Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors Game 2 Betting Preview

The Dallas Mavericks look to even the 2022 Western Conference finals when they visit the Golden State Warriors at the Chase Center on Friday night.

Golden State ran away with Game 1 after shutting down Luka Doncic and the Mavs’ three-point shooting. The Dubs’ offense was also on point as seven players scored in double digits. Meanwhile, Dallas shot only 34% from the field and 22% on their three-pointers in a massive letdown after an impressive Game 7 performance against the Phoenix Suns.

Game 3 will be in Dallas so expect the Warriors too to come out firing as they try to hold serve and pack a 2-0 lead heading to Texas. The spread line opened at six points and has gone up to 6.5 with the early betting money going to Golden State after the blowout in Game 1.

Dallas Mavericks

If there’s something positive in Dallas’ Game 1 loss, it’s that that things can’t get any worse than it. Having said that, the law of averages says that the Mavs will bounce back with better shooting, both from the field and from deep. Luka Doncic is coming off his lowest-scoring game in the playoffs so expect him to bounce back with a big Game 2 as well.

Jalen Brunson shot only 6-16 for 14 points while Maxi Kleber made only one three-pointer for three points. If the Mavs want to beat the Dubs, they need more than Doncic and Dinwiddie to do the job for them. Brunson and Kleber have been big for Dallas in the playoffs, they need to show up in Game 2 for them to have a chance to win the game.

Golden State Warriors

The Dubs were firing from all cylinders in Game 1. Every member of the starting unit scored in double digits while Otto Porter scored 10 off the bench while putting the clamps on Doncic. Jordan Poole had another big game and the Dubs didn’t really have to flex all their muscles to win Game 1 as the game turned into a blowout before the 4th period.

Andrew Wiggins turned out to be an ace on defense against Doncic, much like Grant Williams was against Giannis in the East semifinals. Not only did Wiggins hold Doncic to 33% shooting, but he also forced Luka to commit seven turnovers in the game. Wiggins also contributed heavily on offense with 19 points so he was a huge bonus for Steve Kerr in Game 1. Hopefully, he keeps up his play in Game 2.

Who Wins?

The Mavericks have won seven out of their last 10 matchups against the Warriors. Dallas is also 4-2 SU in their last six games against Golden State.

Dallas is:

• 12-6 SU in their last 18 games played.

• 2-4 SU in their last six games played on the road.

• 4-2 SU in their last six games played in May.

• 44-22 SU in their last 66 games against the Western Conference.

• 19-15 SU in 33 road games against the Western Conference.

Golden State is:

• 14-3 SU in their last 17 games played.

• 9-0 SU in their last nine games played at home.

• 4-1 SU in their last five games played against the Western Conference.

• 26-7 SU in their last 33 home games against opponents from the Western Conference.

The Warriors rolled to a seventh consecutive win at home in the current postseason in Game 1. In that game, they shot 56.1% from the field and 34.2% from deep while holding the Mavericks to only 36.0 shooting from the floor and 22.9% on their three-point shots. Golden State also outrebounded Dallas 51-35 in a dominating performance.

But perhaps the biggest accomplishment for the Dubs was limiting Mavs star Luka Doncic to only 20 points on 6-18 shooting. That stands as Doncic’s lowest-scoring game in the current playoffs, eclipsing the 26 he scored in Game 6 against Utah in Round 1. Andrew Wiggins was the man responsible for putting the cuffs on the Slovenian star and if the Warriors want to go to Dallas with a 2-0 lead, Wiggins must limit Luka again on Friday.

Doncic took the blame for the Mavs loss but aside from Doncic having a bad game, Dallas also shot terribly from three-point distance and that was what set the tempo for the game. In the first quarter alone, the Mavs made only three out of 19 three-point attempts and ended up trailing 28-18 after the opening 12 minutes of the game. They never recovered from that poor start as the Dubs built on their lead in the second half until it became a blowout.

Jalen Brunson went 0-5 from deep and Davis Bertans 0-4. Reggie Bullock made three but missed seven three-pointers. Doncic was also just 3-7 from deep. Dallas has lived and died with the three-point shot in the playoffs and that doesn’t look like a good game plan against a team with Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. I just don’t see how Dallas outguns Golden State from deep.

If the Mavs shoot better, this should be a more competitive game. But even then, I expect the championship experience of the Warriors to come through for them in a close game. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson have big scoring nights while Draymond Green will dictate the defensive side of things for the Warriors. Overall, it should result in another home win.

Prediction: Golden State Warriors

Mavericks at  Warriors Game 2 Spread Prediction:

The Mavs are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games played against the Warriors. Dallas is also 6-2 ATS in their last eight games played in Golden State.

The Mavericks are:

• 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.

