Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors 05/18/2022 NBA Odds and Predictions

The Dallas Mavericks look to continue their giant-killing ways as they face the Golden State Warriors in Game 1 of the 2022 Western Conference Finals on Wednesday night at Chase Center.

Dallas upended the top-seeded Phoenix Suns in round two, blowing out the Suns in Games 6 and 7 to complete the upset. Luka Doncic was sensational once again for Dallas and this time around, he got the needed support from Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie.

Meanwhile, the Warriors got a big break when Ja Morant suffered a season-ending knee injury. With Morant out, the Warriors went on to win the last two games of the series and advance to the Conference Finals. The Splash Brothers had their share of shooting woes in the series but with a third Splash brother emerging in Jordan Poole, the Warriors outgunned the Grizzlies.

Both these teams upset their higher-seeded foes in the previous round with the 3rd seeded Dubs eliminating the no. 2 Memphis Grizzlies. Meanwhile, 4th seeded Dallas sent home the no. 1 seeded Phoenix Suns.

The last time these two teams met in the postseason was 15 years ago when the 8th seed Warriors who won 25 fewer games than the top-seeded Mavs during the regular season pulled off the stunning upset in what is now known as the “We Believe” series.

Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic scored 27 first-half points in Game 7 against the Suns, matching the point total of the entire Suns team. The Mavs led 57-27 at the half and never looked back. Doncic and Dinwiddie became the first set of teammates to score 30+ points in a Game 7 since Kobe and Shaq in 2002 and the Mavericks sent home the team with the best record in the NBA during the regular season.

Dallas was 52-30 during the regular season and the Mavs were 23-18 on the road and 36-16 against opponents from the Western Conference. Luka Doncic is putting up 31.5 points per game in the playoffs while Brunson is a surprise 22.9 PPG contributor and Dinwiddie a solid 13.2 PPG scorer. The Mavs have shot just 45.3% from the field in the postseason but are 39.5% from the three-point range.

Check out our Top 5 Plays of the Week from Round 2!@att | #dALLasIN pic.twitter.com/1q6bYUBdXk

— x – Dallas Mavericks (@dallasmavs) May 18, 2022

Golden State Warriors

The Splash Brothers combined for 59 points in Game 6 against Memphis with Klay Thompson leading the way with 30 points while making 8 three-pointers. Steph Curry had 29 and made six triples for a double-barreled attack. Draymond Green had another brilliant all-around game with 14 points, 15 rebounds, and 8 assists while Kevon Looney grabbed a game-high 22 rebounds.

Golden State won one more game than Dallas during the regular season with a record of 52-39. The Dubs were 31-10 at home this season and had a record of 33-19 against rivals from the Western Conference. Curry is putting up 26.9 PPG in the postseason and is the betting favorite to win Finals MVP. Klay Thompson is averaging 20.4 PPG as he looks to get his old form back after missing two years. Golden State is making 48.3% of their shots from the floor and 37.7% of their three-pointers.

Who Wins?

The Mavs have won eight out of their last 10 head-to-head meetings against the Warriors. Dallas is also 4-1 SU in their last five games played in Golden State.

The Mavericks are:

• 4-1 SU in their last five games played.

• 2-4 SU in their last six games played on the road.

• 19-14 SU in 33 road games against the Western Conference.

• 9-3 SU in their last 12 games played against an opponent from the Pacific Division.

The Warriors are:

• 13-3 SU in their last 16 games played.

• 8-0 SU in their last eight games played at home.

• 5-2 SU in their last seven games against the Western Conference.

• 25-7 SU in 32 home games played against an opponent from the Western Conference.

Dallas defeated Golden State 3-1 in their season series with Luka Doncic outsourcing Steph Curry in all four games played. But the Mavs did not face a healthy Dubs team with Draymond Green missing three of those games and Klay Thompson absent in two. Golden State is close to 100% healthy now and the Memphis Grizzlies realized how tough to beat they are when at full strength.

The Warriors will also get head coach Steve Kerr back after missing three games due to COVID-19 protocols. Likewise, the Dubs are expected to have Otto Porter Jr. back while Andre Iguodala could rejoin the team as early as Game 2. Only Gary Payton II who fractured his elbow against the Grizzlies will be out of commission for the Warriors.

With these developments, Golden State has emerged as a sizable betting favorite to win this series. But don’t tell that to the Dallas Mavericks who were an even bigger underdog against the Phoenix Suns in the previous round.

Doncic was sensational in the two elimination games for the Mavericks. In Game 7, he set the tone with an impressive first-half performance where he matched the Suns’ total scoring output. For the entire series, Luka scored more points than Booker, had more assists than CP3, had more rebounds than Ayton, and had more steals than Bridges.

