four starts this season. Castano has allowed a total of 7 earned run on 26 hits with 3 home runs, 15 strikeouts, and 9 walks.

Castano allowed one earned run on four hits in 5.0 innings pitched while picking up the win during a 5-3 win over Washington. The Marlins have been victorious in each of his last three starts.

New York Mets

The Mets were one of the hottest teams at the start of the season. However, after establishing a huge division lead, they have allowed their rivals to come close to them in the team standings. The Mets nearly lost again on Wednesday but they rallied in the 9th inning and scored 5 runs in the 10th to beat the Cincinnati Reds.

New York has a balanced lineup led by Jeff McNeil who has a batting average of .319 and an OBP of .377. Then there is Pete Alonso who has been a monster with 22 HRs and 69 RBIs on the season. Starling Marte has been huge too with his 81 hits. With the Mets’ pitching struggling, the offense will have to step up again for them to win this game.

For the Mets, it will be Trevor Williams who gets the nod to open the game. The 30-year-old right-hander from San Diego, California isn’t having a good year so far. Williams has started in seven games and has a record of 1-5 with a WHIP of 1.14. He has allowed 22 earned runs on 47 hits in 45.2 innings pitched.

Williams lasted just 3.2 innings in his most recent outing. In that game, he gave up three earned runs on five hits as the Mets lost 7-3 to the Texas Rangers. The Mets are 2-7 in his last nine starts with losses in each of the last five games.

Marlins vs Mets Betting Prediction

The Marlins are 2-6 in their last eight games against the Mets. Miami is also 9-26 in their last 35 road games against the New York Mets.

The Marlins are:

• 6-0 in their last 6 games played overall.

• 32-65 in their last 97 road games.

• 6-0 in their last 6 games on grass.

• 5-0 in their last 5 games versus. a right-handed starter.

• 4-0 in their last 4 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.

• 4-0 in their last 4 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

• 6-1 in their last 7 Thursday games.

• 18-37 in their last 55 road games against a right-handed starter.

• 21-47 in their last 68 during Game 1s of a series.

• 2-5 in their last 7 against a team with a winning record.

• 0-5 in their last 5 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

• 0-5 in their last 5 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

• 4-12 in their last 16 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

The Mets are:

• 15-5 in their last 20 home games.

• 7-0 in their last 7 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

• 6-0 in their last 6 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

• 7-1 in their last 8 Thursday games.

• 12-3 in their last 15 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.

• 22-6 in their last 28 Game 1s of a series.

• 20-6 in their last 26 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.

• 6-2 in their last 8 home games versus a left-handed starter.

• 26-9 in their last 35 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.

• 8-3 in their last 11 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

• 10-4 in their last 14 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

• 44-20 in their last 64 home games vs. a team with a losing record.

• 40-19 in their last 59 against National League East.

• 45-22 in their last 67 versus a team with a losing record.

• 1-4 in their last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

• 0-4 in their last 4 games opposite a left-handed starter.

What are the Moneyline Odds?

Marlins

+138

Mets

-149

Odds from BetOnline as of 07/07/2022

Daniel Castano has been throwing the ball well in four starts as he’s produced an ERA of 2.42 and he’s allowed only seven earned runs in his last five games played. On the other side, Trevor Williams has an ERA of 4.34 on the season but is better at Citifield with an ERA of 3.74.

The Miami bullpen is ranked 19th overall with an ERA of 4.21. Meanwhile, the Mets are 11th in baseball with a reliever ERA of 3.61. The Marlins also rank 21st with a batting average of .246 with runners in scoring position while the Mets are second in the majors with a batting average of .268 with runners in scoring position.

Neither team has a significant advantage when it comes to the starting pitcher. However, the Mets have the clear edge when the starters go out as they have a much better bullpen. New York also takes better advantage of its scoring opportunities and is the better offensive team here. I’ll take the home team to pick up the victory.

Prediction: New York Mets

Marlins vs Mets Over/Under Predictions

The over and under is 5-5 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams. The under is 2-1 in their last three meetings in New York.

Miami Marlins over/under trends:

• Under is 6-1 in the Marlins’ last 7 overall.

• Under is 5-1 in the Marlins’ last 6 road games.

• Under is 5-0 in the Marlins’ last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

• Under is 4-0 in the Marlins’ last 4 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

• Under is 6-1 in the Marlins’ last 7 on grass.

• Under is 6-1 in the Marlins’ last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.

• Under is 5-1 in the Marlins’ last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.

• Under is 4-1-1 in the Marlins’ last 6 vs. National League East.

• Under is 4-1 in the Marlins’ last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.

• Under is 3-1-1 in the Marlins’ last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.

• Under is 37-17-1 in the Marlins’ last 55 Thursday games.

New York Mets over/under trends:

• Over is 11-8-1 in the Mets’ last 20 games played.

• Over is 13-7 in the Mets’ last 20 home games.

• Over is 12-8 in the Mets’ last 20 games as home favorites.

• Over is 12-8 in the Mets’ last 20 games as favorites in any venue.

• Over is 3-2 in the Mets’ last five games played in July.

• Over is 8-4 in the Mets’ last 12 games against an opponent from the National League.

• Over is 9-4 in the Mets’ last 13 games against a team from the National League East Division.

• Over is 18-12-1 in the Mets’ last 31 home games against the National League.

• Over is 5-1 in the Mets’ last six Game 1s of a series.

The Mets have scored 19 runs in their last four games, and that includes their July 5 games where they were shut out by the Reds. Meanwhile, the Marlins have averaged 4.2 runs per game scored in their last six games. If you add those up, the total should be over 9 runs in this game.

The Marlins should see their offense continue to grow in this game. They should be able to take advantage of Williams’ issues on the mound. Meanwhile, the Mets have one of the deepest lineups in the majors and while their pitching could be their downfall here, they should be able to produce more than enough runs to help push the score over the posted total.

Prediction: Over 9

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