• 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

• 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 day’s rest.

• 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS loss.

• 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Friday games.

• 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Conference Finals games.

• 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning straight-up record.

• 38-16 ATS in their last 54 games following a straight-up loss.

• 43-20-1 ATS in their last 64 road games against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.

• 45-21 ATS in their last 66 games following a straight-up loss of more than 10 points.

• 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600.

• 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.

• 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

• 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.

The Warriors are:

• 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up win of more than 10 points.

• 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.

• 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite.

• 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 Conference Finals games.

• 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 Friday games.

• 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 home games versus a team with a winning road record.

• 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.

• 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games against an opponent with a winning percentage above .600.

• 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 day’s rest.

• 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.

• 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

• 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as the betting favorite.

• 2-6 ATS in their last 8 playoff games as betting favorites.

• 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against a team with a winning straight-up record.

• 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up win.

• 1-6 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

I’m not sure what adjustments the Mavs can work out in two days. The Warriors were simply just a juggernaut on offense and tough on defense. One thing’s sure, Luka Doncic should bounce back with a strong game but with the Splash Brothers swishing the nets right now, Jason Kidd needs more than Luka to deliver big time in Game 2.

We’ve seen Dinwiddie and Brunson help Doncic with the scoring in previous playoff wins but against Golden State, they are up against a strong defensive team with an impressive defensive anchor in Draymond Green and a beast of a perimeter defender in Klay Thompson.

Except for Game 7 against the Suns, the Mavs haven’t been a good ATS team on the road in the postseason as they were just 2-5 ATS before that. Meanwhile, the Dubs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games played at Oracle. Give me the Warriors to win by 8 or more points in a much more competitive game.

Prediction: Warriors -6.5

Mavericks at Warriors Game 2 Over/Under Prediction:

The total has gone under in 12 out of the last 17 head-to-head meetings between these two teams.

Mavericks over/under trends:

• Under is 5-1 in the Mavericks’ last 6 games played overall.

• Under is 4-0 in the Mavericks’ last 4 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

• Under is 5-1 in the Mavericks’ last 6 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

• Under is 5-1 in the Mavericks’ last 6 Friday games.

• Under is 5-1 in the Mavericks’ last 6 games versus. a team with a winning percentage above .600.

• Under is 13-3 in the Mavericks’ last 16 games following a straight-up loss of more than 10 points.

• Under is 4-1 in the Mavericks’ last 5 playoff games as an underdog.

• Under is 30-12-1 in the Mavericks’ last 43 games following an ATS loss.

• Under is 9-4 in the Mavericks’ last 13 games following a straight-up loss.

• Under is 36-16 in the Mavericks’ last 52 games playing on 1 day’s rest.

• Under is 11-5 in the Mavericks’ last 16 Conference Finals games.

• Under is 48-23 in the Mavericks’ last 71 games as an underdog.

• Over is 8-3 in the Mavericks’ last 11 road games.

• Over is 5-2 in the Mavericks’ last 7 games as a road underdog.

• Over is 10-4 in the Mavericks’ last 14 games against an opponent with a winning straight-up record.

• Over is 7-3 in the Mavericks’ last 10 road games against. a team with a winning home record.

Warriors over/under trends:

• Under is 4-2 in the Warriors’ last six games played.

• Under is 6-0 in the Warriors’ last six home games played on a Friday.

• Under is 4-1 in the Warriors; last 5 games as a home favorite.

• Under is 8-2 in the Warriors’ last 10 Conference Finals games.

• Under is 4-1 in the Warriors’ last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record.

• Under is 4-1 in the Warriors’ last 5 home games.

• Under is 5-2 in the Warriors’ last 7 games when playing on 1 day’s rest.

• Over is 8-3 in the Warriors’ last 11 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

• Over is 7-3 in the Warriors’ last 10 games following a straight-up win.

These teams have combined to score an average of 214 points per game in their last three head-to-head meetings including only 199 in Game 1. No question, the Dubs have the defense to hold down the Mavs who were never among the top scoring teams in the league even before this series. As I said earlier, the Mavs live and die with the three-point shot and for as long as the Warriors continue to contest their attempts, they shouldn’t get red hot from deep.

Dallas is the third-best defensive team in the postseason at only 102.6 points per game allowed. They are also just 10th in scoring at 104.9 points per game. I don’t think Dallas can beat Golden State in a shootout so Jason Kidd will have his boys play their best defense with the hopes of limiting the Golden State point production.

As for the Dubs, they are just 7th in the postseason in scoring defense but we know that they are much better than that. Golden State has relied on offense for most of the postseason. Now that we’re nearer to the finals, Steve Kerr is sharpening their defensive skills. This game will be won by defense.

Prediction: Under 214

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