But while the Suns were reportedly dealing silently with injuries to key players, the Warriors are not. Though Golden State had some rough shooting games against Memphis, the veteran team always found ways to win games with timely shooting and heads-up plays.

Golden State has held opponents to 42.2% shooting at Chase Center and that’s going to be a problem for a Dallas team that relies heavily on Luka Doncic. Sure, Dinwiddie and Brunson have provided Doncic the much-needed support against Phoenix but the Warriors are an excellent defensive team. Give me the Warriors to limit Doncic’s effect on the game. With Luka unable to dominate, the Warriors should pick up the Game 1 win and set the tone for the series.

Prediction: Golden State Warriors

Mavericks at Warriors – Spread Betting Prediction

The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games played against the Warriors. Dallas is also 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Golden State.

The Mavericks are:

• 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

• 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600.

• 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 2 days’ rest.

• 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight-up win of more than 10 points.

• 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS win.

• 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

• 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning straight-up record.

• 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight-up win.

• 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against an opponent from the Western Conference.

• 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Conference Finals games.

• 43-19-1 ATS in their last 63 road games against an opponent with a home winning percentage greater than .600.

• 27-13 ATS in their last 40 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

• 53-26-2 ATS in their last 81 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

The Warriors are:

• 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.

• 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games.

• 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 Conference Finals games.

• 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 3 or more days rest.

• 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

• 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.

• 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600.

• 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

• 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.

• 2-6 ATS in their last 8 playoff games as a favorite.

• 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning straight-up record.

• 2-7 ATS in their last 9 Wednesday games.

• 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

• 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up win.

The Suns carry the momentum of their back-to-back blowout wins over the Phoenix Suns to Game 1. But they will be facing a well-rested Golden State team that isn’t just ready to play them but who has been here many times before.

Golden State has looked terrific at home and they have been able to cover the spread well when playing at Chase Center. I expect Doncic, Brunson, and Dinwiddie to give it a good fight but in the end, the trio of Curry, Thompson, and Poole should be more prolific and Golden State’s defense is going to help them cover the spread here.

Prediction: Warriors -5

Mavericks at Warriors – Over/Under Betting Prediction

The total has gone over in 12 out of the last 16 meetings between these two teams. The under is also 2-1 in their last three head-to-head meetings played in Golden State.

Dallas Mavericks over/under trends:

• Under is 4-1 in the Mavericks’ last 5 overall.

• Under is 4-1 in the Mavericks’ last 5 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600.

• Under is 5-2 in the Mavericks’ last 7 games following an ATS win.

• Under is 5-2 in the Mavericks’ last 7 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

• Under is 5-2 in the Mavericks’ last 7 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

• Under is 47-23 in the Mavericks’ last 70 games as an underdog.

• Over is 4-1 in the Mavericks’ last 5 Wednesday games.

• Over is 4-1 in the Mavericks’ last 5 games playing on 2 days rest.

• Over is 10-3 in the Mavericks’ last 13 games against a team with a winning straight-up record.

• Over is 8-3 in the Mavericks’ last 11 road games.

• Over is 5-2 in the Mavericks’ last 7 games as a road underdog.

• Over is 7-3 in the Mavericks’ last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Golden State Warriors over/under trends:

• Under is 7-2 in Warriors’ last 9 Conference Finals games.

• Under is 12-5 in Warriors’ last 17 Wednesday games.

• Under is 7-3 in Warriors’ last 10 home games against a team with a winning road record.

• Under is 5-1 in the Warriors’ last six Wednesday home games.

• Under is 3-2 in the Warriors’ last five home games.

• Under is 19-11-2 in Warriors’ last 32 home games against the Western Conference.

• Over is 8-4 in the Warriors’ last 12 games played overall.

• Over is 4-1 in the Warriors’ last 5 games following an ATS win.

• Over is 7-2 in the Warriors’ last 9 games following a straight-up win.

• Over is 15-5-1 in the Warriors’ last 21 games playing on 3 or more days rest.

• Over is 8-3 in the Warriors’ last 11 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

• Over is 5-2 in the Warriors’ last 7 games following a straight-up win of more than 10 points.

These two teams have combined to score an average of 233 points per game in their last 10 meetings. The Mavs and Warriors combined to score an average of 211.5 points per game in their four head to head meetings this season but if we take away the one game that Klay Thompson missed, that average goes up to 221.67

No question both are excellent scoring teams. Golden State is the highest-scoring team in the playoffs at 114.2 points per game while Dallas is just 10th but still putting up 106.2 PPG. The Mavs rank 1st in the playoffs in three-pointers made while the Warriors are third. With their ability to knock down the three-ball, this should be a high-scoring contest.

Prediction: Over 214.5

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